Anyone fancy giving a prediction on where price will be by the end of the year?
I think it will be exactly were it is now. 1.20100 area.
I think it will be exactly were it is now. 1.20100 area.
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DislikedCome on, lets go to square one for Jordan credibility is no1. priority. In long or even mid term that is the most valuable asset for a central banker, and the cheapest intervention. Jordan knows it very well. Can doubt this, but then its hard to argue. They wont do pull 1,1 then pull up 1,3 on week later.
They would completely destroy credibility thats just building up, see weekly intervention numbers that are now feasible for years.Ignored
DislikedThe last 6 m/m inflation rates were
-0,48%
-0,28%
-0,02%
0,07%
0,56%
0,28%
So you calculate (0,9952*...*1,0028) and get 0,13% for the last 6 month. Extrapolated for a year you then have 0,26%.Ignored
DislikedCredibility is important, but May-July forex reserves proved that people will call your bluff if the economic situation does not justify SNB's action.
I'm not advertising going down to 1,1 and then pull back to 1,3. But they might feel more comfortable to peg to a basket.
Example EUR goes down 10% against USD,GBP,etc. because of negative development in Eurozone. The EUR/CHF might go down 5% to 1,14 and USD,GBP/CHF go up by 5%. The costs of keeping the peg would go down, and export would still be as strong as it is now (50% outside EZ).
So pegging...Ignored
DislikedAnyone fancy giving a prediction on where price will be by the end of the year?
I think it will be exactly were it is now. 1.20100 area.Ignored
Dislikedhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8JN2T120120823
The trade surplus rose to 2.9 billion - the second highest monthly figure ever recorded - from 2.2 billion in June.
Is CHF overvalued?Ignored
DislikedOk here’s my analysis and prediction for EUR/CHF:
[color=black][font=Verdana]In my view, EUR/CHF cannot move down, because the combined damage to the SNB's credibility, to the value of it EUR-reserves and to the Swiss economy would be devastating or at least perceived as unacceptable. And Jordan, though he may not be the best communicator, he certainly is clear, straightforward and stubborn enough to pull through with what he thinks is right. He is not the tricky...Ignored
DislikedEUR/CHF is at 1.2009. If it weren’t for the SNB it would be 1.1709…Even with EUR/USD 5 cents higher and Europe’s problem’s “solved” SNB has to be the bid.I’d be scared stiff if I were them…
A comment from jamie coleman at forex liveIgnored
DislikedThanks Brinks for your postive feedback earlier http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
I guess investors shifting from USD to EUR because of expected USD flood by the Fed (which causes the current EUR rise / USD fall) does not mean investors also want to shift out of the CHF into EUR, because the fundamentals between EUR and CHF remain the same (as I argued in my previous post). This does not mean SNB should be scared, but it means they have to be patient and determined ("utmost", as we all know by now... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif...Ignored
Remember, Draghi said that Spain must request a bailout and agree to the conditions before the ECB will buy bonds. Some had expected a formal bailout request to come as early as tomorrow after a Spanish cabinet meeting.
Maybe we will get the bailout request you were talking about
DislikedOk here’s my analysis and prediction for EUR/CHF:
Conclusion: Ok, that's my analysis of things. It does not make the timing question much easier, but it means that EUR/CHF long remains the right strategy, and we just have to make sure we hang in there long enough, benefit from spikes and stick with a broker allowing us to do so without imposing negative swaps or exaggerated margin requirements. Good luck everyone!Ignored
DislikedThere are only 2 strategies in trading EURCHF now...
1. Long EURCHF
2. Don't trade EURCHF
Those shorting/testing the floor will find themselves in hot water closer to mid-Sept when Germany votes ESM & SNB monetary policy + negative swaps etc.
Heard Jordan is making a speech early next month. Anyone knows what date? Thanks.Ignored
DislikedOk here’s my analysis and prediction for EUR/CHF:
[color=black][font=Verdana]In my view, EUR/CHF cannot move down, because the combined damage to the SNB's credibility, to the value of it EUR-reserves and to the Swiss economy would be devastating or at least perceived as unacceptable. And Jordan, though he may not be the best communicator, he certainly is clear, straightforward and stubborn enough to pull through with what he thinks is right. He is not the tricky type. Listen to what he says and that's...Ignored
DislikedIBEX in Madrid has recently increased almost a 30%, and EURCHF has not benefited from it. The same with the euro. EURCHF doesn't depend on risk aversion. Only it depends on SNB movements. If no expectation that "peg" will be raised (and it can't happen with Jordan, even more after strong GDP and trade balance data), franc can't devaluate. Still too much investors wants francs, but industry as well. Because franc may be "overvalued", but today we have seen that this is not an impediment to register a record trade surplus. It can't go higher than...Ignored
DislikedSo if the floor isn't warranted and they remove it and the eur/chf falls below parity do you think they would still register record trade surplus?Ignored
DislikedThey don't need a record trade surplus. We can see that resistency of swiss economy to strong franc is very high. Higher trade surplus than with EURCHF at 1,65. Probably swiss economy could face a EURCHF below parity. ANd removing the peg will prevent any inflation problems in the future. Peg could remain some months because the risk is deflation (but it won't be during too much time) and global downturn still, but it is not guaranteed. SNB has full autonomy to give up the floor, some government member said. What is 100% guaranteed is that swiss...Ignored
DislikedSo your short at this level?
I think without intervention This pair would be Below parity.
The only reason the selling pressure has slowed is because the SNB have been very strong.if they turned round tommorrow and said the floor has been removed the pair would fall very quickly.Ignored