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Would you trade this system? New system #2.

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited at 4:10pm May 21, 2005 1:36pm | Edited at 4:10pm
For those of you who commented on my 1st attempt to create a trading system thank you. I took all that you suggested and have made another attempt. I worked with a friend and my father on this one. It is partial based on a moving average. System trades both short and long Two mini lots are traded each time with stops at 50 pips and 1st limit at 30 and 2nd limit at 100. The system was tested from 2/03 to 5/05.
Results for usd/chf
Starting funds 5000
Net profit 1996.
Gross pofit 8626
Gross loss 6630
Total trades 498
Winning trades 335
Largest winning trade 87
Lossing trades 163
Largest losing trade 44
Max consecutive winners 21
Average consecutive winners 6
Max consecutive profit 559
Max consecutive losers 12
Average consecutive losers 3
Max consecutive loss 526
Absolute drawdown 29
Max drawdown 1013 (15.1)


Unlike my 1st attemp this was does trade both long and short (as per previous suggestions), and is also profitable trading on eur/usd; gpb/usd; and eur/chf (again as per your previous suggestions). It was not profitable trading usd/jpy; usd/cad; and aud/usd.

Please your comments on whether this is a workable trading system is much appreciated. I am working very hard to find something that will work and produce some sort of income for my family. You honest opinions and suggestions would be greatly valued.
Thank you
pogibaby
Can you tell us which back test software are you using to generate system preformance report? Thanks!
Quoting rainerblue
Can you tell us which back test software are you using to generate system preformance report? Thanks!

It is back tested on Interbank, they use Metrader.
First of all...Metatrader's backtests is EXTREMELY flawed. It simulates what WOULD have happened b/c past data is only of the candles, not tick by tick. If you remember the AlwaysInPlay advisor at Moneytec, it had like a million percent equity increase in a year. Forward tested, it consistently lost. I strongly urge you test it with something more reliable...Wealth-Lab, Tradestation, Amibroker, etc.to get a more accurate backtest result.
If you dare to divulge, I can back test it on Tradestation tick by tick ...
Quoting colinhandlon
If you dare to divulge, I can back test it on Tradestation tick by tick ...
Thank you for your kind offer. Once I received the advise about the back testing data I told my father. We have already back tested the program in Trade Statation. The results were actually very similar just small differences.
Thank you
Quoting pogibaby
For those of you who commented on my 1st attempt to create a trading system thank you. I took all that you suggested and have made another attempt. I worked with a friend and my father on this one. It is partial based on a moving average. System trades both short and long Two mini lots are traded each time with stops at 50 pips and 1st limit at 30 and 2nd limit at 100. The system was tested from 2/03 to 5/05.
Results for usd/chf
Starting funds 5000
Net profit 1996.
Gross pofit 8626
Gross loss 6630
Total trades 498
Winning trades 335
Largest winning trade 87
Lossing trades 163
Largest losing trade 44
Max consecutive winners 21
Average consecutive winners 6
Max consecutive profit 559
Max consecutive losers 12
Average consecutive losers 3
Max consecutive loss 526
Absolute drawdown 29
Max drawdown 1013 (15.1)


Unlike my 1st attemp this was does trade both long and short (as per previous suggestions), and is also profitable trading on eur/usd; gpb/usd; and eur/chf (again as per your previous suggestions). It was not profitable trading usd/jpy; usd/cad; and aud/usd.

Please your comments on whether this is a workable trading system is much appreciated. I am working very hard to find something that will work and produce some sort of income for my family. You honest opinions and suggestions would be greatly valued.
Thank you
pogibaby
great improvement over your last system! nice work!

heres some feedback for you...

POSITIVE: it is profitable on EURUSD, USDCHF, GPBUSD.
this is pretty common as these three pairs move in a similar fashion, but it definitely shows that the system has some robustness to it if the equity curves for all three look similar. if you can make it work on the USDJPY too you would be doing even better because that pair moves quite different than the EURUSD and a system that works on both must be extremely robust.

POSITIVE: you have 498 trades.
this is enough trades to cover a wide range of market conditions. if returns remain stead on this many trades that is a great sign.

NEGATIVE: your stoploss is larger than your profit target.
this is more of a "feel" thing, but i am not crazy about this attribute. i find that your winners need to be bigger than your losers. when the opposite is true i find that you can tailspin into a drawdown that didnt appear in backtesting. with a larger stoploss, you will have a better % of winners, but that doesnt always add up to bottom line results. again, this is more of a bias i have. there are certainly viable systems that go against findings.

pogi, you are making some great progress man! i am interested to see the equity curves from tradestation for the three pairs it works on. that will tell a lot!
Relax and be happy.
Quoting pogibaby
For those of you who commented on my 1st attempt to create a trading system thank you. I took all that you suggested and have made another attempt. I worked with a friend and my father on this one. It is partial based on a moving average. System trades both short and long Two mini lots are traded each time with stops at 50 pips and 1st limit at 30 and 2nd limit at 100. The system was tested from 2/03 to 5/05.
Results for usd/chf
Starting funds 5000
Net profit 1996.
Gross pofit 8626
Gross loss 6630
Total trades 498
Winning trades 335
Largest winning trade 87
Lossing trades 163
Largest losing trade 44
Max consecutive winners 21
Average consecutive winners 6
Max consecutive profit 559
Max consecutive losers 12
Average consecutive losers 3
Max consecutive loss 526
Absolute drawdown 29
Max drawdown 1013 (15.1)


Unlike my 1st attemp this was does trade both long and short (as per previous suggestions), and is also profitable trading on eur/usd; gpb/usd; and eur/chf (again as per your previous suggestions). It was not profitable trading usd/jpy; usd/cad; and aud/usd.

Please your comments on whether this is a workable trading system is much appreciated. I am working very hard to find something that will work and produce some sort of income for my family. You honest opinions and suggestions would be greatly valued.
Thank you
pogibaby
Hello Pogibaby,

Correct me if I am wrong but your system made less than 1996 pips in 27 months trading 2 mini lots each time, so that's an average of 36 pips a month, right?
Quoting FXTerminator
Hello Pogibaby,

Correct me if I am wrong but your system made less than 1996 pips in 27 months trading 2 mini lots each time, so that's an average of 36 pips a month, right?
I think it's 1996 dollars not pips.
Quoting nyapwiltex
First of all...Metatrader's backtests is EXTREMELY flawed. It simulates what WOULD have happened b/c past data is only of the candles, not tick by tick. If you remember the AlwaysInPlay advisor at Moneytec, it had like a million percent equity increase in a year. Forward tested, it consistently lost. I strongly urge you test it with something more reliable...Wealth-Lab, Tradestation, Amibroker, etc.to get a more accurate backtest result.
Metatrader can give meaningful backtests, but one has to avoid the pitfalls, of which there are many. Tick by tick backtesting can be just as prone to being meaningless due to differences in broker feeds, if you do tick by tick the data has to be from the broker you intend to use, otherwise it's useless. Even though it is a well known that one should not trade off the data that Metatrader generates for the in-bar ticks, there is still a constant stream of EAs across this and other forums which fall into the same trap, like lemmings off a cliff.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Feb 27, 2007 8:04am Feb 27, 2007 8:04am
Quoting luqmanz
I think it's 1996 dollars not pips.
Hi Luqmanz,

Yes I know, but Pogibaby's forex system generated a profit of $1996 starting with a risk capital of $5000. That's the same as making $19,960 starting with $50,000 are you with me so far?

Ok, but in order to earn those $19,960 he needs to make 1996 pips (for simplicity we will assume that 1 pip = $10 even though he is trading the Swiss Franc), right?

So he made 1996 pips in 27 months trading 2 lots, that's an average of 36 pips a month (a relatively poor trading system), unless I am missing something.
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