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EUR/CHF

  • #9,201
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:03pm Aug 23, 2012 5:03pm
I have to admit that
- if the trend continues with EUR/USD going up although QE3 is more or less off the table
- and SNB interventions going down,
- and >160billions that could also be withdrawn
I'm now a bit more nervous that EUR/CHF might go up.

Let's see SNB's numbers on Monday.
  • #9,202
  • Aug 24, 2012 6:55am Aug 24, 2012 6:55am
Quoting brinks
Its either the 3rd or 4th of september
03.09.2012 09:00
Speech Thomas Jordan, "Challenges for Switzerland as a financial centre", NZZ Swiss Capital Market Forum, Zurich (with text)
So just before GDP q/q on 04.09. and CPI m/m on 05.09.
  • #9,203
  • Aug 24, 2012 11:20am Aug 24, 2012 11:20am
I'am more nervous than at any other time holding these trades over the weekend
  • #9,204
  • Aug 24, 2012 2:42pm Aug 24, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting brinks
I'am more nervous than at any other time holding these trades over the weekend
Don't worry Brinks, the peg will hold. If you read German, here's an interesting analysis supporting my view as stated in my recent post (basically says the SNB has no choice but to defen 1.20):

http://www.fuw.ch/article/nationalba...cken-zur-wand/


In my view, the only danger is widening spreads just before market closing and just after market opening. The SNB's buy price has never been below 1.20 and after April 5th they have taken additonal measures to avoid further breaks. So just don't get caught by a ridculously wide spread pushing the bid price 35 pips below 1.20 for 5 seconds, but keep your SL at 1.1950 or even lower.

This way you can sleep tight and enjoy your weekend!
  • #9,205
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:06am Aug 25, 2012 12:06am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Don't worry Brinks, the peg will hold. If you read German, here's an interesting analysis supporting my view as stated in my recent post (basically says the SNB has no choice but to defen 1.20):

http://www.fuw.ch/article/nationalba...cken-zur-wand/


In my view, the only danger is widening spreads just before market closing and just after market opening. The SNB's buy price has never been below 1.20 and after April 5th they have taken additonal measures to avoid further breaks. So just don't get caught by a ridculously...
Thanks bluedolphin Yes brokers stop hunting is my worry.
  • #9,206
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:59am Aug 25, 2012 12:59am
Quoting brinks
I'am more nervous than at any other time holding these trades over the weekend
Agreed, I was just thinking about that.

But as I am almost 100% sure that the peg will hold and have my stops way below the 1.20 price I am not too worried. The chances of the SNB saying that they will not defend the peg over the weekend is almost 0.
  • #9,207
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:05am Aug 25, 2012 1:05am
Quoting phil3526
Agreed, I was just thinking about that.

But as I am almost 100% sure that the peg will hold and have my stops way below the 1.20 price I am not too worried. The chances of the SNB saying that they will not defend the peg over the weekend is almost 0.
Yes I don't think they would drop the peg at the weekend.

I had a spike down on one of my accounts yesterday 1.19940 but this morning when I checked the closing price the spike down wasn't showing and the low for the day was 1.20050.

So that is why I'm worried.
  • #9,208
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:40am Aug 25, 2012 1:40am
Quoting brinks
Yes I don't think they would drop the peg at the weekend.

I had a spike down on one of my accounts yesterday 1.19940 but this morning when I checked the closing price the spike down wasn't showing and the low for the day was 1.20050.

So that is why I'm worried.
On my Exness mini I had a spike downwards to 1.19994 but the bid is 1.20048 and the ask is 1.20127.

But I think the key is to make sure that you can withstand temporary spikes below the 1.2000.
  • #9,209
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:43am Aug 25, 2012 1:43am
Quoting phil3526
On my Exness mini I had a spike downwards to 1.19994 but the bid is 1.20048 and the ask is 1.20127.

But I think the key is to make sure that you can withstand temporary spikes below the 1.2000.
But what stops them making a major spike down say 50 pips?

A spike like that would stop me out.
  • #9,210
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:21am Aug 25, 2012 7:21am
Quoting brinks
But what stops them making a major spike down say 50 pips?

A spike like that would stop me out.
Same here. I think a spike like that would probably not occur as the SNB have said the 1.2000 will be defended.

Remember when that level was breached by only a little, and the SNB even had to make a statement about the floor being defended.

If a broker had a 50 pip spike downwards, I would be changing brokers. Who are you with again?
  • #9,211
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:25am Aug 25, 2012 7:25am
Quoting phil3526
Same here. I think a spike like that would probably not occur as the SNB have said the 1.2000 will be defended.

Remember when that level was breached by only a little, and the SNB even had to make a statement about the floor being defended.

If a broker had a 50 pip spike downwards, I would be changing brokers. Who are you with again?
I have 2 accounts pepperstone and alpari uk spreadbetting.
Both started having little spikes down last week but not below the 1.20
  • #9,212
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:33am Aug 25, 2012 7:33am
Now our major concern is downward spikes. I have avoided spikey brokers lately. Exness is worst (see earlier post snapshot). But there r some very stable brokers out there that never spike below 1.2005 these few weeks. Instaforex is one although have -ve swap.

I'm trying a new strategy; using max leverage 1000:1 on stable brokers. Of course with negative bal protection. High risk, high returns (I hope).
  • #9,213
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:38am Aug 25, 2012 7:38am
Quoting alaneth
Now our major concern is downward spikes. I have avoided spikey brokers lately. Exness is worst (see earlier post snapshot). But there r some very stable brokers out there that never spike below 1.2005 these few weeks. Instaforex is one although have -ve swap.

I'm trying a new strategy; using max leverage 1000:1 on stable brokers. Of course with negative bal protection. High risk, high returns (I hope).
Yep both my brokers were fine I'm putting it down to low liquidity hopefully next week it improves.
  • #9,214
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:55pm Aug 26, 2012 12:55pm
Is anyone expecting any movement this week up or down?
  • #9,215
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:02pm Aug 26, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting brinks
Is anyone expecting any movement this week up or down?
Who may expect anything from this pair? not this week nor coming weeks
  • #9,216
  • Aug 26, 2012 3:26pm Aug 26, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting brinks
Is anyone expecting any movement this week up or down?
This is how I see it: I think this week will not be as important as the next. Jackson hole will cause a lot of volatility in EUR/USD on Friday, but not much in EUR/CHF, unless Draghi or Jordan make any unexpected announcements changing the outlook for the EZ-crisis or the CHF-peg (unlikely).

Next week we have Jordan’s speech on 3rd (the return of "Utmost Determination", part XXX, same cast) and ECB rate decision on 6th with a lot of expectations for Draghi to further detail his bond purchase plan. Both events are potentially important for EUR/CHF but unlikely to be game-changers, so good spike opportunities at best. Also, a short disappointment spike down below 1.20 (particularly bid price) cannot be excluded on 6th, so let's keep our SL at arm's length from that level. Next on the horizon will be the SNB meeting on 14th but, unless ECB or market go crazy before that, will not bring a game changer either, but perhaps a nice little spike. Good luck!
  • #9,217
  • Aug 27, 2012 1:23am Aug 27, 2012 1:23am
Quoting alaneth
Now our major concern is downward spikes. I have avoided spikey brokers lately. Exness is worst (see earlier post snapshot). But there r some very stable brokers out there that never spike below 1.2005 these few weeks. Instaforex is one although have -ve swap.

I'm trying a new strategy; using max leverage 1000:1 on stable brokers. Of course with negative bal protection. High risk, high returns (I hope).
Sounds interesting. Do you know of any brokers that have positive swap and 1000:1 leverage all the time?
  • #9,218
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:41am Aug 27, 2012 2:41am
another trade has been closed by ibfx at 1.19934 .. now i'm so frustrating
  • #9,219
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:11am Aug 27, 2012 3:11am
5,4Bln CHF has been printed last week
  • #9,220
  • Aug 27, 2012 3:28am Aug 27, 2012 3:28am
Quoting pipxster
5,4Bln CHF has been printed last week
So is that a little bit more than the week before?
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