wft is waiting ECB for buying spain bonds.
- #8,023
- Jun 18, 2012 9:02am Jun 18, 2012 9:02am
Jordan said on 14th Mar, "Another appreciation would have a serious impact on both prices and the economy in Switzerland. The SNB will not tolerate this. If necessary, it stands ready to take further measures at any time."
The 3 highlighted phrases points out that SNB is running out of time & cannot print CHF for long. The "further measures" may also include : cap control (or -ve interest rates) or raise of the peg. And it can happen "at any time".
I believe there is still a chance for the raise of the peg, and when all of us don't expect it, it will catch us by surprise.
I also strongly believe that negative rates can help SNB. There are many people out there saving their money & when a -ve rate is imposed, no matter how small, they will shun away! The last time SNB tried -ve rates are in the 1970s. Now 40 yrs have passed. The economy has changed.
Why don't SNB try this out. Don't go and impose -1%. Just do a small 25bp or -0.25%. You will surely get many Greek, Spanish etc savers to remove most of their funds from Switzerland.
.....
I wonder if any SNB officials may read this forum? I'm not an economist, but I think my 'advice' above may be good for them...... & also for us speculators
win-win situation!
The 3 highlighted phrases points out that SNB is running out of time & cannot print CHF for long. The "further measures" may also include : cap control (or -ve interest rates) or raise of the peg. And it can happen "at any time".
I believe there is still a chance for the raise of the peg, and when all of us don't expect it, it will catch us by surprise.
I also strongly believe that negative rates can help SNB. There are many people out there saving their money & when a -ve rate is imposed, no matter how small, they will shun away! The last time SNB tried -ve rates are in the 1970s. Now 40 yrs have passed. The economy has changed.
Why don't SNB try this out. Don't go and impose -1%. Just do a small 25bp or -0.25%. You will surely get many Greek, Spanish etc savers to remove most of their funds from Switzerland.
.....
I wonder if any SNB officials may read this forum? I'm not an economist, but I think my 'advice' above may be good for them...... & also for us speculators
win-win situation!
.....
I wonder if any SNB officials may read this forum? I'm not an economist, but I think my 'advice' above may be good for them...... & also for us speculators
What about wiping them out by crashing it down for a moment, before taking some decent action to weaken chf?
- #8,027
- Jun 18, 2012 9:34am Jun 18, 2012 9:34am
hmm. But speculators are waiting just for it to jump up and then rake profits and thus move it back against snb again. No?
What about wiping them out by crashing it down for a moment, before taking some decent action to weaken chf?
But SNB is so staunchly defending their floor with "utmost determination", so I don't think there's much they can do. Small negative rates or cap controls for foreign funds are still the best options.
- #8,030
- Edited 10:09am Jun 18, 2012 9:53am | Edited 10:09am
- | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,247 Posts
