Market Comment:
Tomorrow is the first Friday of the new month, NFP day (Non-Farm Employment release), which always has the potential to be a day of high volatility. Some in the past have been days where price was whipped up and down repeatedly, each swing 80+ pips! Tomorrow's NFP release is of particular importance because folks are looking to see how the MMs are going to behave.
They tend to, for example, pump EU regardless of anything, because it is their sacred cow into which they've gotten long in a "Big Time" fashion. And my guess is that as of now, the MMs still have not found enough long suckers to take it off their hands! So, if the USD NFP release is good, what will these MMs do? For some time now, they have been masquerading as bulls. But the way things have been going,....talking heads for the euro are still lying about how good things are coming along,...these MMs are really just scared shitless bears! And they are running out of sucker longs to pass off their long holdings to!
On the other hand, the "safe haven" USD is deep in debt so to speak. And "uncle" Ben Bernanke (and all the other "wiz kid monetary experts") don't want a strengthening dollar because a weak dollar is better. It it strengthens, then interest rates could increase and any interest rate increases for the USD could amount to more interest payment debt than the country can afford. Well, "afford" is a loose term, since it cannot afford the current interest debt. But then, there is always the printing press at Uncle Ben's disposal,......or Fed intervention in the currency market to keep the USD weak.
So, how will the MMs behave tomorrow? Should be an interesting end to the week if the USD release is "good", because there have been signs today that MMs may have been lightening their load of longs......
Tomorrow is the first Friday of the new month, NFP day (Non-Farm Employment release), which always has the potential to be a day of high volatility. Some in the past have been days where price was whipped up and down repeatedly, each swing 80+ pips! Tomorrow's NFP release is of particular importance because folks are looking to see how the MMs are going to behave.
They tend to, for example, pump EU regardless of anything, because it is their sacred cow into which they've gotten long in a "Big Time" fashion. And my guess is that as of now, the MMs still have not found enough long suckers to take it off their hands! So, if the USD NFP release is good, what will these MMs do? For some time now, they have been masquerading as bulls. But the way things have been going,....talking heads for the euro are still lying about how good things are coming along,...these MMs are really just scared shitless bears! And they are running out of sucker longs to pass off their long holdings to!
On the other hand, the "safe haven" USD is deep in debt so to speak. And "uncle" Ben Bernanke (and all the other "wiz kid monetary experts") don't want a strengthening dollar because a weak dollar is better. It it strengthens, then interest rates could increase and any interest rate increases for the USD could amount to more interest payment debt than the country can afford. Well, "afford" is a loose term, since it cannot afford the current interest debt. But then, there is always the printing press at Uncle Ben's disposal,......or Fed intervention in the currency market to keep the USD weak.
So, how will the MMs behave tomorrow? Should be an interesting end to the week if the USD release is "good", because there have been signs today that MMs may have been lightening their load of longs......