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  • #1,201
  • Dec 18, 2011 6:53pm Dec 18, 2011 6:53pm
Entropy...check out the H&S pattern:
Left shoulder (May 15th ish)
Head (June 7th ish)
Right Shoulder (June 28th ish)

Excellent low risk entry @ the low of Left Shoulder with stops below the head...would have been a tasty trade (long) ;-)

Mongo

Quoting .Entropy
HEY, DANuk,

Given your technique, i am wondering if you enter short at 1.2245 area on the 17th of june. I have tried highlighting it in blue.

Or does this not fit with your criteria?
  • #1,202
  • Dec 18, 2011 7:14pm Dec 18, 2011 7:14pm
Hey there Gododdin...I'll give it a go.

Do you see where the market put in a BOTTOM (how do you know?), because price moved up off of and and then put in a retracement.

So how do we NOW know its a low? because price once it bounced off the bottom retraced only about 50% and did NOT take out the low...hence THAT bottom peak is the NEW swing low.

So WHERE does trend change? See where price put in it's low, then moved up, then retraced? as soon as price then took out that forst peak off the low or outside return (higher low), it proved that price wanted to go higher. From your diagram then, the other red lines where you're asking "here", are now resistance levels to watch out for.

Hope that helps

Mongo
Quoting gododdin
Hi Eric - you are right about Dan!

you raise some good points that I too struggle with. I've put together a quick diagram (using Paint so it's pretty rough!) and would be very grateful to have Dan's take on this.

Dan -you said in another post that you would be happy to discuss further the role that major S/R has in showing us where the trend is going to change. Would it be relevant to this?

Many thanks
  • #1,203
  • Dec 22, 2011 9:36pm Dec 22, 2011 9:36pm
Great thread you have going here Dan! Keeping things nice & simple which is very refreshing, and easy to follow. I'm only half way through this thread and looking forward to reading your previous threads.
  • #1,204
  • Dec 23, 2011 3:39am Dec 23, 2011 3:39am
Quoting majormongo
Hey there Gododdin...I'll give it a go.
Nice to have you in this thread, Majormongo. I'm sure you'll earn your stripes soon. Looking forward to you breathing some new life into this thread. Swings have been sluggish these past few months...looking forward to a better 2012.

NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,205
  • Dec 31, 2011 11:42am Dec 31, 2011 11:42am
Good evening ladies and gents,

I just wanted to drop by and say Happy New Year to everyone and good luck for 2012!

I haven't been hanging out at FF much lately as it has been a tough year for trend trading and I have focused all my spare time on keeping my eye on the charts without any distractions!

I must admit to also having a bit of a crisis of conscience this year. I think 2011 can be remembered as the year that the balance sheet recession we face has really started to hit the man on the street (at least that seems to be the case in the UK and many parts of Europe). And in seeing this, particularly damaging to the most vulnerable in society, I began to wonder whether my aspirations to be a trader are morally acceptable - given that it was the financial services industry that was mostly responsible for the damage that's been done over the last twenty or thirty years. To be honest I have yet to conclude on this - but for the time being I felt it was silly to stop trading... as it wasn't the small fish like us that blew the system apart - it was the big sharks.

So 2012 looks to be another crazy year but I see some good trades setting up and will be taking part... I shall also endeavor to take part a little more in this thread too.

Thank you for all the kind posts and messages I have received - if I haven't responded to you it is only because of how late I am in reading the messages!

Best wishes,

Dan
  • #1,206
  • Jan 1, 2012 3:53pm Jan 1, 2012 3:53pm
Quoting DanUK
Good evening ladies and gents,

I just wanted to drop by and say Happy New Year to everyone and good luck for 2012!

I haven't been hanging out at FF much lately as it has been a tough year for trend trading and I have focused all my spare time on keeping my eye on the charts without any distractions!

I must admit to also having a bit of a crisis of conscience this year. I think 2011 can be remembered as the year that the balance sheet recession we face has really started to hit the man on the street (at least that seems to be the case in the...
Nice to see you back dan I only use my own hard earend HONEST cash to trade with unlike the sharks have a happy conscience free year.
  • #1,207
  • Jan 2, 2012 1:12pm Jan 2, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting DanUK
Good evening ladies and gents,
I began to wonder whether my aspirations to be a trader are morally acceptable - given that it was the financial services industry that was mostly responsible for the damage that's been done over the last twenty or thirty years.
Nice thread. You can rest easy in the knowledge that the above is untrue.
  • #1,208
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:23am Jan 3, 2012 5:23am
Quoting Ted1983
Nice thread. You can rest easy in the knowledge that the above is untrue.
Thanks.

Please explain.
  • #1,209
  • Jan 3, 2012 5:24am Jan 3, 2012 5:24am
Quoting castlerock
Nice to see you back dan I only use my own hard earend HONEST cash to trade with unlike the sharks have a happy conscience free year.
  • #1,210
  • Jan 5, 2012 7:20pm Jan 5, 2012 7:20pm
Hey gang, here are (2) likely trades to keep on your radar. Both Daily "ratio" trade setups. How do I know? I don't but It's better to be predictive in ones analysis than in one's execution

I realize this is not a ratio room however price is price, patterns are patterns and harmonics are harmonics...guess what? they all work.

Here are my "predictive set ups"

Mongo
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd - daily gartley short.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad - daily bull gartley.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,211
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:18am Jan 6, 2012 4:18am
Quoting majormongo
Hey gang, here are (2) likely trades to keep on your radar. Both Daily "ratio" trade setups. How do I know? I don't but It's better to be predictive in ones analysis than in one's execution

I realize this is not a ratio room however price is price, patterns are patterns and harmonics are harmonics...guess what? they all work.

Here are my "predictive set ups"

Mongo
Hi MJM

I agree with both trades however I dont think we can hit the usdcad kill zone as getting there will turn the chart bearish imo. 1.0050 is hard support.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,212
  • Jan 7, 2012 5:54am Jan 7, 2012 5:54am
would like to go short around 50% fib retracement? attached picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 19 KB
Holy Grails! Do exist with a proper forex plan
  • #1,213
  • Jan 15, 2012 5:57am Jan 15, 2012 5:57am
Hi Dan, I think castlerock put it well in one sentence. We trade with our money and don't take risks with other peoples. The documentary inside job explains the crisis in great detail well worth the watch.

All the best for the new year to all the commanders troops
  • #1,214
  • Jan 29, 2012 7:11am Jan 29, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Olu
Hi MJM

I agree with both trades however I dont think we can hit the usdcad kill zone as getting there will turn the chart bearish imo. 1.0050 is hard support.

Hey there Olu - not perfect but darn close...both of these are setting up to reverse IMO - check the updated charts.

AUDUSD - had a very nice reversal (shooting star/pinbar)...the most recent candle has not taken out it's HIGH...still valid. Very low risk trade entry right now!

USDCAD - same story...last 2 days proce action, very bulling hammer/pinbars, long wicks...sign of support with prices projected higher.

~ Mongo
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd- daily bear gartley - follow up.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad - daily bull gartley - follow up.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #1,215
  • Feb 20, 2012 7:25pm Feb 20, 2012 7:25pm
Hi,

Just discovered this thread and have spent the past 3 days reading all the posts. Thanks so much Dan for all the time you've invested to help people learn from you.

I've been trading now for 3 years on demo and have finally gone live in 2012 with very strict money management. So far, I'm struggling a little as I keep finding conflicting views the market and timeframes.

Reading through this thread has enabled me to put things into perspective and to look at the market in a logical way. The main thing I believe I was missing is looking at the key S/R levels before placing a trade.

Dan, you mentioned that the daily timeframe at present is not giving you the right conditions and therefore you are looking at intraday trading. How is it going for you? Do you think the 4hr timeframe's offer good opportunities in the daily trend direction?

I've realised that intraday trading doesn't fit with my family commitments.

Hoping to see this thread come alive again in 2012.

  • #1,216
  • Feb 21, 2012 4:23am Feb 21, 2012 4:23am
GemBug,

You'll find that MOST Professional traders use the Daily TF and on occasion the 4HR (which is my preferred TF) and YES, it gives you opportunity over many pairs.

The reason you are not finding MANY opps is due to all this Global EU/Greece/Doom n Gloom pandamonium...once all this GREECE garbage is behind us (announced TODAY), you'll see things ramp up.

Keep your powder dry until you see A+++ trade setups

MM
  • #1,217
  • Feb 21, 2012 4:35am Feb 21, 2012 4:35am
Hi MM,

Thanks for your reply. I expect from your response that you are trading in accordance with Dan's strategy but using the 4hr timeframe (with the daily as trend direction)?
  • #1,218
  • Oct 20, 2012 2:18am Oct 20, 2012 2:18am
I'm sorry to revive an old thread but I just want to thank Dan for this thread. It has been very enlightening for a newbie like me.
  • #1,219
  • Oct 21, 2012 4:27pm Oct 21, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting majormongo
GemBug,

You'll find that MOST Professional traders use the Daily TF and on occasion the 4HR
How do you know that?
  • #1,220
  • Feb 27, 2014 1:04pm Feb 27, 2014 1:04pm
GOOD Stuff..................................
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