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EUR/CHF

  • #9,021
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:35am Aug 10, 2012 3:35am
Quoting alesss
I think there not will be volatility in august because it's summer, but maybe in september we have new events about capital controls or other thing. i hope there is another spike in september
Yes you never know but to me the ideal time for the SNB to announce something would be this month with low liquidity.

I still think that they are not going to do anything other than defend the 1.20
  • #9,022
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:37am Aug 10, 2012 3:37am
Quoting alesss
I'm Bored. this is extremely boring

I thint the best is close positions and wait until september, before the meeting
You're right. I'm bored too.
  • #9,023
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:45am Aug 10, 2012 3:45am
Quoting brinks
Yes you never know but to me the ideal time for the SNB to announce something would be this month with low liquidity.

I still think that they are not going to do anything other than defend the 1.20

SNB's members are on holiday this month. I dont know where, but maybe in some luxury yacht. I don't think they announce something in august

on september 3, Thomas Jordan has a conference in Zurich. Perpahs he says interesting things
  • #9,024
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:47am Aug 10, 2012 3:47am
Quoting alesss
SNB's members are at holiday this month. I dont know where, but maybe in some luxury yacht. I don't think they announce something in august

on september 3, Thomas Jordan has a conference in Zurizh. Perpahs he says interesting things
They need to do something to get this pair moving just talking it up isnt going to work
  • #9,025
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:04am Aug 10, 2012 4:04am
Quoting brinks
They need to do something to get this pair moving just talking it up isnt going to work

yes it's true. they need act if SNB want move this pair and they will not get to move eurchf with word. It's possible that they announce capital controls the next month because SNB is buying too much euros. They need more measures to face to deflation
  • #9,026
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:06am Aug 10, 2012 4:06am
Quoting alesss
yes it's true. they need act if SNB want move this pair and they will not get to move eurchf with word. It's possible that they announce capital controls the next month because SNB is buying too much euros. They need more measures to face to deflation
Hopefully the pressure on the floor continues then.
  • #9,027
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:20am Aug 10, 2012 4:20am
Quoting brinks
Hopefully the pressure on the floor continues then.
if they set a 10% tax on bank accounts of non-residents, capital flight to Switzerland will decrease from southern Europe and the pressure on the floor will decrease. CHF will devalue.
  • #9,028
  • Aug 10, 2012 4:27am Aug 10, 2012 4:27am
Quoting alesss
if they make a 10% tax on bank accounts of non-residents, capital flight to Switzerland will decrease from southern Europe and the pressure on the floor will decrease. CHF will devalue.
No capital control on the way, unless things really get worse in EU.
  • #9,029
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:35am Aug 10, 2012 5:35am
Quoting holmes
No capital control on the way, unless things really get worse in EU.
Can get worse? look at Spain and Italy bond yields.
  • #9,030
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:41am Aug 10, 2012 5:41am
Some investors (I presume hedge fonds) bought 160billion CHF in the last 3 months. They would be rather upset to see any decrease of CHF, wouldn't they?

Are they all stupid to enter a game that they can't win if SNB defends the floor? Why should they bet on CHF instead on betting on EUR?

SNB may want you to think that EUR/CHF is a dull game, but given the amount invested, I would rather think it is sitting on dynamite.
  • #9,031
  • Aug 10, 2012 5:59am Aug 10, 2012 5:59am
Quoting didi_doedel
Some investors (I presume hedge fonds) bought 160billion CHF in the last 3 months. They would be rather upset to see any decrease of CHF, wouldn't they?

Are they all stupid to enter a game that they can't win if SNB defends the floor? Why should they bet on CHF instead on betting on EUR?

SNB may want you to think that EUR/CHF is a dull game, but given the amount invested, I would rather think it is sitting on dynamite.
That investors is maybe some people who want to secure their money, on long term. It is very logical.
For example,If you have 100 milion is EURO , you probably want to change big part of yours fund into CHF , and some part into different currency.
Because they fear what will happend in EU .
  • #9,032
  • Aug 10, 2012 6:15am Aug 10, 2012 6:15am
Some members of SNB commented that they would buy all the euros they need to keep the floor and they repeated it many times. But now, long time ago, nobody of SNB has said something about it
  • #9,033
  • Aug 10, 2012 6:50am Aug 10, 2012 6:50am
Quoting alesss
Some members of SNB commented that they would buy all the euros they need to keep the floor and they repeated it many times. But now, long time ago, nobody of SNB has said something about it
I don't suppose they need to keep saying it when they are actually doing it.
  • #9,034
  • Aug 10, 2012 7:53am Aug 10, 2012 7:53am
Quoting Urosh1
That investors is maybe some people who want to secure their money, on long term. It is very logical.
For example,If you have 100 milion is EURO , you probably want to change big part of yours fund into CHF , and some part into different currency.
Because they fear what will happend in EU .
But this only works if EUR/CHF pegging fails otherwise CHF is on the same sinking ship!
  • #9,035
  • Aug 10, 2012 8:27am Aug 10, 2012 8:27am
Quoting didi_doedel
Some investors (I presume hedge fonds) bought 160billion CHF in the last 3 months. They would be rather upset to see any decrease of CHF, wouldn't they?

Are they all stupid to enter a game that they can't win if SNB defends the floor? Why should they bet on CHF instead on betting on EUR?

SNB may want you to think that EUR/CHF is a dull game, but given the amount invested, I would rather think it is sitting on dynamite.
Well it's not their first time betting on the wrong side.
  • #9,036
  • Aug 10, 2012 8:53am Aug 10, 2012 8:53am
Quoting holmes
Well it's not their first time betting on the wrong side.
Maybe they use it as a straddle position:
either EZ collapses and CHF is unpegged, or EZ comes back to normal and CHF and EUR both rise against USD.
  • #9,037
  • Aug 10, 2012 9:35am Aug 10, 2012 9:35am
Quoting didi_doedel
Maybe they use it as a straddle position:
either EZ collapses and CHF is unpegged, or EZ comes back to normal and CHF and EUR both rise against USD.
BASED ON HISTORY OF CURRENCY:
1- No peg can stay forever,
2- free economy is against paged economy
3- Switzerland is small and can't stay against all world
But,
1- We are experiencing a new period of economy
2- All interest rates are moving toward ZERO
3- Banking instruments are limited in current situation
4- National banks of developed countries are far from bankruptcy,
HFs have chosen their side and are from the first group however retailers used to trust the SNB however there could be found some these days who bet against.
Whatever your side might be but remember that decision making is very challenging these days specially for the SNB because they claim to be superiors in banking systems and must try not to make a mistake for their own credibility in addition they are surrounded by problematic countries. Price stability can hardly be accomplished when the biggest partner of theirs is suffering from deflation. Jordan has enough support from political parties but is very conservative and fragile if make a mistake, remember he is academic not a practical person to go after Try-and-Error solutions, he needs time to learn the market.
  • #9,038
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:14am Aug 10, 2012 10:14am
The weekly candle if it closes like this is terrible.

It would indicate the floor is going to come under a lot of pressure in the next weeks.
  • #9,039
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:50am Aug 10, 2012 10:50am
Quoting brinks
The weekly candle if it closes like this is terrible.

It would indicate the floor is going to come under a lot of pressure in the next weeks.
Even if it closes 3 pips higher, it won't change the shape of weekly candle, but I think it won't change anything because this pair is not a technical one.
  • #9,040
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:53am Aug 10, 2012 10:53am
Quoting holmes
Even if it closes 3 pips higher, it won't change the shape of weekly candle, but I think it won't change anything because this pair is not a technical one.
No very true i was just trying to say more pressure on the SNB as they spend billions.

I just wonder what tolerance they have set themselves
What limit they will go to.
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