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Sonic R. System

  • #43,621
  • Jan 31, 2013 12:31pm Jan 31, 2013 12:31pm
Market Comment:

Tomorrow is the first Friday of the new month, NFP day (Non-Farm Employment release), which always has the potential to be a day of high volatility. Some in the past have been days where price was whipped up and down repeatedly, each swing 80+ pips! Tomorrow's NFP release is of particular importance because folks are looking to see how the MMs are going to behave.

They tend to, for example, pump EU regardless of anything, because it is their sacred cow into which they've gotten long in a "Big Time" fashion. And my guess is that as of now, the MMs still have not found enough long suckers to take it off their hands! So, if the USD NFP release is good, what will these MMs do? For some time now, they have been masquerading as bulls. But the way things have been going,....talking heads for the euro are still lying about how good things are coming along,...these MMs are really just scared shitless bears! And they are running out of sucker longs to pass off their long holdings to!

On the other hand, the "safe haven" USD is deep in debt so to speak. And "uncle" Ben Bernanke (and all the other "wiz kid monetary experts") don't want a strengthening dollar because a weak dollar is better. It it strengthens, then interest rates could increase and any interest rate increases for the USD could amount to more interest payment debt than the country can afford. Well, "afford" is a loose term, since it cannot afford the current interest debt. But then, there is always the printing press at Uncle Ben's disposal,......or Fed intervention in the currency market to keep the USD weak.

So, how will the MMs behave tomorrow? Should be an interesting end to the week if the USD release is "good", because there have been signs today that MMs may have been lightening their load of longs......
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  • #43,622
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:04pm Jan 31, 2013 3:04pm
Does this look like a valid setup? I know it's not the cleanest L-H-HL but it does seem to fit all the rules of the system?
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  • #43,623
  • Jan 31, 2013 3:36pm Jan 31, 2013 3:36pm
Nice market comment TAH, thanks
  • #43,624
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:29pm Jan 31, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting Jon Reed
Does this look like a valid setup? I know it's not the cleanest L-H-HL but it does seem to fit all the rules of the system?
It seems valid to me. I would enter if it was in the London session..
  • #43,625
  • Jan 31, 2013 5:32pm Jan 31, 2013 5:32pm
AJ: Scout add to existing shorts.
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  • #43,626
  • Edited 5:58pm Jan 31, 2013 5:46pm | Edited 5:58pm
Quoting Jon Reed
Does this look like a valid setup? I know it's not the cleanest L-H-HL but it does seem to fit all the rules of the system?
EU: I can see four valid reasons not to trade (my chart and at this time). Can you?

1.
2.
3.
4.

Edit: (3rd pic) Reason #3 - it has already started. Direction just happened to be up.
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  • #43,627
  • Jan 31, 2013 6:12pm Jan 31, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting traderathome
EU: I can see four valid reasons not to trade (my chart and at this time). Can you?

1.
2.
3.
4.

Edit: (3rd pic) Reason #3 - it has already started. Direction just happened to be up.
I entered the trade at 4:07PM EST, the trade hit my TP for +135 pips but the thing is, was I just lucky that the movement happened to be up and this wasn't a valid signal? I don't really see the 4 reasons not to trade? I can see the reasons if it was around 6:46PM, but what about having entered the trade at 4:07PM? I just want to make sure I entered and profited because of a good signal and not dumb luck.
  • #43,628
  • Edited 6:55pm Jan 31, 2013 6:27pm | Edited 6:55pm
Quoting Jon Reed
I entered the trade at 4:07PM EST, the trade hit my TP for +135 pips but the thing is, was I just lucky that the movement happened to be up and this wasn't a valid signal? I don't really see the 4 reasons not to trade? I can see the reasons if it was around 6:46PM, but what about having entered the trade at 4:07PM? I just want to make sure I entered and profited because of a good signal and not dumb luck.
EU:

Ok, so at around 4pm EST last session you were asking if there was a valid setup, and even while asking, you entered? It was a setup of sorts, but far down on the list so far as reducing risk......

1. Asian setups often look good but most of the time they either go nowhere (range) or worse, they reverse! - Mistake #1, not the London session.
2. While there was a L-H-HL, this is not the best pattern. H,L, HH, HL is the best pattern! This was pointed out days ago by Hansma and I have painstakingly been drawing examples since! - Mistake #2, when it was not the best time to trade, you also took not the best wave.
3. Today is NFP day, complete with whatever whips in whatever direction might occur! - Mistake #3, entering a trade on NFP Friday before the dust settles following the NFP release. This first whip just happened to go up. And that is the answer to your question.
4. Analysis of price/volume suggests MMs might be hiking prices in order to increase profits by closing longs as they hike the prices. If this is going on, then trading long certainly becomes of higher risk because you can get caught by a sudden price reversal while thinking price is going to continue rising.

Were it me, I'd take those +135 pips for the day, and walk away!

BTW, from the lowest valid EP to the high (TP) was less than 37 pips, not 135. And that is how we specify the length of each trade, EPs to TPs. If you entered a (one) trade, then your trade was for a maximum of 37 pips gain, EP to TP.

-tah
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  • #43,629
  • Jan 31, 2013 7:20pm Jan 31, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Ok, so at around 4pm EST last session you were asking if there was a valid setup, and even while asking, you entered? It was a setup of sorts, but far down on the list so far as reducing risk......

1. Asian setups often look good but most of the time they either go nowhere (range) or worse, they reverse! - Mistake #1, not the London session.
2. While there was a L-H-HL, this is not the best pattern. H,L, HH, HL is the best pattern! This was pointed out days ago by Hansma and I have painstakingly been drawing examples since! - Mistake...
Thanks for the great advice TaH Simple, but very important points, and you're right, it was +35 pips, I had just re-formatted my PC and installed MT4 and forgot by default the profit is set in $ not pip points. So, 35 pips aka $135 Well, I guess I need to pay more attention, beginner's luck won't last forever

Btw, for your template, how did you set the news to the right side of the sub-window?
  • #43,630
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:44pm Jan 31, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Ok, so at around 4pm EST last session you were asking if there was a valid setup, and even while asking, you entered? It was a setup of sorts, but far down on the list so far as reducing risk......

1. Asian setups often look good but most of the time they either go nowhere (range) or worse, they reverse! - Mistake #1, not the London session.
2. While there was a L-H-HL, this is not the best pattern. H,L, HH, HL is the best pattern! This was pointed out days ago by Hansma and I have painstakingly been drawing examples since! - Mistake...
TAH i wanna ask about the wave. IS the H L HH HL is must occure in the LO all of the wave? or it could be in the asia session s long it show that way? coz i do make mistake with rule no2 as well. I take L H HL as long. wiht your post i think i have a better understanding with it. So far i just relay on the wave and SR to make OP and tp thx.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #43,631
  • Jan 31, 2013 8:48pm Jan 31, 2013 8:48pm
John i would ask what is the lost size u use 35 pips and 135 usd? i dun get it. thx for the explanantion. But for me if u wanna know i use 1.0 standard lot. therefore daily 20 pips is enough for me. it 200 usd daily.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #43,632
  • Edited Feb 1, 2013 9:46am Jan 31, 2013 8:54pm | Edited Feb 1, 2013 9:46am
Hey scuderia, I use different lot sizes based on risk, I have a risk calculator based on balance or equity indicator if you want it. In this particular trade, I traded 1 lot of E/U, so $10 per pip. Btw, just out of curiosity, do you have a F430 Scuderia?

Btw, I use Oanda for trading and they allow any lot size you want.

EDIT: Just realized I had told you 1 lot, sorry, it was .3 lots, no idea why I put 1 lot down, must have had you really confused, lol
  • #43,633
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:06pm Jan 31, 2013 9:06pm
Quoting scuderia
John i would ask what is the lost size u use 35 pips and 135 usd? i dun get it. thx for the explanantion. But for me if u wanna know i use 1.0 standard lot. therefore daily 20 pips is enough for me. it 200 usd daily.
Hi, if I have $1100 in my balance and I trade for 1 lot means $10 per 1 pips, it's too risky or fair? Thx...
Consistent Is not easy but It Is must
  • #43,634
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:11pm Jan 31, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting letnanfaw
Hi, if I have $1100 in my balance and I trade for 1 lot means $10 per 1 pips, it's too risky or fair? Thx...
If you're talking about E/U, $1100 isn't enough to purchase 1 lot. And as for risky, overall, yes, it's very risky because basically you're trying to play with your entire balance. Depending on your SL, you could lose a ton of money or even your entire account in 1 bad trade.
  • #43,635
  • Jan 31, 2013 9:37pm Jan 31, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting letnanfaw
Hi, if I have $1100 in my balance and I trade for 1 lot means $10 per 1 pips, it's too risky or fair? Thx...
hello letnanfaw. USD1100 for 0.1 lot size it already high risk. but it is all up to you. U do the money management(MM) if it OK with the risk and profit ratio then do it. if not the don't.
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #43,636
  • Jan 31, 2013 10:48pm Jan 31, 2013 10:48pm
EJ: Scout add to shorts.
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  • #43,637
  • Jan 31, 2013 11:16pm Jan 31, 2013 11:16pm
Quoting scuderia
TAH i wanna ask about the wave. IS the H L HH HL is must occure in the LO all of the wave? or it could be in the asia session s long it show that way? coz i do make mistake with rule no2 as well. I take L H HL as long. wiht your post i think i have a better understanding with it. So far i just relay on the wave and SR to make OP and tp thx.
There is no requirement for the wave being traded to be completely within the London session. The recommendation is that the EP occur in the LS.
  • #43,638
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:43am Feb 1, 2013 1:43am
Quoting traderathome
There is no requirement for the wave being traded to be completely within the London session. The recommendation is that the EP occur in the LS.
OK thx TAH. will update soon. and need your comment which is legal entry or not . thx
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #43,639
  • Feb 1, 2013 1:56am Feb 1, 2013 1:56am
Quoting letnanfaw
Hi, if I have $1100 in my balance and I trade for 1 lot means $10 per 1 pips, it's too risky or fair? Thx...

My friend,

In the US, The firm FXCM has 3 size accts you can trade, as do most brokers Ive seen in the usa and that advertise on FF. Id stay with a US firm as they are the most regulated like FXCM. yOU HAVE A STANDARD SIZE ACCT WHERE EACH PIP +$10 A MINI ACCT WHERE EACH.1 P =$1. And then you have the micro size acct which I bet money at least 1/2 the people are using and thats .01,1/100th of a pip and each pip is 10 cents! That means if you lose 100 pips you only lost 10 dollars. Try that one first because you can always bet full pips at any time.

By the way, any pro will tell you, never risk more than 2% of your acct on any trade. So, if you open an acct for $1000, you can afford to lose up to $20 on each trade. Thats 200 pips! If you want to be very aggressive which is not a good idea, go 3% on each trade and thats $30 max risk on each trade.

Risking anything less than 20 or 30 dollars on each trade is really just a play acct. It will never get anywhere even if you double it or triple it. Im in this game 15 years, I understand how it feels to want to make at least $100 on each trade. But if you can afford to risk that on every trade in the beginning, you might as well play stocks too. Forex really is now made for the poor man to get entry.

I have a thread on THE 7 SYSTEM if you find you need a clear easy system to use with this one. I used this for a while. Its a nice system.
  • #43,640
  • Feb 1, 2013 2:40am Feb 1, 2013 2:40am
Quoting traderathome
EJ: Scout add to shorts.

Yr are on the dot man...
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