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EUR/CHF

  • #9,001
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:32am Aug 9, 2012 3:32am
Quoting holmes
some 1.2037 and the rest 1.2072.
Thats not very good
  • #9,002
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:36am Aug 9, 2012 3:36am
Quoting holmes
Sure they do, Switzerland is a small country and the SNB has never had this amount of reserve, although Jordan believes in theory the amount can be unlimited, they are not used to holding that amount of reserve and it makes them worried, I believe they and political parties will get used to that and understand it is not that bad to raise the reserve as far as there is no risk of inflation. As I said before for price stability they will need to get further steps and with EUR/[email protected] and EurChf 1.2, Chf is still about 35 percent overvalued. So the...
Why shall EURCHF rise, when the situation in EUR-Zone worsen?
  • #9,003
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:40am Aug 9, 2012 3:40am
We are retailers and beside 1- banks currency manipulation 2- late access to news 3- brokers cheating 4-short capitals, we are there and still work and don't nag that competing environment is not fair but it bothers when we are assumed jack-ass. That day after the spike there was an article I guess from Jforex on forexfactory that the trade was real, not a mistake and was going to stay while yesterday we got from Reuters that it was a mistake and it is ridiculous, who might ever believe such crap?
  • #9,004
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:42am Aug 9, 2012 3:42am
Quoting Swissie
Why shall EURCHF rise, when the situation in EUR-Zone worsen?
Because flow of capitals will happen and negative interest rate will come after.
  • #9,005
  • Aug 9, 2012 4:19am Aug 9, 2012 4:19am
the best way would be sell and wait until september. There is not volatility, so we can not do anything with this pair
  • #9,006
  • Aug 9, 2012 5:30am Aug 9, 2012 5:30am
Quoting holmes
Because flow of capitals will happen and negative interest rate will come after.
Its obvious if the SNB want this thing away from 1.20 they are going to have to do more.
  • #9,007
  • Aug 9, 2012 5:48am Aug 9, 2012 5:48am
if we think clear, swiss economics data are not bad

- surplus in trade balance
- 2,9% jobless
- economic growth
- KOF leading indicator is going up
- switzerland's bond yield is the lowest of the world

Yes, it's true, CHF is overvalued and there is deflatión because swiss franc is too much strong. But if EURCHF goes down to 1,10, it would not be a catastrophy because swiss economic data are good, except CPI

In Greece, Irland, Portugal, Italy and Spain are much worse
  • #9,008
  • Aug 9, 2012 5:57am Aug 9, 2012 5:57am
Quoting alesss
if we think clear, swiss economics data are not bad

- surplus in trade balance
- 2,9% jobless
- economic growth
- KOF leading indicator is going up
- switzerland's bond yield is the lowest of the world

Yes, it's true, CHF is overvalued and there is deflatión because swiss franc is too much strong. But if EURCHF goes down to 1,10, it would not be a catastrophy because swiss economic data are good, except CPI

In Greece, Irland, Portugal, Italy and Spain are much worse
well, 60 percent of reserves is in EURO when EURCHF was at 1.2, if it goes to 1.1 how much will be the loss? in addition, who can guarantee that the rate will remain at 1.1, the SNB floor @1.1 again? so what will be the outcome? more pressure on economy, deflation, recession and a great deal of loss.
  • #9,009
  • Aug 9, 2012 6:06am Aug 9, 2012 6:06am
Quoting alesss
if we think clear, swiss economics data are not bad

- surplus in trade balance
- 2,9% jobless
- economic growth
- KOF leading indicator is going up
- switzerland's bond yield is the lowest of the world

Yes, it's true, CHF is overvalued and there is deflatión because swiss franc is too much strong. But if EURCHF goes down to 1,10, it would not be a catastrophy because swiss economic data are good, except CPI

In Greece, Irland, Portugal, Italy and Spain are much worse
Swiss enterprises are still quite challenged with 1.20 and a lot of companies are shifting their costs out of switzerland, because a 1.20 floor still is too strong for them to cover costs. So 1.10 seems to be just impossible for many companies, as their profit margin doesn't exist anymore at todays 1.20. We don't have to mention the shift of capital and work out of switzerland in such a case (1.10).

Beside of 1.20 is still challenging the economy, deflation still remains and drags switzerland deeper into problems. So in my opinion, there is really no reason, why to lower the peg.
  • #9,010
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:16am Aug 9, 2012 7:16am
Quoting Swissie
Swiss enterprises are still quite challenged with 1.20 and a lot of companies are shifting their costs out of switzerland, because a 1.20 floor still is too strong for them to cover costs. So 1.10 seems to be just impossible for many companies, as their profit margin doesn't exist anymore at todays 1.20. We don't have to mention the shift of capital and work out of switzerland in such a case (1.10).

Beside of 1.20 is still challenging the economy, deflation still remains and drags switzerland deeper into problems. So in my opinion, there is...
Yes it's better 1,30 than 1,20 and 1,20 is better than 1,10. But it's not a catastrophy if eurchf falls until 1,10
  • #9,011
  • Aug 9, 2012 7:26am Aug 9, 2012 7:26am
Quoting alesss
Yes it's better 1,30 than 1,20 and 1,20 is better than 1,10. But it's not a catastrophy if eurchf falls until 1,10
about 8 % less margin on sales into EUR-Land... in the long run it is a catastrophy
  • #9,012
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:01am Aug 9, 2012 10:01am
How about a test of the floor in thin market conditions?
  • #9,013
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:14am Aug 9, 2012 10:14am
Quoting brinks
How about a test of the floor in thin market conditions?
This is what I'm very very afraid. I place no stop loss - SNB is my stop loss.
I can survive till 20pips below floor. A spike below that is unimaginable.

But SNB is on 24/7, is that right? With big orders placed around the floor I hope.
  • #9,014
  • Edited 10:33am Aug 9, 2012 10:20am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting alaneth
This is what I'm very very afraid. I place no stop loss - SNB is my stop loss.
I can survive till 20pips below floor. A spike below that is unimaginable.

But SNB is on 24/7, is that right? With big orders placed around the floor I hope.
The last that i read on forexlive was the SNB had a huge bid at the 1.20 level trying to make a point.

And they have desks ready at all times.
I would say there are big SNB bids at 1.20050

I think a test is coming
  • #9,015
  • Aug 9, 2012 11:04am Aug 9, 2012 11:04am
It's always going to be possible for the market to test this level (the 1.2000 floor), but we know what the result is going to be.

The market will be beaten by the SNB enforcing the floor price. At least for the near future. The SNB have made themselves very clear on this point.

Either way, I like this trade as it pays me positive swap and my downside is theoretically limited to a bit below the 1.2000 level.

Any upward movements gives me the opportunity to cash out at a profit and wait to get back in when it falls back.
  • #9,016
  • Aug 9, 2012 1:12pm Aug 9, 2012 1:12pm
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By EVA SZALAY

(Euro Crisis is the Wall Street Journal Online's site for European real-time analysis http://blogs.wsj.com/source)

The drama-prone Swiss franc once again grabbed the market's attention this week when it took a swift dive against the euro before immediately snapping back.

Late in the global day Monday, the euro shot up from CHF1.2010 against the Swissie, as it is affectionately known, to CHF1.2092.

That is a small move by the standard of most currencies. But it was a chunky shift for the franc, which generally barely budges from that lower level, with CHF1.20 the hard limit set by the Swiss National Bank nearly a year ago.

This time around, the goofy rate was caused by a trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland mistakenly entering a rate onto a trading system that was way off market prices.

A bad day for that RBS trader, no doubt. Also a bad day for anyone holding financial-market bets that were contingent on the euro's exchange rate against the franc standing still. More broadly, however, there was no harm done.

But the incident does raise an interesting question: why do these things always seem to happen to the franc? The event was a rerun of a spike in the exchange rate in late May. That was caused by a rare flicker of genuine franc-selling interest from a large bank. With the euro under intense stress and with demand for the safe retreat of the Swiss franc strong, day-to-day orders to sell the franc are rare enough to upend the market.

These Swissie mini-dramas are likely to keep on happening, amid an explosive mix of the SNB's currency policy and the rise and rise of computer-driven trading.

All currency traders know that the central bank will buy euros whenever the rate gets to CHF1.20. As a result, many program their computers automatically to buy the single currency when the exchange rate gets close to that point, in an effort to piggyback on official buying.

"People expect the SNB to defend the floor and program their algorithms to sell the euro aggressively," a London-based trader said. "Also, people are mindful that the SNB could try to move the floor higher and the computers are set to get on the back of that move as quickly as possible."

This week's slip-up comes hot on the heels of the near-disastrous computer glitch that cost Knight Capital Inc. KCG -2.22% (KCG) $440 million last week. The Knight drama unfolded in equity markets, but as currency trading becomes increasingly electronic and computer-driven, market participants are mindful of the possibility that such technology glitches could spur disorderly moves in currency prices too.

The Swissie is high on the list of currencies where this could get ugly.
  • #9,017
  • Aug 9, 2012 2:33pm Aug 9, 2012 2:33pm
Start to think that "the spike" was a buystop order killing by SNB.
One year passed still deflation, no action so far...maybe. Economy does well on steroids but how long in this environment.Action time soon?
  • #9,018
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:08am Aug 10, 2012 3:08am
I'm Bored. this is extremely boring

I thint the best is close positions and wait until september, before the meeting
  • #9,019
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:16am Aug 10, 2012 3:16am
Quoting alesss
I'm Bored. this is extremely boring

I thint the best is close positions and wait until september, before the meeting
Your right it is very boring but i'm leaving mine on.

There wasnt much of a bounce before the last meeting because the SNB had ruled out any raise in the floor so i dont see why it should be different in september
  • #9,020
  • Aug 10, 2012 3:32am Aug 10, 2012 3:32am
Quoting brinks
Your right it is very boring but i'm leaving mine on.

There wasnt much of a bounce before the last meeting because the SNB had ruled out any raise in the floor so i dont see why it should be different in september
I think there not will be volatility in august because it's summer, but maybe in september we have new events about capital controls or other thing. i hope there is another spike in september
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