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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #303,401
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:20am Mar 13, 2012 11:20am
Quoting bbakker
I didn't miss it
i wish i was in it too... ah well lets see what FOMC has to say... but generally ill be looking to load shorts... the move up for the past hour or so is very suspicious...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,402
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:20am Mar 13, 2012 11:20am
Quoting scramble
still not a short here.
will wait this m30 closing price
that's a wise decision mate.. no need to hurry things.. let the price/PA shows the way..

good one mate..
  • #303,403
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:21am Mar 13, 2012 11:21am
Quoting scramble
i think you are right!
also the other guy... "monsterpips"

We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,404
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:22am Mar 13, 2012 11:22am
Quoting GDR3k
Definitely, don't like the look of this, the gbp/jpy has broke through this months high aswell
Geppy: Might be a SFP! (Swing Failure Point). See how it closes today.

When I said it failed to get back to demand this was on m5.

I like egkids' entry. I have the low of 1.5784 on the 5th March. Daily shows a bearish engulfing and it is our first visit back. Price should be capped at 1.5835 and if it isn't, I will never look at a daily chart again... LOL.

I pulled my order for now and put it higher up. I have been doing this on GU lately and price never managed to reach my bloody orders...ffs!
  • #303,405
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:25am Mar 13, 2012 11:25am
Quoting bguguen
Whoa whoa whoa... im sorry to dispute this but as an economics major... i have to disagree with you buddy... Market moves because of Demand and Supply right? thats how price is made... Demand and Supply gives us an equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity right??
Part of the whole Free Market Economy anyways but you do realise... Demand can be easily manipulated if you have the money the more money you have the more you can manipulate the demand....
shifting the demand to the right eventually causing price to go up...

Sooo Big Boys and central...
ok bud..we will see..i say 1.65 regardless
I hear wht yur saying but i never follow the news and my results despite this stupid trade i have are actually very good..48 trades 45 successfull

so something is working or i have a gin with meh
  • #303,406
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:25am Mar 13, 2012 11:25am
Quoting bbakker
Geppy: Might be a SFP! (Swing Failure Point). See how it closes today.

When I said it failed to get back to demand this was on m5.

I like egkids' entry. I have the low of 1.5784 on the 5th March. Daily shows a bearish engulfing and it is our first visit back. Price should be capped at 1.5835 and if it isn't, I will never look at a daily chart again... LOL.

I pulled my order for now and put it higher up. I have been doing this on GU lately and price never managed to reach my bloody orders...ffs!
yeah, i agreed.. it reached my yesterday PO order but atm i not doing anything, partly because i was just stopped out of the market and partly i would like to see the momentum to the downside first before deciding on anything..

and i strongly agree that at about 5740 the maximum price for the retracement and if that price crossed, you know what that means, right?
  • #303,407
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:27am Mar 13, 2012 11:27am
this can help an open mind
Attached Image
  • #303,408
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:27am Mar 13, 2012 11:27am
4 fib cluster / Daily R2 / Weekly Pivot and underside of breeched previous 4hr/daily ascending trend line at/around the current Daily hi as price makes a strong move up and now a 4hr H above it's last 2 x LH's of it's downtrend.

Immediately above here per current near-term 4hr/1hr charts below with Daily R3 @/around 5780 too.

Immediately below current price per current near-term 1hr chart below

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 208 KB
ex member
  • #303,409
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:27am Mar 13, 2012 11:27am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok bud..we will see..i say 1.65 regardless
I hear wht yur saying but i never follow the news and my results despite this stupid trade i have are actually very good..48 trades 45 successfull

so something is working or i have a gin with meh
1.65?!?! how do you come to that??

The monthly chart sure suggests no way thats happening dude...
1.65 means you are expecting a break above an all time downwards trend?! in this market condition??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdy1.gif Size: 15 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,410
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:28am Mar 13, 2012 11:28am
Quoting nAVIN2007
ok bud..we will see..i say 1.65 regardless
I hear wht yur saying but i never follow the news and my results despite this stupid trade i have are actually very good..48 trades 45 successfull

so something is working or i have a gin with meh
Yes, yes, I agree, but not until the Summer 2012 as per my weekly chart you've seen!
  • #303,411
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:30am Mar 13, 2012 11:30am
Quoting bguguen
1.65?!?! how do you come to that??

i have posted a chart so many times ..its a long term one so it doesnt change..have a look..
any like i say..1.64-1.65 i have ..if im correct it may explode way past that to take stops at the moment i playing the floating game

Quoting bbakker
Yes, yes, I agree, but not until the Summer 2012 as per my weekly chart you've seen!
yes at least i figure potential 6 months..but im strong i think so far so good in terms of hanging in there
  • #303,412
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:30am Mar 13, 2012 11:30am
Quoting bbakker
Yes, yes, I agree, but not until the Summer 2012 as per my weekly chart you've seen!
i think you mean summer 2013.. right?
  • #303,413
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:30am Mar 13, 2012 11:30am
Quoting scramble
still not a short here.
will wait this m30 closing price
Now let's see. There was an H4 PA candle with a 38.2 fib retracement to approximately 1.5630? Is that where you got in? I got in at 1.5646. Sorry for being inquisitive...
Gone to a better place
  • #303,414
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:31am Mar 13, 2012 11:31am
Quoting A-speculator
i think you mean summer 2013.. right?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post5470620

Clcik on the link to my weekly chart and 2012 is what I mean.
  • #303,415
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:32am Mar 13, 2012 11:32am
Quoting bguguen
i wish i was in it too... ah well lets see what FOMC has to say... but generally ill be looking to load shorts... the move up for the past hour or so is very suspicious...
This is the perfect setting for frying LONG position if they SHORT it after FOMC with massive volumes, first they hunt stops while in the process hunting many SHORT penetrating almost 3 resistance levels, now we will retest 5700 again as a support, I think we need to go past that level first before considering SHORT position.
  • #303,416
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:32am Mar 13, 2012 11:32am
Quoting bguguen
1.65?!?! how do you come to that??

The monthly chart sure suggests no way thats happening dude...
1.65 means you are expecting a break above an all time downwards trend?! in this market condition??
Attachment
You forgot the other trendline, one of them has to break and my money is on the top one!
  • #303,417
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:32am Mar 13, 2012 11:32am
I think both Scramble and bguguen are right.

Sramble is right in the sense that the "big boys" do know more than us about the outcome of those economic numbers/news seeing they are the ones who put out those "consensus" or "forecast" numbers for those events. And when there is PA like today, that means they DO know something or at least they have a very strong conviction in what they believe in. IF they REALLY don't know anything, you will see PA before the events to be TOTALLY flat with Bollinger bands in super-tight squeeze of just 10 or 20 pips apart and then when the numbers/events get published, then PA takes off and Bollinger opens up.

However, surprises DO happen and they happen ALL the time. All those "big boys" have at best is educated guess, very good ones many times but still guesses and they do get it wrong. And when they are wrong, you get a sharp, huge spikes in the opposite direction, and we all know what happens. Profits get reversed and turn into losses in a matter of seconds. The problem is that those "big boys", when they get it wrong, they have the money (basically other people's money) to absorb it BUT when we lose, we are gone. We get a margin call and our accounts are blew. So bguguen is right that it's best to wait until the news/events is published and then take action. You lose some pips due to slippages but it's safer.

So me, after having so many pips wiped out because of surprise news, I now wait until the news and then take action.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #303,418
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:33am Mar 13, 2012 11:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i have posted a chart so many times ..its a long term one so it doesnt change..have a look..
any like i say..1.64-1.65 i have ..if im correct it may explode way past that to take stops at the moment i playing the floating game



yes at least
Dude Monthly Chart says otherwise dude.... 1.64-1.65 would be expecting GBPUSD to break an all time downwards trend in the GBPUSD dude... in this current market condition i just dont see it happen....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdy1.gif Size: 15 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,419
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:33am Mar 13, 2012 11:33am
Quoting 0rPhioZ
This is the perfect setting for frying LONG position if they SHORT it after FOMC with massive volumes, first they hunt stops while in the process hunting many SHORT penetrating almost 3 resistance levels, now we will retest 5700 again as a support, I think we need to go past that level first before considering SHORT position.
You're obviously a break out trader and not a swing trader then

Millions of different ways to skin the same cat!
  • #303,420
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:36am Mar 13, 2012 11:36am
Quoting bguguen
Dude Monthly Chart says otherwise dude.... 1.64-1.65 would be expecting GBPUSD to break an all time downwards trend in the GBPUSD dude... in this current market condition i just dont see it happen....

Attachment
What is the immediate trend on this chart... for me this is up. LL, HL!

Sure there are also LHs recently on the daily, but 5270 is well supported and it is looking more and more like a wedge to break to the north side!

Anway... this is weekend talk. Let's focus on price where it is right now.

I think it will sit around this level (1.5717-1.5749) until FOMC.... scalps are the order of the day until the news release.

Good luck folks, I am out of here!
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