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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #318,321
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:04pm Jul 6, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting Niranj
sorry i wont next time, its just i posted one before so i had to requote for it
Hey dude, it's ok I don't care at all, I was seriously just curious, please do whatever you like man, it works for me

And on that note, this is why I love forex and LOVE trading this pair, it is so damn precise .

I have done some channel studies and found something VERY interesting for the bears.
The channels are marked in yellow, blue and white thick lines.
The thinner red line is just showing price movement.

We started this year with a nice daily reversal at 5233 area. Following the price, it seems to me we are heading further down after the white channel break and are riding comfortably within the blue channel.

On the 4hr chart, we can clearly see the white channel break and retest.
Let's see what next week brings.

Comments welcome.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #318,322
  • Jul 6, 2012 8:12pm Jul 6, 2012 8:12pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hey dude, it's ok I don't care at all, I was seriously just curious, please do whatever you like man, it works for me

And on that note, this is why I love forex and LOVE trading this pair, it is so damn precise .

I have done some channel studies and found something VERY interesting for the bears.
The channels are marked in yellow, blue and white thick lines.
The thinner red line is just showing price movement.

We started this year with a nice daily reversal at 5233 area. Following the price, it seems to me we are...
hi mate. looks like a good analysis and obviously you are one of the best analysts on this forum. What do you think of the long term weekly support on the chart attached in the pic. you think it can act as a good support?
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  • #318,323
  • Edited 1:04am Jul 7, 2012 12:21am | Edited 1:04am
bit worried also but .. the PA did not break the solid blue box yet ... reversal area for shark patten ( C ) need to be confirmed first
http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...hark-bu-be.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1341545776

beside shark, already found another pattern also for reversal in daily tf as well as 4H tf tell, but i will see how market open first next week for sure ...

any1 see this pattern also in 1H tf ?
http://www.harmonictrader.com/3drivesbullre.jpg


aniway usdx show this ... hmmmmmmm what next then

***
about shark : here
Quoting redbeben
happy weekend to all.....

I was out,still am on the road but I have the road system with me and I can share a picture of it if you want to.
It is very prosystem that cost me a fortune but it worth all the penny

today I only got 90 pips and yesterday 200 but not on GU nor EU

anyway....as I expect the unexpected to happen with all currencies I might jump on a long GU TP 1.5550...yes,that's what I'm gonna do.

I might reconsider over weekend.but I'm still long....dunno why
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not euphoria follower
  • #318,324
  • Jul 7, 2012 2:19am Jul 7, 2012 2:19am
Hedge at Cable....hard weekend so far after good data from US, .....bounced slightly at 15465, still observing wether it will continue down to next resistance 1.55402......, the bearish trend is too strong, my pet also shown by iqyu5an already show some indication for reversal....but where exzactly????

Any opinion for next week....??????
  • #318,325
  • Jul 7, 2012 4:00am Jul 7, 2012 4:00am
Reports of Finland threatening to quit euro
  • #318,326
  • Jul 7, 2012 4:33am Jul 7, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Lordpip
Reports of Finland threatening to quit euro
The euro is finish-ed...
Nah seriously that was just one newspaper interview with the finance minister, all internal finnish crap.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #318,327
  • Jul 7, 2012 4:38am Jul 7, 2012 4:38am
indi is just an indi, only tools to draw automatically.

there is minimal and maximum ratio for each pattern .

no exact rule. the uncertainty is the real exact
Quoting Red Alert
Hedge at Cable....hard weekend so far after good data from US, .....bounced slightly at 15465, still observing wether it will continue down to next resistance 1.55402......, the bearish trend is too strong, my pet also shown by iqyu5an already show some indication for reversal....but where exzactly????

Any opinion for next week....??????
not euphoria follower
  • #318,328
  • Jul 7, 2012 5:23am Jul 7, 2012 5:23am
I'm lazy but I'll still post 2 charts

targets are on the charts

ON EU some 1.2400 and as soon as market opens
GU 1.5536-5550 as first stop and it depends if it continues or not

talking fundies now....still don't belive in them at all as other factors can spoil the party anyway.

anyway,if price does not make a full return on EU I'm afraid a 500 pips drop is imminent with retraces of 170-190 pips as a max

have fun and enjoy the weekend.I'm off till next week
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  • #318,329
  • Jul 7, 2012 5:47am Jul 7, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Red Alert
Hedge at Cable....hard weekend so far after good data from US, .....bounced slightly at 15465, still observing wether it will continue down to next resistance 1.55402......, the bearish trend is too strong, my pet also shown by iqyu5an already show some indication for reversal....but where exzactly????

Any opinion for next week....??????
The outlook for sterling depends on two main factors: the progress of the eurozone crisis and the ECB's monetary policy; and the possible resumption of quantitative easing.

I don’t see anything solid in the horizon for Euro and the policymakers seem to favour a gradual weakening of the currency in order to rebalance the Eurozone economies against the Far Eastern competition and engineer a manufacturing led growth. The only way the problem can be solved is to create jobs and a strong currency will not encourage such job creation.

All things considered, Sterling is doing well compared to the competition. It seems to have a quasi ‘safe haven’ status at present (look at the historic low bond yields) but how long it will last is anybody’s guess. Despite this the economic data coming out present a weak case which is going to encourage the Bank of England to continue with its quantitative easing programme. Based on this scenario, I remain bearish on the Pound in the short to medium term.

As for GU next week, here is my chart and the forecast (red dotted line). Assuming it stays within the downward channel, I am planning to go short (around 1.5520 area) with a TP 1.5390 where monthly pivot support is situated. SL will be 10 pips above the 50 EMA (green line) at the time of entry. I will change my stance if the price breaks the top of the channel.

Wishing you all green pips next week.
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  • #318,330
  • Jul 7, 2012 6:14am Jul 7, 2012 6:14am
Quoting Rasi
The outlook for sterling depends on two main factors: the progress of the eurozone crisis and the ECB's monetary policy; and the possible resumption of quantitative easing.

I don’t see anything solid in the horizon for Euro and the policymakers seem to favour a gradual weakening of the currency in order to rebalance the Eurozone economies against the Far Eastern competition and engineer a manufacturing led growth. The only way the problem can be solved is to create jobs and a strong currency will not encourage such job creation.

All things...
a daily close below 1.5465 will take pair to 1.5382 but still 1.5404 needs to be broken first

if a daily closes below that 1.5404 then we go to 1.5320-25 from were we bounce
  • #318,331
  • Jul 7, 2012 7:51am Jul 7, 2012 7:51am

http://www.harmonictrader.com/3drivesbullre.jpg
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1341658019
Quoting Rasi
The outlook for sterling depends on two main factors: the progress of the eurozone crisis and the ECB's monetary policy; and the possible resumption of quantitative easing.

I don’t see anything solid in the horizon for Euro and the policymakers seem to favour a gradual weakening of the currency in order to rebalance the Eurozone economies against the Far Eastern competition and engineer a manufacturing led growth. The only way the problem can be solved is to create jobs and a strong currency will not encourage such job creation.

All things...
not euphoria follower
  • #318,332
  • Jul 7, 2012 7:59am Jul 7, 2012 7:59am
UK is flooded....maybe the economy will drown and GBP won't exist anymore

this is a very good example on how both fundies and techs mean nothing in trading.

just do what faller does...if you have profit take it or just BE as soon as possible or lock profit

so the brits thought that if they lower the GBP they will have have sells due to the olympics....but if it is raining as the weather predicts till the start of the games and maybe later...and if half the country is submerged....how would that help ?

normally when there are floods the economy is kind of f**** as they need social protection,no food so need to import,no tourism no sun,depresion,headackes

so who can predict a war or a weather problem in the economy ?

small rain can be blown away by planes...what about heavy one ?
  • #318,333
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:01am Jul 7, 2012 8:01am
PA broke last week low and 4H before market close, something push price back to stay above last week low.

and found PA kiss back 5500 area at the weekend ( hmmm who play ? )

let see how market open
Quoting redbeben
a daily close below 1.5465 will take pair to 1.5382 but still 1.5404 needs to be broken first

if a daily closes below that 1.5404 then we go to 1.5320-25 from were we bounce
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not euphoria follower
  • #318,334
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:29am Jul 7, 2012 8:29am
Quoting iqyu5an
PA broke last week low and 4H before market close, something push price back to stay above last week low.

and found PA kiss back 5500 area at the weekend ( hmmm who play ? )

let see how market open
yup,

I am long....but I am always long on GU

since 1.5610 when I first loaded massive

still on daily about to have a perfect sell setup...

on H4 and daily on the other hand there are the gartleys(or how they are called ) pointing to 1.5700....my setup points lower for the moment
  • #318,335
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:37am Jul 7, 2012 8:37am
Quoting redbeben
UK is flooded....maybe the economy will drown and GBP won't exist anymore

this is a very good example on how both fundies and techs mean nothing in trading.

just do what faller does...if you have profit take it or just BE as soon as possible or lock profit

so the brits thought that if they lower the GBP they will have have sells due to the olympics....but if it is raining as the weather predicts till the start of the games and maybe later...and if half the country is submerged....how would that help ?

normally when there are...

I live in UK (South East) and right now the weather is cloudy but reasonably bright with 19 degrees. There is rain and a weather warning for South West of England. Only a few months ago we have had a dry weather spell and reservoir water levels were dangerously low. UK is one of the most heavily insured countries in the world with the largest insurance market in the world. If there are flood related losses, they will be covered by insurance unlike in some developing countries. As for Olympics it is happening in London which is in the South East. So no worries. In any case the economic gain from the Olympics is only £19 Billion so its not going to make any big difference to the economy as such. In any case most of the profits are already accounted for (infrastructure done.. tickets sold.. hotel rooms booked.. etc).

It always rain in England and the country/people are used to it. As for GBP, it has survived a long time and will do so for a long time to come. Unfortunately, one cannot say that about Euro which seems to be the root cause of world's economic problem at present. Will it survive the economic Tsunami? Time will tell...
  • #318,336
  • Edited 9:21am Jul 7, 2012 8:39am | Edited 9:21am
Thank you everybody for repply my post regarding the movement for next week....very nice opinion...., now i am trying to share my opinion as the following:

i use H4 TF, we have huge bullish gartley, showing potential reversal. in this TF all MA still pointing down indicating the current trend is strongly bearish, Yellow box pattern is PRZ (potential reversal zone), ranging between1.5345-15490. Inside PRZ we have some line indicating fibo inside the area, (possibilities in case the reversal extended lower inside PRZ area).

Possibilities will be, current reversal is valid, it should go to 38.2 fibo (1.5336) and 50 fibo (1.5555) (fibo from 1.5465 to 1.605), if it fail to break, it will down to the inside PRZ area, then we wait where exzactly the price will reverse. If it continuing down then our gartley is failed pattern and maybe will be metamorf become the other pattern.

If the bullish continuing from mentioned fibo (38.2, 50. 61.8) next target 1.5605, extention fibo 161.8 1.5702 or it will be possible to upperline Bollinger band to 1.5745 (redbeben target).

If bullish failed, and friday low 1.5465 broken, the next target is 1.5445, 1.5402, 1.5395, 1.5345.

my hedge till i get the clearer situation...

Goodluck everybody......
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  • #318,337
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:46am Jul 7, 2012 8:46am
Quoting redbeben
yup,

I am long....but I am always long on GU

since 1.5610 when I first loaded massive

still on daily about to have a perfect sell setup...

on H4 and daily on the other hand there are the gartleys(or how they are called ) pointing to 1.5700....my setup points lower for the moment
Hi redbeben, yes, i will close my hedge if bullish is valid, the gartley can be seen on my chart.... but the trend is still bearish...we will see
  • #318,338
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:54am Jul 7, 2012 8:54am
Quoting Rasi
I live in UK (South East) and right now the weather is cloudy but reasonably bright with 19 degrees. There is rain and a weather warning for South West of England. Only a few months ago we have had a dry weather spell and reservoir water levels were dangerously low. UK is one of the most heavily insured countries in the world with the largest insurance market in the world. If there are flood related losses, they will be covered by insurance unlike in some developing countries. As for Olympics it is happening in London which is in the South East....

The root cause of the worlds problems is greed and people being pressured to live beyond their means, particularly in the western world.

The Euro is simply paper used by people
Money never sleeps...
  • #318,339
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:57am Jul 7, 2012 8:57am
Quoting Red Alert
Thank you everybody for repply my post regarding the movement for next week....very nice opinion...., now i am trying to share my opinion as the following:

i use H4 TF, we have huge bullish gartley, showing potential reversal. in this TF all MA still pointing down indicating the current trend is strongly bearish, Yellow box pattern is PRZ (potential reversal zone), ranging between1.5345-15490. Inside PRZ we have some line indicating fibo inside the area, (possibilities in case the reversal extended lower inside PRZ area).

Possibilities will...
you do have a nice chart there...definitely clearer than mine so I can see the price there

I'm not good at cgiving any advice nor trying to correct anybody,just sharing from my experience and my mistakes here....meaning don't do what I have done

so...I only think hedging is kind of risky in any way you are doing it.

or you could do it by trailing one side till it gets stopped and you maybe have the reversal.

a safer and better way to do one hedge is not to hedge at all and use a SL.if it hits it hits...

I've been trapped in the past with hedges so I know It is hard to decide when to close one profit and keep the minus one

or,if the hedge is started as an extreme measure of protection for the account it might even have a gap that big that both sides could stay in minus for months

basically if you have a buy on EU @ 1.2500 and you are now 200 pips minus and you opened a sell just now you will be 200 pips minus up there....

if price goes beyond 1.2500 your sell minus will grow.if price goes below 1.2300 your buy minus will grow...so you will always have same amount on minus.

meaning you will only trade...the equity not the whole balance...so wouldn't be better just to cut the first red one when it is small and retrade all to gain the lost ? at the end of the day with the smaller equity a hedger does the same

I've been hedging little in currency but in my ex job I was doing it a lot and most of the times the diff from at least one side in plus or both in red was like the chances of flipping a coin and falling on the edge

In trading I only hedge if I swing one and hedge intraday

like I have now longs on GU with a high TP I would still sell GU on M1 or M5

anyway,don't mind me,I'm just bored and still running
  • #318,340
  • Edited 9:22am Jul 7, 2012 9:12am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting redbeben
you do have a nice chart there...definitely clearer than mine so I can see the price there

I'm not good at cgiving any advice nor trying to correct anybody,just sharing from my experience and my mistakes here....meaning don't do what I have done

so...I only think hedging is kind of risky in any way you are doing it.

or you could do it by trailing one side till it gets stopped and you maybe have the reversal.

a safer and better way to do one hedge is not to hedge at all and use a SL.if it hits it hits...

I've been trapped...
Hi redbeben......, thank you anyway for your advise....it really helpfull for me. My plan is to close buy or sell side but wait till clearer situation. To be honest i hedge bacause margin call. you know, i always withdraw the profit every i got....why?...because i know, i feel comfort to trade within my comfortable zone of risk. I still cannot control myself to manage lotsize when my equity grow significantly. So it's normal for me to withdraw-inject-withdraw-inject again. The most important withdraw morethan inject right?......lately I got boring, and last week i made trading plan to grow my equity with certain growth level. I will normalize my equity and then i will exit hedging with correct timing.
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