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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #303,421
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:36am Mar 13, 2012 11:36am
Quoting bguguen
Dude Monthly Chart says otherwise dude.... 1.64-1.65 would be expecting GBPUSD to break an all time downwards trend in the GBPUSD dude... in this current market condition i just dont see it happen....

Attachment

its already happened..watch and see
no way to know other than wait but everything so far has happened perfectly..except the fall last week but its responded in line with what i would expect....for this yesterday should be a bottom

lets see
  • #303,422
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:39am Mar 13, 2012 11:39am
Quoting smikester
Now let's see. There was an H4 PA candle with a 38.2 fib retracement to approximately 1.5630? Is that where you got in? I got in at 1.5646. Sorry for being inquisitive...
hello,
no i got in looking at m5 chart. i also posted entry where price found impossible to go more down yesterday after the strange up-down moves.
well, was whole day long i was looking to go long.
had also a bit of luck.
i did not expect so much up and fast move
  • #303,423
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:39am Mar 13, 2012 11:39am
Quoting bbakker
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post5470620

Clcik on the link to my weekly chart and 2012 is what I mean.
i see.. anyway, as i see it, we still have no higher high in weekly.. with that said, it's hard to swing a position based on that..

as i see it.. we might retest 46xx area in weekly which is the high of may 2010.. my point is, it's hard to formulate an outcome to the bullish side in weekly since we yet to have any sign of bullishness.. by the way, thanks for the chart mate.. good one
  • #303,424
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:40am Mar 13, 2012 11:40am
Quoting bbakker
What is the immediate trend on this chart... for me this is up. LL, HL!

Sure there are also LHs recently on the daily, but 5270 is well supported and it is looking more and more like a wedge to break to the north side!

Anway... this is weekend talk. Let's focus on price where it is right now.

I think it will sit around this level (1.5717-1.5749) until FOMC.... scalps are the order of the day until the news release.

Good luck folks, I am out of here!
You must be talking about this chart... Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdy1.gif Size: 15 KB

But according to the weekly... we already closed last week breaking below the Upwards trendline... in fact i just dont see how its gona go up from now... IF this week doesnt close back Above the broken Upwards trendline... this think tanks mate...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdw1.gif Size: 17 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,425
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:40am Mar 13, 2012 11:40am
unless you are trading off a daily or weekly trigger the monthly is somewhat irrelevant.

Looking at it (which I rarely do) it is ranging with a recent bearish biais. Some will see there is a triangle thingy/whatever going on and yeh - at some point one of the trend lines will give to the upside/downside...whether this event constitutes a solid reliable and sustained b/o though ? - the PA when it comes might give more clues too on the relevant t/f's.

If anyone else can say anything more sensible than that about this t/f - be my guess..how it points definatively to higher or lower future near-term prices as the greater probability I don't really know.

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #303,426
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:45am Mar 13, 2012 11:45am
sorry but i'm not a trendline guru.
but if i have to draw a line or die i would draw it like this

(...and die... lol, joking)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #303,427
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:45am Mar 13, 2012 11:45am
Quoting 0rPhioZ
This is the perfect setting for frying LONG position if they SHORT it after FOMC with massive volumes, first they hunt stops while in the process hunting many SHORT penetrating almost 3 resistance levels, now we will retest 5700 again as a support, I think we need to go past that level first before considering SHORT position.
why would they want to hunt our stops? what they do perhaps is closing short positions and retailers going long seeing the spike in the market, same as soros bankrupted the bank of England, i believe it's not his intention to do that, what he did is just because he sees the opportunity to go short..
  • #303,428
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:50am Mar 13, 2012 11:50am
Quoting bguguen
1.65?!?! how do you come to that??

The monthly chart sure suggests no way thats happening dude...
1.65 means you are expecting a break above an all time downwards trend?! in this market condition??
Attachment
Actuly higher , over 1.70 but when time come.
  • #303,429
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:53am Mar 13, 2012 11:53am
Quoting egkid
Actuly higher , over 1.70 but when time come.
yeah, i also believe it will get to 1.73 first when the time comes.. the keyword here is when the time comes..
  • #303,430
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:55am Mar 13, 2012 11:55am
Quoting egkid
Actuly higher , over 1.70 but when time come.

hi bro..
this is why u gotta love trading, sometimes we see things which are quite straight forward and yet others are almost blind..and vica versa
  • #303,431
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:55am Mar 13, 2012 11:55am
Quoting egkid
Actuly higher , over 1.70 but when time come.
When time comes huh... probably in 10 years time... lol with the way EU is going Parity seems possible with EURUSD... i would imagine GBPUSD would suffer the same falling fate of the EURO sooo 1.40 fair and square for the GBPUSD??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,432
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:56am Mar 13, 2012 11:56am
Quoting bbakker
You're obviously a break out trader and not a swing trader then

Millions of different ways to skin the same cat!
GBP has been quite funny these days, as you see we have a quite nice PA (Double High Lower Close) that I have marked there but we have seen this pair acting differently. Now this guy is retesting 5750 like crazy. If this level holds, we will probably see some punishment from sellers before considering LONG from the bottom. 5500 seems possible to act as a bottom. If 5750 doesn't hold I expect this pair to fly to 5830, retrace back to 5750-60 before going up.
Attached Image
  • #303,433
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:00pm Mar 13, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting scramble
hello,
no i got in looking at m5 chart. i also posted entry where price found impossible to go more down yesterday after the strange up-down moves.
well, was whole day long i was looking to go long.
had also a bit of luck.
i did not expect so much up and fast move
i mean that red area in the left of picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #303,434
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
hi bro..
this is why u gotta love trading, sometimes we see things which are quite straight forward and yet others are almost blind..and vica versa
True
Maybe u got more info about this can help me
I see GBP doing better than some other currencies
What the reasons I thought England in very very bad economy shape!
  • #303,435
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting bguguen
When time comes huh... probably in 10 years time... lol with the way EU is going Parity seems possible with EURUSD... i would imagine GBPUSD would suffer the same falling fate of the EURO sooo 1.40 fair and square for the GBPUSD??
leave it at that mate, it is when the time comes.. maybe in 5 years time, maybe 10 years time.. it doesn't matter.. if we see the candles indicate that there's already sign of bullishness in weekly/monthly it will get there..

at the moment, it has yet to print that it wants to go that way, and personally, i don't swing based on what it might be.. but i assure you, when the time comes, the PA tell you that it is the time already..

if you ask me, personally i will swing with the bears and perhaps i might have small scalp with the bulls..
  • #303,436
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm Mar 13, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting bguguen
You must be talking about this chart... Monthly
Attachment
But according to the weekly... we already closed last week breaking below the Upwards trendline... in fact i just dont see how its gona go up from now... IF this week doesnt close back Above the broken Upwards trendline... this think tanks mate...
Attachment
Your lower trendline cuts through your bar and is not on the low of the bar, hence you believe it has gone through this trendline, when in fact it hasn't. bbmac's chart is spot on with regards to the trendline, although he has added another trendline from the HL (dammit!), which personally I think is confusing. One trendline will do for me

If you also look at the GBP index chart provided by Navin, you can see GBP is bottoming out.

It will take months to play out, so let's focus on immediate price and where it is heading!
  • #303,437
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:02pm Mar 13, 2012 12:02pm
If others are determining that future near-term higher price will result - from the current monthly chart / tech analysis then they are see-ing things on that chart that are not there.

Now some may see a future near-term higher price in this pairing from fundie analysis but I challenge anyone to tell me how - from sound tech analysis on this monthly t/f how it points to a future higher price as the greater probability ?

Even the weekly is ranging [with a recent upside biais] and this week saw a L (at the current weekly Lo - although not a fractal swing) below the last fractal swing (the HL) shown on this weekly chart that was posted at the end of last week.

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wkly.jpg Size: 91 KB
ex member
  • #303,438
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:04pm Mar 13, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting egkid
True
Maybe u got more info about this can help me
I see GBP doing better than some other currencies
What the reasons I thought England in very very bad economy shape!
i dont have no clue man..i just listen to chart and play the formations..and try to stick to the plan ..i choose long..

its this simple..euro is doing very bad cable effected..oil and gold will rise..cable will fly with it..war also

to bet against gold, oil, war is like asking to be reborn again hence meh long

seriously.. i see gbp strength increasing as it perhaps bottomed out
  • #303,439
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:04pm Mar 13, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting bguguen
When time comes huh... probably in 10 years time... lol with the way EU is going Parity seems possible with EURUSD... i would imagine GBPUSD would suffer the same falling fate of the EURO sooo 1.40 fair and square for the GBPUSD??
EU is not going to parity! You really need to study the weekly/monthly charts in depth my friend! Also, if there is a flight from the Euro, where are people going to park their cash? Look at EURGBP chart!
  • #303,440
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:06pm Mar 13, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting A-speculator
why would they want to hunt our stops? what they do perhaps is closing short positions and retailers going long seeing the spike in the market, same as soros bankrupted the bank of England, i believe it's not his intention to do that, what he did is just because he sees the opportunity to go short..
What you say comes into my mind too, since we're alternating between BUY and SELL, open position LONG then SHORT when we tp or sl. What I think is important is the fact that we currently have a large amount of buy orders now.
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