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EUR/CHF

  • #4,001
  • Mar 31, 2012 5:40pm Mar 31, 2012 5:40pm
Here is my most important tool that helps me to decide about direction
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,002
  • Mar 31, 2012 8:16pm Mar 31, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Here is my most important tool that helps me to decide about direction
test
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,003
  • Edited 1:15am Apr 1, 2012 1:03am | Edited 1:15am
When the SNB last intervened, it was an emergency situation with the pair at about parity. Why in heavens earth would the SNB let it spike below the 1.200, when it would just take more funds to catch the falling knife?

IMHO it makes sense that the SNB will defend with several small infusions instead of just one huge dose of liquidity. Their policy is still aimed at stability of the franc, which has worked for the last months, and excess volatility is paradox to this end.

We are going to see enough volatility anyway as the pair gets nearer to the 1.2000 and I'll probably just trail the stop on my new long (if it triggers) manually and watch price action.

Quoting KillerWhale
Just thinking out loud
Maybe it is wise to just put in a long trade @ 1.2080 with a 25 pip sl or so and an open target. If the Swiss bank wants to intervene then they will probably do it for a couple of hundred pips, not less.
My fear of a long entry about 1.2080 is that this level is just too low to confirm a real breakout higher, but for me is just one of the first big resistances on the way up. I would need a break of the 1.2130-50 range to confirm a major bottom. I must also say that I'm already long with a half from 1.2045 so a break above 1.2080 is still fine with me.

But the big thing that I don't like about long from 1.2080, is that at first we could just get a big bounce off the floor...right up to the 1.2070-1.2080 range. If it reverses and does a retest, the drawdown is just too big for me and the R/R is IMHO on the wrong side.

For me the best R/R is still a buy at 1.2020 and ride a possible 40-50 pip move up...if the SNB uses a preemptive timing, and a quiet hand in their intervention mechanics.

Everyone should do what they want. I've only got my finger on my trigger.
  • #4,004
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:20am Apr 1, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Cuso
When the SNB last intervened, it was an emergency situation with the pair at about parity. Why in heavens earth would the SNB let it spike below the 1.200, when it would just take more funds to catch the falling knife?

IMHO it makes sense that the SNB will defend with several small infusions instead of just one huge dose of liquidity. Their policy is still aimed at stability of the franc, which has worked for the last months, and excess volatility is paradox to this end.

We are going to see enough volatility anyway as the pair gets nearer...
Maybe you're right, I don't know at the moment. And I hate it when I can't make a clear decision so it might come down to just doing nothing at the moment.
I'm tired now and need some sleep so I'll find out how I think in 10 hours from now.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,005
  • Apr 1, 2012 3:49am Apr 1, 2012 3:49am
Quoting Cuso
When the SNB last intervened, it was an emergency situation with the pair at about parity. Why in heavens earth would the SNB let it spike below the 1.200, when it would just take more funds to catch the falling knife?

IMHO it makes sense that the SNB will defend with several small infusions instead of just one huge dose of liquidity. Their policy is still aimed at stability of the franc, which has worked for the last months, and excess volatility is paradox to this end...
Agree. And I think that this is what the SNB is already doing for the last months. I'm confident that they also have some buylimits in place which will eat up huge amounts of shorts at different price levels.
On the other hand I'd like to know, how much of the reversal after the last spike was because of SNB selling off positions to have dry powder again...
Fail better.
  • #4,006
  • Apr 1, 2012 9:15am Apr 1, 2012 9:15am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8F109I20120401

- Within 2 weeks Jordan will be names to president
- Deutsche Bank's Hugo Baenziger will be the 3rd board member
- Soical Democratic party (2.nd largest coalition party) call to raise to peg 1.4

I think we will see big volatility in the coming weeks...
  • #4,007
  • Apr 1, 2012 9:25am Apr 1, 2012 9:25am
Quoting Simon73
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8F109I20120401

- Within 2 weeks Jordan will be names to president
- Deutsche Bank's Hugo Baenziger will be the 3rd board member
- Soical Democratic party (2.nd largest coalition party) call to raise to peg 1.4

I think we will see big volatility in the coming weeks...
yeah, we are going to see movements of even 9-10 pips and more! must be careful
  • #4,008
  • Apr 1, 2012 9:27am Apr 1, 2012 9:27am
however, i hear also about some rumors about the new president already elected during this weekend, and to be announced moonday (tomorrow), probably just BS
  • #4,009
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:04am Apr 1, 2012 10:04am
exciting news sirs, lets see what happens next week.
  • #4,010
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:24am Apr 1, 2012 11:24am
test
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #4,011
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:29am Apr 1, 2012 11:29am
Quoting LarryDarrell
On the other hand I'd like to know, how much of the reversal after the last spike was because of SNB selling off positions to have dry powder again...
If the SNB has been playing boths sides of this pair, then I'm even more confident of my long. IMHO I agree with you, and think they have been very busy over the last couple of months.

They're trying to flatline this thing, and they are not letting it get out of their control.

If this is the case, the 1.2000 should not fall. One has to at least suspect that the Swiss can work with money.
  • #4,012
  • Apr 1, 2012 12:08pm Apr 1, 2012 12:08pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8F109I20120401


* Deutsche Bank's Hugo Baenziger to become third SNB board member

* Baenziger is leaving Deutsche Bank as chief risk officer

* Thomas Jordan to become permanent chief of SNB

* Announcement expected in the next two weeks


"So far the SNB has been able to defend the level of 1.20, but there were calls over the weekend from Switzerland's Social Democratic Party (SP) to move the cap to 1.40 per euro to prevent Swiss jobs from being moved abroad."

...would be nice
  • #4,013
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:22pm Apr 1, 2012 1:22pm
01-Apr-2012

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--The council that recommends candidates for the Swiss National Bank's board of policy-making directors has concluded its search for a third board member and is likely to recommend an external candidate, Swiss weekly Sonntagszeitung reports.

The third seat on the board has been vacant since the abrupt resignation of former president Philipp Hildebrand in January over a controversial currency trade. The government has said it plans to elect the third member in April.

It is widely expected that Vice-President Thomas Jordan will be named president. Most experts expect the third member will be chosen from within the SNB's ranks for lack of an obvious outside candidate.

Sonntagszeitung speculated that the third member could be Hugo Baenziger, a Swiss, who recently lost his position of chief risk officer at Deutsche Bank AG (DB).
  • #4,014
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:31pm Apr 1, 2012 2:31pm
I am all in now with EURCHF. My stop is at 1.1942. We'll see if this becomes a trade of a lifetime or a beginning of an end.
  • #4,015
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:45pm Apr 1, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting Dave Gareth
I am all in now with EURCHF. My stop is at 1.1942. We'll see if this becomes a trade of a lifetime or a beginning of an end.
Wow I feel like (and feel like everyone else feels like) that if it hits 1.1942 or even 1.1980, that it's going to try to test 1.1000
  • #4,016
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:57pm Apr 1, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting Joey Zazza
Wow I feel like (and feel like everyone else feels like) that if it hits 1.1942 or even 1.1980, that it's going to try to test 1.1000
if it hits 1942 or even 1980 the number of brokers who jump out the windows increase 300% on wall street
  • #4,017
  • Apr 1, 2012 3:40pm Apr 1, 2012 3:40pm
I am short at 1,2044. I believe that it cannot go higher than 1,2055, and it will break 1,20000. Charts do not cheat: downtrend is clear

It's very strange situation: analysts recommending buying EURCHF, 90% retail investors are long, favourable news... but euro weakening. This cannot finish well for most of us (being long)

I am not very expirienced in FOREX, but do you know other cases which individual investors have been so convinced of a direction and it has not been painful for them?
  • #4,018
  • Apr 1, 2012 4:16pm Apr 1, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting qatar
I am short at 1,2044. I believe that it cannot go higher than 1,2055, and it will break 1,20000. Charts do not cheat: downtrend is clear

It's very strange situation: analysts recommending buying EURCHF, 90% retail investors are long, favourable news... but euro weakening. This cannot finish well for most of us (being long)

I am not very expirienced in FOREX, but do you know other cases which individual investors have been so convinced of a direction and it has not been painful for them?
i think snb's declaration is more cleaner

"I am not very expirienced in FOREX," - i was quite sure in this when i read u r in short let me give u a hint, close ur position as soon as u r in positive range and open long.
  • #4,019
  • Apr 1, 2012 5:07pm Apr 1, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting worsttrader
i think snb's declaration is more cleaner

"I am not very expirienced in FOREX," - i was quite sure in this when i read u r in short let me give u a hint, close ur position as soon as u r in positive range and open long.
Well no one is right/wrong

If anyone of us right, the peg would have lifted.. and some of the guys were not under water huge longs from 1.21+ so this is not the case.. retailers always loose .. and market don't make rich everyone are true also..

Sit tight.. and see what happen's.. peg is near.. and SNB hasn't said anything from so long .. they are playing both sides..and will be more powerful even if the peg broke.. they will buy at lower level.. huge..
  • #4,020
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:06pm Apr 1, 2012 8:06pm
Like mega million last jackpot 640million..
EUR/CHF stops now 28 billion.. so you guys now.. who got that much liquidity absorbed

a) HEDGE FUNDS
b) BIG BANKS
c) CHF local demand by industrialist
d) SOROS like player,playing against SNB
e) SNB itself

my bet a), b).

.SNB is doubtful...

What you guys think so much shorts who is absorbing when EUR is flying..
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