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Silent Service Method

  • #13,601
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:21am Mar 14, 2012 8:21am
Quoting j4d
Hey Chris,

Most JPY pairs do look good at the mo, with all the BOJ intervention going on..
I'm Long CADJPY, Like you say this might have some legs in it,
we wait and see what the JPY will give us.....

Ja.
Yeah....and the CAD/JPY pair also has oil working in its favor. Japan shut down all but 2 nuclear reactors after the disaster, so it is presently at the mercy of the oil markets.....
  • #13,602
  • Mar 14, 2012 12:10pm Mar 14, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
As a result of the previous post, I am long this pair, and have been adding very small bits to it on pullbacks that show support. I am hoping to see this pair grind higher for months if not years. If 80 gives way as support - I would have to change my thinking. I believe we are heading to 85 in the short-term, and a pullback will happen from there as well. Although it has been somewhat parabolic, when you look at the longer term charts such as the monthly - this move is but a blip on the chart.....
I tend to watch the 100EMA on different timeframes and the weekly one is around 82.5, so I'm with you on the bias change.
Let's find some dips to buy on now...
  • #13,603
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:39pm Mar 14, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting clockwork71
As a result of the previous post, I am long this pair, and have been adding very small bits to it on pullbacks that show support. I am hoping to see this pair grind higher for months if not years. If 80 gives way as support - I would have to change my thinking. I believe we are heading to 85 in the short-term, and a pullback will happen from there as well. Although it has been somewhat parabolic, when you look at the longer term charts such as the monthly - this move is but a blip on the chart.....
Hey Chris,

I don't trade your methodology, but I do trade trends with a swing type system.

I notice you said you add "small bits" to areas of value, ....

Maximum exposure for a pair to me would be 2%, I would enter with 1% on the first initial entry, then if the pair sets up again during the shelf life of the first trade I would enter again with 0.5% size, I would do this once more if it sets up again,
I would treat all three trades independently .

I wouldn't expose more than 6% of my equity to all trades on all pairs at any one time.

What would be your max exposure % to say the JPY trade, would
the environment dictate the amount of entry's ?

Thanks Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #13,604
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:30pm Mar 14, 2012 5:30pm
Anyone still willing to test their luck with this pair?

400 point target based on breakout in either direction on this triangle.

Long gets us back to original consolidation breakout area of 1.30.

Short gets us back to previous lows of 1.21 zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR AUD TRIANGLE.PNG Size: 44 KB
  • #13,605
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:59pm Mar 14, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting j4d
Hey Chris,

I don't trade your methodology, but I do trade trends with a swing type system.

I notice you said you add "small bits" to areas of value, ....

Maximum exposure for a pair to me would be 2%, I would enter with 1% on the first initial entry, then if the pair sets up again during the shelf life of the first trade I would enter again with 0.5% size, I would do this once more if it sets up again,
I would treat all three trades independently .

I wouldn't expose more than 6% of my equity to all trades on all pairs at any one time.

What...
I am adding 10% of the original position on signs of support......the limit? Unknown, as the account will grow right along with it...
  • #13,606
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:00pm Mar 14, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting uBERpIP
Anyone still willing to test their luck with this pair?

400 point target based on breakout in either direction on this triangle.

Long gets us back to original consolidation breakout area of 1.30.

Short gets us back to previous lows of 1.21 zone.

1.30 catches my eye, on bearish price action that is.
  • #13,607
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:57pm Mar 14, 2012 8:57pm
Quoting mypipbull
I decided today to place a buy stop (above previous weeks high) on EUR/CHF with stop below the SNB floor. Although this trade is EUR positive I am gonna put faith in the SNB in the mean time......if nothing else at least its a small carry trade also......I just suspect that one morning I will wake up and look at the charts and see that the SNB has intervened to the tune of say........1000+ pips like last time?.....that would put you in rapid profit for a while at least....as a bonus you can collect a bit of interest on the side as well......
After getting filled on the 8th Feb and being below the water line for over a month now (while collecting a small swap) looks like someone else decided to pile in long. Two days of larger than average buying on this pair (not the 1000 pip bar yet )......interesting....is it going north? Not sure.....Was just nice to see a position you have had open for a month finally turn green.
Anyone else long this pair?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-15-EURCHF_D.png Size: 23 KB
  • #13,608
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:59pm Mar 14, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting mypipbull
After getting filled on the 8th Feb and being below the water line for over a month now (while collecting a small swap) looks like someone else decided to pile in long. Two days of larger than average buying on this pair (not the 1000 pip bar yet )......interesting....is it going north? Not sure.....Was just nice to see a position you have had open for a month finally turn green.
Anyone else long this pair?
I was previously, but only took a minute amount of profit.......sooner or later this will be a golden trade.......but I think we chop around for a while first.
  • #13,609
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:33pm Mar 16, 2012 9:33pm
I'm thinking it's time to add on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,610
  • Edited 5:45am Mar 17, 2012 5:33am | Edited 5:45am
Quoting clockwork71
The BoJ is also buying government bonds. This is printing money en masse.
i love how the final point is in my view 95% the most important point
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #13,611
  • Mar 17, 2012 5:42am Mar 17, 2012 5:42am
just read the latest article on the site on Volume. The phrase 'demography is destiny' seems most apt...

Id imagine with the growth of HFT that markets are far less retail, and due to the gfc, far less gambling money on main street. However i cant imagine HFT volume to be getting smaller, I think the decline in other 'traders'/investors volume is just so large that HFT hasnt picked up the slack... yet

im not the that well read on HFT but i can imagine they are very 'fat in the tail' in the methods that they use, systematic risk is only gonna get larger with its predominance in volume imo... fragility is the word
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #13,612
  • Mar 17, 2012 7:50am Mar 17, 2012 7:50am
Quoting 4xWheels
I'm thinking it's time to add on.
Yeah, the Aussie looks rather healthy at the moment........on my radar as well.
  • #13,613
  • Mar 17, 2012 7:52am Mar 17, 2012 7:52am
Quoting whitegoodman
i love how the final point is in my view 95% the most important point
White! How are you mate? I think the Yen has much farther to fall against the major currencies, and as you are undoubtedly aware.....the BoJ and Japanese exporters are just fine with that. The Yen isn't a currency that Bernanke seems to worry about much, so he won't try to hold it up either......


I am looking at a move for months, if not years.

Good to see ya.
  • #13,614
  • Mar 17, 2012 7:57am Mar 17, 2012 7:57am
Quoting clockwork71
White! How are you mate? I think the Yen has much farther to fall against the major currencies, and as you are undoubtedly aware.....the BoJ and Japanese exporters are just fine with that. The Yen isn't a currency that Bernanke seems to worry about much, so he won't try to hold it up either......


I am looking at a move for months, if not years.

Good to see ya.
yeh all good this side of the pond jsut working and studying full time (masters of economics), also been trading a fair bit, no forex, all stocks and etf's atm, been chugging along quite well...

hows the performance of everyones trading going here?
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #13,615
  • Mar 19, 2012 9:48pm Mar 19, 2012 9:48pm
Looks like it is almost time to add to the position. I am going to add 10% of the original position once we break above the top of the hammer......somewhere near 83.60 or so.
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  • #13,616
  • Mar 21, 2012 8:52pm Mar 21, 2012 8:52pm
I am watching the same level.......83, to tell me what to do next. Currently, I think the hammer bodes well for a consolidation move. I don't know what kind of pullback we will get. If we do, I will simply add at lower prices.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,617
  • Mar 22, 2012 11:44am Mar 22, 2012 11:44am
Long AUD/USD @ 1.03709......based off of a 4 hour hammer. The 1.04 level is actually about 100 or so pips thick in my opinion. We will see.......small position, but the ascending triangle that broke out at 1.04 or so told us that 1.12 was in the cards........hope it didn't lie! Since this is with the trend, if it works, I will add.......if not, the loss shouldn't be too great.

Chris
  • #13,618
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:19pm Mar 22, 2012 7:19pm
So far so good......
  • #13,619
  • Mar 22, 2012 8:06pm Mar 22, 2012 8:06pm
audusd Daily doesnt show any bullish formation or signal.
  • #13,620
  • Mar 22, 2012 11:56pm Mar 22, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting nikim
audusd Daily doesnt show any bullish formation or signal.
Sure......but......its called buying strength after weakness in an uptrend.
Its a nice hammer at a 'nice area'.....that is Chris's MO here....

You simply cannot knock a 'with trend' entry especially in very well performing pair over recent months/years.

Personally I do not want to be long the AUD at the moment.....on the Daily I see Lower Highs and Lower Lows....I feel the AUD in general is due for a bit of an unwinde. We may have reached the 'until it bends' moment....I am looking to sell a rally as I feel a short/medium term top is in........but.....

....Chris is a smart guy......he knows what he's doing.....his risk is contained.....and....this is his thread
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