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  • #13,421
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:13am Jan 31, 2012 8:13am
Quoting Venice
Yep. Just a slow drift down. you know how the markets are though, they love to challenge the power houses.

This should be interesting though, the Yuen is once again approaching intervention levels as well.

Seems to be like a battle of big banks may take place. I bet this will be drug right down to 1.20 though. The markets want to see if the SNB will make good on their floor or not.
I don't think they have a choice quite frankly.
  • #13,422
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:19pm Jan 31, 2012 12:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't think they have a choice quite frankly.
And if the euro starts disintegrating they won't have anywhere near enough muscle to defend their line in the sand.

Just a thought on Aussie - don't you think if Europe goes back into recession, China grinds to a halt like it is starting to show signs of and the US keeps struggling, the Aussie as a commodity and export driven currency will suffer quite badly? If nobody's buying their goods...

Personally I think the world is headed into the double dip as we speak and most likely safe haven currencies will gain at the expense of AUD and my own dear SEK.

But that's just a Swedish dentist speculating
  • #13,423
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:38pm Jan 31, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting o990l6mh
And if the euro starts disintegrating they won't have anywhere near enough muscle to defend their line in the sand.

Just a thought on Aussie - don't you think if Europe goes back into recession, China grinds to a halt like it is starting to show signs of and the US keeps struggling, the Aussie as a commodity and export driven currency will suffer quite badly? If nobody's buying their goods...

Personally I think the world is headed into the double dip as we speak and most likely safe haven currencies will gain at the expense of AUD and my own dear...
I would normally agree, but the US seems to be plodding along. The Chinese are going to start pumping liquidity into the system, and the ECB/BoE/Fed are all going into QE mode. This will devalue currencies, and push up demand for "things", especially gold.....and as the bond yields are so low in places where people will actually invest - the swap is another way to "earn interest".

Plus there is a large triangle that was broken above the 1.04 level measuring up to 1.12 or so.

Although I do agree we could be seeing rougher times, it seems like the markets just don't give a shit about that.......makes no sense, but it is what it is.

Of course, I could be wrong......

As for EUR/CHF, I think it is a trade - not an investment. The EUR would have to completely come undone for them to lose that battle in the short term.
  • #13,424
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:32pm Jan 31, 2012 6:32pm
I decided today to place a buy stop (above previous weeks high) on EUR/CHF with stop below the SNB floor. Although this trade is EUR positive I am gonna put faith in the SNB in the mean time......if nothing else at least its a small carry trade also......I just suspect that one morning I will wake up and look at the charts and see that the SNB has intervened to the tune of say........1000+ pips like last time?.....that would put you in rapid profit for a while at least....as a bonus you can collect a bit of interest on the side as well......
  • #13,425
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:40pm Jan 31, 2012 7:40pm
New video on the blog...
  • #13,426
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:41pm Jan 31, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting mypipbull
I decided today to place a buy stop (above previous weeks high) on EUR/CHF with stop below the SNB floor. Although this trade is EUR positive I am gonna put faith in the SNB in the mean time......if nothing else at least its a small carry trade also......I just suspect that one morning I will wake up and look at the charts and see that the SNB has intervened to the tune of say........1000+ pips like last time?.....that would put you in rapid profit for a while at least....as a bonus you can collect a bit of interest on the side as well......
Right there with you.....I put a stop in well below the floor, by about 100 pips.....figured it was worth a roll of the dice at this point.
  • #13,427
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:05pm Jan 31, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
Right there with you.....I put a stop in well below the floor, by about 100 pips.....figured it was worth a roll of the dice at this point.
same same...SL@ 11900
  • #13,428
  • Feb 1, 2012 9:29am Feb 1, 2012 9:29am
CHF/HUF

Looks like 240 is a huge spot. I will be watching......spread is about 23 pips, not too bad when the value of a pip is only $4.53 per full lot.

Should make a decisions soon......
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  • #13,429
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:03pm Feb 1, 2012 2:03pm
Does E/C ever actually move?!??
  • #13,430
  • Feb 1, 2012 5:01pm Feb 1, 2012 5:01pm
Heads up.....
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  • #13,431
  • Feb 1, 2012 5:02pm Feb 1, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting Venice
Does E/C ever actually move?!??
Judging by the chart above this post - it might finally start to. E/crosses are actually in a world of their own. None the less - I don't want to own the Euro at all.....
  • #13,432
  • Feb 1, 2012 11:42pm Feb 1, 2012 11:42pm
Quoting o990l6mh
And if the euro starts disintegrating they won't have anywhere near enough muscle to defend their line in the sand.

Just a thought on Aussie - don't you think if Europe goes back into recession, China grinds to a halt like it is starting to show signs of and the US keeps struggling, the Aussie as a commodity and export driven currency will suffer quite badly? If nobody's buying their goods...

Personally I think the world is headed into the double dip as we speak and most likely safe haven currencies will gain at the expense of AUD and my own dear...
I know what you mean about the Aussie - I'd love to short it but just can't pull the trigger at the moment. If, however there is more trouble in ME and ppl rush to the dollar - who knows?

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  • #13,433
  • Feb 1, 2012 11:46pm Feb 1, 2012 11:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
Judging by the chart above this post - it might finally start to. E/crosses are actually in a world of their own. None the less - I don't want to own the Euro at all.....
I'm with you there - I'd love to short it but I'm not gonna bet against the SNB. EC is a nogo for me
  • #13,434
  • Feb 2, 2012 6:37am Feb 2, 2012 6:37am
quick blog post.....
  • #13,435
  • Feb 2, 2012 8:21am Feb 2, 2012 8:21am
just thought i shuld post here.

Lovely name to this thread.
really good to know the insights put up on blogs.

i follow this thread and tweets with great interest.

this is the Oil trade i took today..

short @ 97.5
my TP set at 96.10

hope it hits.

(charts self explanatory)
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  • #13,436
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:49am Feb 2, 2012 9:49am
Quoting AvanishDemo
just thought i shuld post here.

Lovely name to this thread.
really good to know the insights put up on blogs.

i follow this thread and tweets with great interest.

this is the Oil trade i took today..

short @ 97.5
my TP set at 96.10

hope it hits.

(charts self explanatory)
Thanks for posting, and I like the trade. To be honest - if we get a bad Non-Farm Number....this could go lower. Oil is so overpriced at the moment anyway - the break of $98 was significant.....
  • #13,437
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:50am Feb 2, 2012 9:50am
I have CNBC on in the background.....

They just wont shut up about the Facebook IPO. This looks like an opportunity to short something in the future. The hype is so out of control, starting to look like 1999....
  • #13,438
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:58am Feb 2, 2012 10:58am
Quoting clockwork71
The hype is so out of control, starting to look like 1999....
Stop reading my mind!
  • #13,439
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:53pm Feb 2, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Stop reading my mind!
  • #13,440
  • Feb 3, 2012 6:10am Feb 3, 2012 6:10am
Short EUR/AUD again....
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