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EUR/CHF

  • #3,981
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:46am Mar 31, 2012 2:46am
Quoting Cuso
This has got to be the most evil, widest head & shoulder pattern I've ever seen in my life:

Attachment

But as everyone knows TA plays absolutely no role here.
think ain't no head and shoulder, its a new tech pattern called the erect boner...
  • #3,982
  • Mar 31, 2012 4:25am Mar 31, 2012 4:25am
Quoting MiG123
think ain't no head and shoulder, its a new tech pattern called the erect boner...
lol
  • #3,983
  • Edited 10:20am Mar 31, 2012 10:04am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting MiG123
think ain't no head and shoulder, its a new tech pattern called the erect boner...
Tip of me hat laddie!

You may laugh but seriously, I'm looking at the 1.2040 and that's the first big level what could mean anything from the TA aspect.

I'm looking for a break of that 1.2040 level, just to see if the pair breaks down because nothing has happened for over 2 months at all from the TA side!

Other than a big spike, sparked from one single rumor and very short lived to boot, this pair has been very compressed in a intensely narrow range.

Everyone speculates that sooner or later that the SNB REALLY has to defend the 1.2000 floor, but what is the level when they press the button? Not at 1.2040... but at least lower than the last low on the 22.02 at 1.2035, which is about exactly where we are today.

We need a kick if nothing in the rumor mill is brewing, and the pair looks heavy to me.

I see a huge double bottom which maybe offers a good break of 15 pips down to the 1.2020 level if it breaks hard on Monday morning, which is also a level what could start to make the SNB nervous.

If by accident, or some freak of nature we get a tradeable movement I'm looking to double my long position at at that level with a stop at 1.2007 on the new half, because if the SNB lets it fall past that, I don't want to be caught in a possible spike after a break of the 1.2000 level with both. I myself have a alternate long entry planned further down.

I think the R/R is pretty good if you speculate that the SNB will defend the 1.2000 floor BEFORE the 1.2000 floor is reached.

But of course maybe I'm just seeing bugs in the charts, and nothing will happen. If it reverses on Monday or bounces off the 1.2040, I'm just reducing my drawdown and that's good enough for me.
  • #3,984
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:06am Mar 31, 2012 11:06am
Hallo all, how are things going here?
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  • #3,985
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:07am Mar 31, 2012 11:07am
I see that it's good that I left EC a little while ago since I was long around 1.2054 or so
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  • #3,986
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:17am Mar 31, 2012 11:17am
Quoting KillerWhale
I see that it's good that I left EC a little while ago since I was long around 1.2054 or so


why do y see it is good ?

i hope you right !
  • #3,987
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:27am Mar 31, 2012 11:27am
Quoting KillerWhale
I see that it's good that I left EC a little while ago since I was long around 1.2054 or so

same here..i took long 1.2057 but closed last friday -10pips. I think we gonna see spike down 150-200 pips if we break 1.2000 - to take out longs.And then huge jump up..
might be wrong but i got pending order 1.1930
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,988
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:29am Mar 31, 2012 11:29am
Lowest level 1.2026?
I have MT4 lowest on 02-01-12 = 1.20301
And now 03-30-12 = 1.20333

And Oanda had yesterday 03-30-12
7:00 AM PST 1.036
9:00 AM PST 1.036
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  • #3,989
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:55am Mar 31, 2012 11:55am
Quoting KillerWhale
Lowest level 1.2026?
I have MT4 lowest on 02-01-12 = 1.20301
And now 03-30-12 = 1.20333

And Oanda had yesterday 03-30-12
7:00 AM PST 1.036
9:00 AM PST 1.036
I'd like to know what the opinion is here, will it go lower or is it time to invest and take out at least 15-20 with high leverage or so?

It would be fun to buy €1 million funded by CHF but how long will it take to collect some decent profit?
Anyone who has a fundamentally sound view on that?
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  • #3,990
  • Mar 31, 2012 11:57am Mar 31, 2012 11:57am
Quoting eqshack
same here..i took long 1.2057 but closed last friday -10pips. I think we gonna see spike down 150-200 pips if we break 1.2000 - to take out longs.And then huge jump up..
might be wrong but i got pending order 1.1930
I thought there was a downward limit @ 1.20?
And if it goes through the 1.20 then 1.1930 is just a wild gamble, no one would know where it would stop.
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  • #3,991
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:05pm Mar 31, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I thought there was a downward limit @ 1.20?
And if it goes through the 1.20 then 1.1930 is just a wild gamble, no one would know where it would stop.
Sooooo, the only thing I can do is put it on my watch list
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  • #3,992
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:07pm Mar 31, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I thought there was a downward limit @ 1.20?
And if it goes through the 1.20 then 1.1930 is just a wild gamble, no one would know where it would stop.
thats what they say 1.20 but i dont belive it..If they do intervention then its better to take out LONGS and after that go up? Easier ? otherwise we gonna have big spike and huge profit taking and then fall back again.

We never know what they wanna do and whats going to happen.u are right..if it goes below 1.20 - we might go much deeper to wipe out bigger dogs too.

i hope 1.20 is tha floor.Going to take 1 lot long with stoploss 1.1970
anything can happen
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,993
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:12pm Mar 31, 2012 12:12pm
Just thinking out loud
Maybe it is wise to just put in a long trade @ 1.2080 with a 25 pip sl or so and an open target. If the Swiss bank wants to intervene then they will probably do it for a couple of hundred pips, not less.
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  • #3,994
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:17pm Mar 31, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Just thinking out loud
Maybe it is wise to just put in a long trade @ 1.2080 with a 25 pip sl or so and an open target. If the Swiss bank wants to intervene then they will probably do it for a couple of hundred pips, not less.
sounds good atleast 200-300 yeah. Oh we will see - hard to tell right now.Anything can happen bored as hell if market is closed.
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,995
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:18pm Mar 31, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Just thinking out loud
Maybe it is wise to just put in a long trade @ 1.2080 with a 25 pip sl or so and an open target. If the Swiss bank wants to intervene then they will probably do it for a couple of hundred pips, not less.
And in that case they won't allow it to fall right back otherwise it would not make sense at all.
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  • #3,996
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:19pm Mar 31, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting KillerWhale
And in that case they won't allow it to fall right back otherwise it would not make sense at all.
So that's what I'm going to do tomorrow
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  • #3,997
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:20pm Mar 31, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting KillerWhale
So that's what I'm going to do tomorrow
going to open 10 lot position ?
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #3,998
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:23pm Mar 31, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting eqshack
going to open 10 lot position ?
Probably, 10 lots @ 110.75 per pip and assuming minimal 320 pips from 1.2080 = $35,440. That would be very nice to start the second quarter with.
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  • #3,999
  • Edited 12:38pm Mar 31, 2012 12:25pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Probably, 10 lots @ 110.75 per pip and assuming minimal 320 pips from 1.2080 = $35,440. That would be very nice to start the second quarter with.
It would be "hit & run" because I don't want positive SWAP
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  • #4,000
  • Mar 31, 2012 12:26pm Mar 31, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
It would be "hit & run" because I don't want positive SWAP
No need to wake up the IRS by getting a 1099 for the interest received.
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