Joined Mar 2007
Status: Señor Member
There is no guarantee that the Fed is done raising. In fact I *think* they will raise at least 25bp more, if not 50bp before this tightening cycle is over. The BoJ, on the other hand, doesn't seem to have any reason to raise and even if they do, the long term effect on the currency market will be but a blip on your charts. The only realistic positive for JPY at this point seems to be news relating to China, such as further tightening, investment controls/taxes, or a serious widening of the CNY trading band against USD. Any combination of these occurrences would most likely see JPY gain some value as a result of risk aversion (investors scrambling to exit their JPY funded positions, similar to March 2007) as well as an increase in Japanese exports which would become more competitive if the yuan is allowed to appreciate.