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EUR/CHF

  • #4,021
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:20pm Apr 1, 2012 10:20pm
By: Sean Lee Dealers say they anticipate that the SNB will be buying EUR/CHF initially at 1.2020 Large bids also expected from the SNB at 1.2000 Stop-loss sell orders below 1.1995 now reportedly exceeding EUR28 billion, which is such a huge number it's difficult to grasp
  • #4,022
  • Apr 2, 2012 12:54am Apr 2, 2012 12:54am
Quoting qatar
I am short at 1,2044. I believe that it cannot go higher than 1,2055, and it will break 1,20000. Charts do not cheat: downtrend is clear

It's very strange situation: analysts recommending buying EURCHF, 90% retail investors are long, favourable news... but euro weakening. This cannot finish well for most of us (being long)

I am not very expirienced in FOREX, but do you know other cases which individual investors have been so convinced of a direction and it has not been painful for them?
http://www.swifttick.com/analysis/20...-continue.html

This guys somehow see the way of trading eurchf under a light similar to your.
Good luck by the way
  • #4,023
  • Apr 2, 2012 1:16am Apr 2, 2012 1:16am
Quoting tunera
http://www.swifttick.com/analysis/20...-continue.html

This guys somehow see the way of trading eurchf under a light similar to your.
Good luck by the way
Of course the floor will continue. Jordan has stated the floor will remain in place because there is no other option. If they give up now, EURCHF would be at parity next week.

There is no way a central banker will choose deflation over inflation. All this talk of the SNB giving up on the floor is ridiculous. Expect a whole raft of desperate measures (capital controls, negative interest rates etc) before this is even contemplated.
  • #4,024
  • Apr 2, 2012 1:45am Apr 2, 2012 1:45am
Quoting Fizzerr
Of course the floor will continue. Jordan has stated the floor will remain in place because there is no other option. If they give up now, EURCHF would be at parity next week.

There is no way a central banker will choose deflation over inflation. All this talk of the SNB giving up on the floor is ridiculous. Expect a whole raft of desperate measures (capital controls, negative interest rates etc) before this is even contemplated.
Of course to sell now forecasting a break of the floor one must be very courageous, sometime market reward courage.
We never know what will happen untill it happen, right?
About me i'm just an "old" bull, but i admire sellers.
  • #4,025
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:35am Apr 2, 2012 2:35am
Very bad chf retail sales data... my opinion is that with every bad data that comes in there will be more louder voices shouting to raise the floor to 1.35-40 , we are in a very extraordinary situation.
consistency wins
  • #4,026
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:38am Apr 2, 2012 2:38am
Quoting iTrader
Very bad chf retail sales data... my opinion is that with every bad data that comes in there will be more louder voices shouting to raise the floor to 1.35-40 , we are in a very extraordinary situation.
A better than expected services pmi though
  • #4,027
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:41am Apr 2, 2012 2:41am
pmi was good...
  • #4,028
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:44am Apr 2, 2012 2:44am
Whatever it is....the most important question is: Are SNB going to care? If they do, then pls do something about it.
  • #4,029
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:36am Apr 2, 2012 3:36am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Like mega million last jackpot 640million..
EUR/CHF stops now 28 billion.. so you guys now.. who got that much liquidity absorbed
i say the same as u, a) and b)
  • #4,030
  • Apr 2, 2012 5:49am Apr 2, 2012 5:49am
Might be something else is the reason for the CHF demand, and the ugly downtrend: the constant payback of the CHF denominated mortgages.

Only in Hungary in the last couple of months 5 Billion CHF(!) has been paid back and have been bought against EUR...the reason of that was the forced closing of mortgages by the government where the banks lost approximately 1 billion CHF on the fx rate. Still, only in Hungary further 16 billion CHF backed mortgagae loan exists with a duration maybe10y+

Anyone have an idea, that what could be the total amount that weighs on the pair as there are currently minimal lending in CHF?

  • #4,031
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:07am Apr 2, 2012 6:07am
Quoting pipxster
Might be something else is the reason for the CHF demand, and the ugly downtrend: the constant payback of the CHF denominated mortgages.

Only in Hungary in the last couple of months 5 Billion CHF(!) has been paid back and have been bought against EUR...the reason of that was the forced closing of mortgages by the government where the banks lost approximately 1 billion CHF on the fx rate. Still, only in Hungary further 16 billion CHF backed mortgagae loan exists with a duration maybe10y+

Anyone have an idea, that what could be the total amount...
Data source, please?
Easteuropean CHF mortgages are highly connected to EURCHF. Rumor is that over half of amount exists with open positions in fx trades (virtualy CHF backed mortgages)

Orban's decision was criticised, but no real answer from EU/banks came. Why?
  • #4,032
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:15am Apr 2, 2012 6:15am
Quoting pipxster
Might be something else is the reason for the CHF demand, and the ugly downtrend: the constant payback of the CHF denominated mortgages.

Only in Hungary in the last couple of months 5 Billion CHF(!) has been paid back and have been bought against EUR...the reason of that was the forced closing of mortgages by the government where the banks lost approximately 1 billion CHF on the fx rate. Still, only in Hungary further 16 billion CHF backed mortgagae loan exists with a duration maybe10y+

Anyone have an idea, that what could be the total amount...
That is the problem of a strong CHF. If those banks cannot full fill their obligation then the Swiss banking system is at risk, and the premium that those banks are having to pay for the Swiss apreciation is still to big at 1.20 and the risk becomes fear below 1.20... The peg will hold but intraday the brokers will try to open the spread as much as possible when aproaching the 1.20 level and try to run as many stop losses as posible. The brokers will try to make a run and that is where the SNB will have to show what they are able to. 28 Billion is a big reward... of course they will try that run.
  • #4,033
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:39am Apr 2, 2012 6:39am
$EURCHF: Inability for cross to show any fear of the 1.2000 barrier leads us to believe that we could soon see a breach of the SNB level.


DailyFX Joel...comments
  • #4,034
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:43am Apr 2, 2012 6:43am
No one knows what EC is gonna do, if it breaks 1.20 it can as easily break 1.19 or 1.18 everyone is gambling on intervention (that maybe come next year or so, or not at all)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,035
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:40am Apr 2, 2012 7:40am
Quoting coolkaps4u
$EURCHF: Inability for cross to show any fear of the 1.2000 barrier leads us to believe that we could soon see a breach of the SNB level.


DailyFX Joel...comments
sell sell sell
  • #4,036
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:48am Apr 2, 2012 7:48am
Quoting tunera
sell sell sell
SOLD.. SOLD.. SOLD...

  • #4,037
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:49am Apr 2, 2012 7:49am
Quoting coolkaps4u
SOLD.. SOLD.. SOLD...

rotfl rotfl rotfl
  • #4,038
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:55am Apr 2, 2012 7:55am
donno guys. i wont sell, i wait.
  • #4,039
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:58am Apr 2, 2012 7:58am
Quoting worsttrader
donno guys. i wont sell, i wait.
my sell was a sarcastic one
  • #4,040
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:00am Apr 2, 2012 8:00am
Quoting tunera
my sell was a sarcastic one
oh sry our state president just resigned an hour ago and now im take everything so serious
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