Sonic R. System

Yeah, and that's ridiculous (see pic). What happened? News for the US was pretty bad. That should've meant a stronger, more bullish EU pair, especially since the news from EU was good this morning (the Manufacturing and Final PMI's and Unemployment were all much improved over projections).

Market manipulation at it's finest.

Maybe that is what SM has been waiting on? Everyone is screaming "buy, buy, buy!" already because we're in a bull market. Now we have good news on the euro and bad news on the dollar in the same day. Who wouldn't be buying this pair?

I wonder how many fundamental traders are sitting there, scratching their heads and wondering why the hell the EU pair has dropped so hard after such good news from Italy and such bad news from the US in the same morning.

EJ - Re entry long


Reason. With the current strong up trend - high volume on candles getting lower but scrinks in size.

Having to move my tp line ( green line ) but a positive problem. Currently up + 84 on second part.

First part closed at + 20 and then BE on second part.

Regards,

H.

Edit going for the weekly target of 50 % retracement.

Currently up 130 pips

Just following trend and keeping it simple goes a long way. No need to think about what the smart money is going to do or not do.

Thanks Sonic, reading this helped me. As much as I want to be a successful intraday trader, my style is more like this guy's. I need to start focusing on the daily+ charts. Wish all you the best.

Ej - would be nice to see some retrace to either 61,8 or 50,00 % for some more adding long.

But if it goes into consolidation now, and then moves up - I shall not complain.

Regards,

H.

GU: Closed all five trades for 24x5= 120 pips gain, average EP x 5 to TP1 shown. Several were very old trades and the PA pullup in these last two days prompted me to add enough so that I might have the opportunity to close everything. Therefore, while this might be headed lower next week, I decided to clear the slate on this pair and start off clean at the next good opportunity.

-tah

Indeed, its a very important point that I know escapes many many Traders (me included from time to time) and even some that have been around for some time. I believe that was the exact point Sonic was making with his two posts on the last page as well, "trying to help" some remember not to "ignore the Elephant in the room"

GU: As Master Sonicdeejay would say,.....

"......Told 'cha!"

To Master Sonicdeejay and Sonicers,

The linked thread is about building positions along the trend movement, positions to be held so long as the trend remains healthy. Along the way, positions may be stopped out, or intentionally closed if the perception is there is a retrace in the trend that could hit other nearby positions that currently have profit. At the end, instead of the trade of whatever size you normally trade being closed at the end of the day, or of a few days, for say 80 pips, you have instead after maybe many months many trades you might close for an average of thousands of pips each!

This thread was started some years back, when around the world traders had full control over which positions to close when, and could simultaneously have both long and short positions (hedging). Unfortunately, this is no longer a world wide forex market situation. The worse is in the USofA, where hedging is no longer permitted. And neither is full control of which position(s) can be closed next. The FIFO (first in, first out) rule is enforced, so traders wanting to close, say the fifth thru seventh trades due to a perceived retrace, must close all trades from the very first one thru the seventh. Obviously, this destroys any chance of this system to be successful.

Are there are ways around it? Multiple accounts? Multiple brokers? That gets around the obstruction to hedging easy enough, but even still FIFO reigns in every account. So what are you going to do? Open a new account for every entry? No, it simply won't work. I have used multiple accounts to get around both the no hedging regulation and FIFO, but let me tell you it is a bitch of an effort. And I hope soon to be done with the necessity for it. I don't recommend it for anyone.

The Sonic R. System works for everyone, no matter the diversity of trading rules and restrictions imposed in any country. Hedging is not required, nor are multiple entries. If you wish to scale out, then check with your broker if their order tile/procedures will allow you to close anything less than the full amount of the entry order. If not, you might have to place more than one entry order if you wish to close at more than one exit level. This is not convenient, but still workable.

The referenced thread talks about the importance of the Monthly and the Weekly trends (as defined by 10-15 candle, preferably less) being the same as you build a position via many entries over time. The Sonic R. System is not co-dependent on Monthly or Weekly trends. They don't have to be the same, nor does the trade of an M15 Sonic R. System setup have to be in the direction of these trends. Why? In any day, the market might move well in either direction, no matter what the trend direction is on large TF charts. This is one of the advantages of the Sonic R. System, more trading opportunities ("Let the Dragon and PA show the way...."). Let me add, however, the more trends there are that agree with the setup direction, the better the odds are the breakout run will be good. There is advantage to the direction of the setup being confirmed by the Monthly trend, and the Weekly trend, and even the Daily trend. We Sonicers should pay more attention to this (myself included), as it may be one of the most effective "Let's get real picky!" filters there is! ......Three cherries on the slot machine!

All in all, one can see how the referrred linked system can work over time. It might not be for every trader, but it is how I imagine some of the biggest trading outfits in the forex market do trade with some of their capital. And the growth of imposed trading restrictions (like no hedging, and FIFO) are likely more the outcome of lobbying by these outfits to disadvantage retailers, so retailers cannot trade in this manner.

Conclusion: The referenced system is not practical on a universal basis. Traders in some countries might be able to use the method, but in other countries might not be able to do so, due to imposed trading regulations/restrictions. The method ties up money in a traded pair for a long time, too. The Sonic R. System is universal. It does not tie up money in a pair for a long time, so you are free to trade whatever pair is currently moving best.

-tah

I really don't know why this was posted. This guy, Gavin Holmes (?) has been a spokesperson for Tradeguider (?) that has been pushing it's VSA software that you can only get thru their "for cost" platform, as if VSA was the "end all of end alls". It isn't. This is a blatant adverstisement for VSA performed in carnival fashion, using name dropping (Buffet and Soros) and stretches of logic that deceptively move listeners from truth to fiction.

Buffet and Soros don't use VSA, but presumably if you use VSA you can be like them. Yeah, right. VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) is touted in this video as equally effective from Monthly to Minute charts. It is touted as being able to reveal what SM (Smart Money) is doing. And it is touted as being so effective you can actually predict a future price level, and when it will happen! This is a sickening carnival sales pitch.

SM manipulates price. They have that part right. SM manipulates price and often to lead the herd where they want the herd to go. And in this we see the first failing of the brag about how effective VSA is from Monthly to Minute. On a very large TF chart, the candlesticks and volume bars represent the moves caused by professional trading. But SM manipulates price to motivate the herd to follow. So, at the other end of the spectrum, the Minute chart, once SM has made a move, or a few, as the herd follows SM, the herd can actually represent the bigger part of a follow-on candle and volume bar, or more. When this happens, these candles no longer represent what SM is doing, but what others are doing that SM wants them to do. So, do you want to pay attention to what SM is doing, or what the herd is doing? SM, naturally. But on smaller TF charts you can't see what SM is doing from what the herd is doing. You can only guess as to what is what! And this is the falicy. It is all hogwash!

The Sonic R. System is not a VSA trading system. I borrowed and improved upon one aspect of value from VSA, the identification of candles/volume bars that represent the highest combination of price spread and volume compared to a preceding number of candles/volume bars. So far as I am concerned, the rest of VSA is bunk! But these instances reflect the highest levels of activity, no matter who is doing it. And we should know when that activity is happening, because it is an important part of the overall picture of what is going on. Instances of highest activity are reliable indications of movement of significance. The candles/volume bars that initiate breakouts tend to be these. The candles/volume bars that end runs tend to be these. The rest of VSA is far too ambiguous to be reliable.

I should never have called our volume indicator that includes this feature as SonicR VSA. Big mistake! And it won't be that way in the next release, either. We use a combination of activity measurements that also include comparison of volume to average volume, and this combination is very effective in spotting increasing trading and in spotting extreme trading. And those are the only meanings that can be reliably derived. What they mean beyond that depends on when they occur and what PA is doing at the time, relative to S&R, etc. In trading, price action and support/resistance are the two most important things. Volume is a distant third, because we fully well know that tradeable moves can happen on very little volume!

The linked VSA "pitch" is a carnival show. Forex volume totally lacks the size of trades. It is only a count of the number of trades on one broker's server. So touting VSA in the forex market as a reliable bar by bar measure of what SM is doing is an unbelievable stretch of logic. That is an impossible thing to reliably do. I really don't know why this was posted. Look, if these people had the "Holy Grail", even one that was "not 100%", do you really think theyd be putting on these advertising seminars? No! They'd be quietly using it, and by now they would already be as rich as Buffet and Soros, and wouldn't have to borrow their names! in an attempt to create credibility!

Good luck to anyone that falls for it.
-tah

Totally agree - a worthless piece of crap. Learn to trade price action instead - it´s free.

Being the Sonic R thread I have taken a few trades counter trend dragon wise on this pair using price action, but not posted them as they will only confuse Sonickers.

However I think you get my idea of when and if there is a sonic r entry that might run into profit, or when to stay out

It´s all about being picky in your trades and setups.

Hope this helps.

Regards,

H.

We’re All Grownups Here:

Sonicers, please permit me to rant. We are adults, right? We can handle the truth, right? Ok, then I respectfully submit to us all that we should come up with our own terms that describe those market moves and situations to which the “market” itself has given such pleasant sounding, but bullshit labels.

The “market” has gone out of it’s way over more than a century to “describe” what people see on charts in such a way that the viewers of charts can faithfully just accept, and move on. See, in that way not so much as a second thought about it occurs, let alone a questioning of the true meaning of what is happening. The “market” might have to provide some “describing” label, but it does not feel it necessary to be truthfully revealing as to what is happening, because describing what is actually happening might help others figure out what is going to happen!

A case in point is the “market” labels for when price has been dropped to a previous support level, and is spending some time there. Three sets of market labels come to mind: demand/supply level, accumulation/distribution level, and support/resistance level. Now, which it is, demand or supply, or accumulation or distribution, or support or resistance cannot be determined right off. The subsequent move in price, up to a higher level or down to a lower level becomes the indicator. That is not the point. The point here is why did the move down occur in the first place? What is really going on? I hope to shed some light on this. And as I do, I will use some other “market” terms we are familiar with.

As Hansma has tutored us, price moves back and forth between demand areas and supply areas. Wyckoff referred to these levels as Accumulation and Distribution. We Sonicers refer to these levels as support and resistance. When price moves down to support, we say that price is “testing” support as if to say that if there is too much support then the “test” will fail and price will bounce back up. Or, if there is insufficient support then the “test” will not fail and price will drop thru the support area. But again, why did the move down occur in the first place?

To understand what is really going on, we must accept what we mean by the “market”. It is predominately wealthy trading concerns and Market Makers. These are the folks that are responsible for price moves, aside from Central Bank interventions. The wealthy trading concerns are pleasantly labeled SM (Smart Money). The Market Makers, or MMs, are responsible to assure sufficient liquidity to keep prices from “crashing”. This all sounds pleasant and reassuring. However, these folks have one supreme purpose. Profits! Smart Money is there to make money. The MMs are there to make money! And to make money, they must accumulate a position and then purposely move the price so as to build profits on that position.

So why did the move down occur in the first place? So SM and MMs could build profits on their positions. Sometimes, too, the move down could be to enlarge the short position, because down there are pending long orders to be “absorbed”. Or, the move down could be to take those profits out of the market and simultaneously build a new, opposite position for which they intend to build profits. So, taking the price down to a “demand” or “accumulation” level is an intentional move, is a bold faced manipulation of the price downwards to where the SM and MMs want it. And when the price gets down there, there is no “testing” of a demand level, as the “market” labels it. SM and MMs go to work! If the “test” fails, there was no failure at all! It was the successful filling of those long orders and the start of the price move back up to build profits. If the “test” does not fail, then there was the successful “absorption” by SM and MMs of pending long orders (they added to their short positions by triggering pending long orders), to be followed by the price starting to move lower as even more profits are built.

Ok, now that we understand that the “market” is SM and MMs, and that price moves are price manipulations for profit, let’s do some re-labeling of terms so we don’t forget what is really happening….

SM & MMs = MMs, Smart Money and Market Makers become Market Manipulators.

Accumulation/Demand/ Support = SR, where price previously bounced, either up or down. Whether it will prove to be an "S" area (Demand/Accumulation/Support) or a "R" area (Supply/Distribution/Resistance) is unknown. It will depend, for examples, on whether the MMs have the intent to add to their positions (absorb the opposite pending orders) and continue the move, or whether they intend to exit positions, build reverse positions, and then move the price in the reverse direction.

Testing = ET (Exiting/Entering), MMs are either building /adding to a position at this level, or they are taking profit at this level. And if they are taking profit, they might also start building an opposite position at this level.

To summarize, I believe the “market” has duly considered just what labels they want to assign, and to get people to use, and to make popularly accepted. This has been done not to promote a true understanding of what is really happening, but just the opposite; to get folks to accept and just move on without questioning, and thinking, and coming to some interesting conclusions that might help them become more profitable traders. Whether or not you feel my choice of substitute labels is ideal, I do hope all of this has incited more thinking on this subject.

-tah

UCad:

Sonicers, a potential of about 275 pips in two weeks. Maybe 360 pips if it goes to the next higher level. The recent biggest volume was buying up off the last lows.

What "FE" in your chart mean, tah? Fibo lines??

FE = Fibonacci Expansion ...

That would be FIBONACHI EXTENTION!

Yeah I see it. You recon if H1 closes above support then to get into LONG? What makes you think exactly that TP?

Please elaborate if it is not too much problems.


Regards,

msis125125

AJ: Scout short entry.

MT4 refers to it as the Fibonacci Expansion study. I don't think exactly that TP. I think that since there was increased volume moving price off the last bottom, the market is bullish. The FE 100 and 127 levels are easily reached within two weeks based on average range. Even the FE 162 level could be reached if a bull market pulls out all the stops by just moving up without retraces. This is unlikely, so the FE 100 and FE 127 become the most likely targets. It is the FE 100 level that intersects with the TL. Therefore, that level becomes the prime target. And it makes sense, in that the market can take it's time retracing the price a lot during the trip up, creating more opportunities to build bigger long positions along the way.

-tah

Have a good week ahead..Sonikers..

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c6...s-catapult.gif

Sonic