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EUR/CHF

  • #8,001
  • Jun 17, 2012 6:49pm Jun 17, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting AlexLo
I terminated all my positions on friday. My broker ActivTrades started to get cute on the CHF pairs, first they doubled the margin requirement and now they lowered the leverage to 1/8 and 1/16... So yeah, I'm out.

To be perfectly honest, I don't see this pair going anywhere anytime soon, besides there's a lot of money to be made with other pairs, no need to nurse this pair forever ( I gave my EURCHF trades more then 3 months to develop, yet this particular pair decided to sit there and act stupid, I have only so much patience lads )...
Instead I made a capital increase to stay within the margins.
  • #8,002
  • Jun 17, 2012 8:17pm Jun 17, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting zweck
On saxo it was lowest 1.1990.

So, anyone gave up on eurchf after this weekend?

How many warriors have we lost?
At least Swisswarrior still here for lasting war! Cheers!
  • #8,003
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:08am Jun 18, 2012 1:08am
I wonder if we may see a little up move in the pair this week
  • #8,004
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:10am Jun 18, 2012 1:10am
Quoting Swisswarrior
At least Swisswarrior still here for lasting war! Cheers!
good bye longs....salute to those long warriors who left us....die in peace

Jordan,SNB you are winning....or are you just pretending to everyone you are winning?


Last year,SNB was forced to act after it printed 200+ billions, now we are in mid June, I predict SNB has already printed 100+ billions in the past six weeks. Iam waiting to see 200~300+ billions.


Danish government came out today and said they might implement policy tools to curbe the inflow.
  • #8,005
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:20am Jun 18, 2012 1:20am
Quoting brinks
I wonder if we may see a little up move in the pair this week
Probably not, if there is an upward move next time, it should be bigger ones, no more small moves. The only problem is, who knows how long we have to wait.

Longs closing, shorts piling, SNB dumping.

Lets just set back and relax for a few weeks.
  • #8,006
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:33am Jun 18, 2012 1:33am
Quoting tim10167
Probably not, if there is an upward move next time, it should be bigger ones, no more small moves. The only problem is, who knows how long we have to wait.

Longs closing, shorts piling, SNB dumping.

Lets just set back and relax for a few weeks.
yep relax is the word the SNB havent let the floor go even under very tough circumstances.

Its a waiting game now i think
  • #8,007
  • Jun 18, 2012 1:50am Jun 18, 2012 1:50am
Quoting brinks
yep relax is the word the SNB havent let the floor go even under very tough circumstances.

Its a waiting game now i think
Iam 90% sure SNB's next move will be a "surprise" move inorder to get the best effect, if it is a "surprise", then who knows when, just relax and let the surprise come to us.

Almost everything is developing in favor of longs, we should be watching SNB's currency reserve increase very very closly as it will be the main determinant of SNB's action near term.
  • #8,008
  • Jun 18, 2012 2:32am Jun 18, 2012 2:32am
here we go:

"SNB intervention last week rose 17.9bn (weekly average), the largest single increase in this latest round of intervention."
  • #8,009
  • Jun 18, 2012 2:45am Jun 18, 2012 2:45am
Quoting tim10167
here we go:

"SNB intervention last week rose 17.9bn (weekly average), the largest single increase in this latest round of intervention."
I find the SNB tactics a little confusing.
  • #8,010
  • Jun 18, 2012 3:07am Jun 18, 2012 3:07am
Quoting brinks
I find the SNB tactics a little confusing.
not if we understand a bit more about the importance of the banking service industry in Swizertland, this is one of the main reason why SNB is reluctant to go further untill now.
  • #8,011
  • Jun 18, 2012 3:35am Jun 18, 2012 3:35am
Quoting tim10167
not if we understand a bit more about the importance of the banking service industry in Swizertland, this is one of the main reason why SNB is reluctant to go further untill now.
where and what is the connection between the banking industry and further monetary measures of SNB?
  • #8,012
  • Jun 18, 2012 4:27am Jun 18, 2012 4:27am
Quoting Swissie
where and what is the connection between the banking industry and further monetary measures of SNB?
:-S
  • #8,013
  • Jun 18, 2012 4:30am Jun 18, 2012 4:30am
Quoting Swissie
where and what is the connection between the banking industry and further monetary measures of SNB?
I would like to know it as well. By one hand there's an additional risk in the booming real estate, but it has advantadges too. However, when I see sight deposist increasing thanks to SNB unlimited supply of Swiss francs, I can't understand what is the problem for banks...

Actually, it's clear SNB won't lift the floor (because he would make hints before), but not for banks, but because Jordan hates the euro or intervening. So forget it! Someday SNB will be required to give up the floor. So there's more risk than expected profits
  • #8,014
  • Jun 18, 2012 4:37am Jun 18, 2012 4:37am
Quoting qatar
I would like to know it as well. By one hand there's an additional risk in the booming real estate, but it has advantadges too. However, when I see sight deposist increasing thanks to SNB unlimited supply of Swiss francs, I can't understand what is the problem for banks...

Actually, it's clear SNB won't lift the floor (because he would make hints before), but not for banks, but because Jordan hates the euro or intervening. So forget it! Someday SNB will be required to give up the floor. So there's more risk than expected profits
You got a crystal ball? Or you are an executive at SNB?
  • #8,015
  • Jun 18, 2012 5:50am Jun 18, 2012 5:50am
Quoting alexcee
You got a crystal ball? Or you are an executive at SNB?
Not exactly a crystal ball, and neither I am an executive in SNB. I should improve my English and german first.

But it's very clear. Big players are long in swiss francs, real money too. If at 1,2000 are required 17 bn per week of new francs, how much will be at 1,25000? Only some especulators waiting to become rich are in the same side than SNB. Next weeks nothing will happen, and in some months, being short in EURCHF will be deserving. Deflation is not worsening and if a -1% inflation rate would be a problem, SNB would have lifted the floor already to at least 1,25 or even 1,30, or suggesting it would force that level in the future if market doesn't...

Nothing has happened and nothing will happen. It's not true speculative longs are closing. Some are closing in Saxo and opening in FXCM... most still believe it may be a spike or even a lift to 1,25... nothing of that will happen. Not with Jordan. And maintaining positions opened only to earn swaps I don't believe it's deserving. Apart from the fact all reliable brokers will reduce swaps to 0 or negative, as they are already doing.
  • #8,016
  • Jun 18, 2012 6:58am Jun 18, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Swissie
where and what is the connection between the banking industry and further monetary measures of SNB?
what I mean here is the introduction of capital control will have very negative affect on the banking industry, who would want to save money in Swiss banks if there are so many unfriendly restrictions?
  • #8,017
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:06am Jun 18, 2012 7:06am
Quoting qatar
I would like to know it as well. By one hand there's an additional risk in the booming real estate, but it has advantadges too. However, when I see sight deposist increasing thanks to SNB unlimited supply of Swiss francs, I can't understand what is the problem for banks...

Actually, it's clear SNB won't lift the floor (because he would make hints before), but not for banks, but because Jordan hates the euro or intervening. So forget it! Someday SNB will be required to give up the floor. So there's more risk than expected profits
SNB is printing CHF for people who change EURO with them, the main problem is not having too much Euro (though it is still a problem) as they can change it to other currencies, stocks, bonds....., the main problem is printing too much CHF, yes it is true that some inflow whent into banks deposits and Swiss bonds which will not go into the real economy, but if a portion of that "huge" printed money went into the real economy, like real estate etc., there is a high risk of inflation in the future...., and Switzerland certainly experienced it before in the 1970s, I agree that SNB may not lift the floor, but it has to stop printing very soon....
  • #8,018
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:12am Jun 18, 2012 7:12am
Quoting tim10167
SNB is printing CHF for people who change EURO with them, the main problem is not having too much Euro (though it is still a problem) as they can change it to other currencies, stocks, bonds....., the main problem is printing too much CHF, yes it is true that some inflow whent into banks deposits and Swiss bonds which will not go into the real economy, but if a portion of that "huge" printed money went into the real economy, like real estate etc., there is a high risk of inflation in the future...., and Switzerland certainly experienced it before...
For every country's citizen, housing assets are normally their biggest asset class, if it crashes, the affect are normally much more severe than normal economic slowdown
  • #8,019
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:56am Jun 18, 2012 7:56am
Quoting tim10167
SNB is printing CHF for people who change EURO with them, the main problem is not having too much Euro (though it is still a problem) as they can change it to other currencies, stocks, bonds....., the main problem is printing too much CHF, yes it is true that some inflow whent into banks deposits and Swiss bonds which will not go into the real economy, but if a portion of that "huge" printed money went into the real economy, like real estate etc., there is a high risk of inflation in the future...., and Switzerland certainly experienced it before...

This is the reason why SNB should give up someday the floor, because of inflation. Otherwise would be a free way to accumulate foreign reserves for SNB (for Switzerland then), which is doing the most severe QE in the developed world (FED and BoE are ridiculous). Ok, it's true that they are not financing public budget deficits and buying national bonds, but the opposite, and those who are buying francs are not going to spend them but sights deposits in banks will imply new loans unless SNB increases reserve requirements. This could be what banks may be afraid of, but they have power to charge huge comissions to fearful foreign investors. But at the moment, long term inflation risks may and should worry SNB. And I do not see SNB willing to ask more cash reserves to banks. Even Credit Suisse is able to defy SNB when it has been asked to raise capital
  • #8,020
  • Jun 18, 2012 7:59am Jun 18, 2012 7:59am
spanish yield 7.28%, looks like Swiss capital control inevitable
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