DanUK's Intraday Experiment

March 2011 Update

I started this journal last year with the question “can I trade intraday?” and I found the answer was “maybe” but I didn’t have the time to do it. Since then I have avoided intraday trading but my interest has been provoked recently by redsword11’s extremely useful thread “price is everything”. It is, I suppose a variation on Sam Sieden’s supply and demand trading and it really is very good.

Whilst I have enjoyed a reasonable amount of success on larger timeframes, trading with the trend, it has always been my goal to be able to do “supply and demand” trading. I read BillyRayValentine’s great thread “no brainer trades” and various Sam Sieden stuff on the web but it didn’t really come together for me until reading through redsword11’s thread.

I say come together… of course I am still very much a newbie when it comes to supply and demand trading and have much to learn. This week I started my first live trades using supply and demand levels and have experienced what I imagine is a brief period of beginners luck with 7 of 9 trades ending in profit (with the other 2 as losses). The first couple of trades I took I posted more or less live on redsword11’s thread but as I often work and trade at the same time I am not always able to post live and therefore decided to post my trades on my own journal, for my own record keeping, rather than clutter up redsword11’s thread with newbie trades that aren’t always helpful!

So I am asking the question again… can I trade intraday? This thread will be an open an honest journal including both winners and losers and is an attempt for me to move onto what I consider the next stage in my trading journey.

As with all of my threads I encourage others to participate with charts, trade setups and ideas etc but I must warn you that I am by no means an expert at trading this way and would not recommend anyone to follow my trades or to try and replicate them. To learn supply and demand trading I would recommend researching the stuff I mentioned above.

Trade Management

I am currently following the example set out on redsword11's thread... take two thirds of your position off at 1:1 and leave the remainder on until target is hit. Stop loss does not move to breakeven... once you have 2/3 off at 1:1 the trade either hits full target or comes back down and stops out the last 1/3 (either scenario ends with profit but gives the trade more room to breathe to achieve final target). I would note however, that there are times when supply/demand levels may not allow this to happen in which case I will be more proactive in the management of my positions.

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How this thread started back in June 2010...

Can I trade intraday?

Those who know me will know that I have had some success trading 4H and Daily charts; following a simple trend following strategy (trendlines, retracements etc).

But I have also had some success trading intraday so I've decided to start a new journal to log my intraday trades and discuss the method with a few other intraday players whilst keeping them separate from my long term trades thread/journal.

So here it goes...

It's a very simple strategy based on intraday pivot levels, psych levels/round numbers. I am looking to trade off of these levels using VSA and price action setups on the 15M chart.

I will be trading the London session and I do have a day job so I won't be posting trades to my journal instantly, I just don't have the capacity to do it - but I will try and post my trades at the very least at the end of the day and at lunchtime too if I get time.

At the moment I only trade GBP/USD, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY but there is no reason you couldn't follow this method on other pairs.

I tend to risk 2% per trade; and my stop loss is usually positioned at the opposite end of my setup bar/bars and position adjusted to represent 2% of my account. I will be using the pivot levels and psych levels as targets and will generally be aiming for a 1:2 or 1:3 (if there is enough room) Risk to Reward ratio. I will also be moving stops to BE when my trade is either at 1:1 R:R or at the first level support/resistance that opposes my trade.

If there is anyone else following similar setups you are all welcome to join in but I do ask that charts and explanations are posted rather than just a statement of what happened (sold xyz @ 123)!

Ok I think that's about it... if there are any questions I am always happy to help but I do have a life outside Forex so I may need time to reply!

Regards,

Dan

PS... for anyone who doesn't know me - I am not insane; the Dance Commander is a reference to one of my favourite bands!

Looking forward to following you!

All the best on your journey

I am going to open with my first trade of this week (which was taken yesterday):

Trade No 1 - EUR/JPY

Long off of S1 on the break of the pin bar (shown by the arrow). We had two high volume sells before the pin that made me consider the trade and used the pin that also had high volume as the trigger.

I moved my stop to BE slightly earlier than normal (although if I hadn't my normal trade rules would have gotten my stop to BE too) as price hit the 110.00 psych level.

Trade closed at BE.

Today's trade was EUR/JPY again.

The intraday trend was down, price retraced up to the 108.50 psych level and formed a nice little pin bar with a negative close which I sold the break of.

My TP was set at 108 for a +4% gain.

Thank you! Feel free to join in whenever you like.

Regards,

Dan

Hi Dan. Good thread.

I look forward to contribute. Me as well have limited time and try to manage trading durring work. Or the learnig of it. No matter how long it takes.

Will do. Need to get some knowledge first to keep the pace

Looking forward to getting upto speed

GBP/USD this morning... buying climax into the daily pivot level (bar number 1) which was followed by a negative close below the pivot and below the 1.5050 psych level (bar number 2).

My entry short was below bar number 2 and I decided to place my stop above bar number 1 to keep it out of the way. Could have placed it above the entry bar but I decided to play it safe for some reason.

Moved my stop to BE once the trade was at 1:1 (1.5018) and closed for +4% gain at 1.4993.

i have managed to look at charts only now so obviously no trades for me. however, below is a trade that i would have taken if i was around.

Hi Coolshades,

That would have been a nice trade... I missed that one too; would have been close to a 1:4 trade

Regards,

Dan

However GBP/USD has been kind to me today...

Nice little pin bar off of 1.5050 (and almost the day pivot); went short below, moved to BE at 1.5019 and then closed for a 4% gain at 1.4998.

I think I shall probably retire for the day now!

What was the reasoning for this trade, was it just the pin bar or did you see anything else in this chart?

Dan with this trade did you have the psych level marked already or did you mark it once the price retraced to it?
It looks very flexable the way you are trading the 15m which i love, let me just check i understand properly, you trade of Pivots and RN with PA or use volume of Pivots and RN, is that corrrect?

Guys how does this pin look for a setup of S2?

Hi Dan,

Firstly all the best with the new intraday trading and the journal.

With regards this trade when you look for a buying climax from what I know it's a bullish bar into a new high ground followed by a bearish bar, the bullish bar will likely close in the middle or towards the high of the bar. Do we not also expect high volume relative to the previous bars as well or is the fact that the better volume indicator is a red bar shows us that it is a buying climax?

Thanks

failure to close beneath the pivot for quite a few bars despite lot of attempts and then the long tailed pinnish bar, that thrust below pivot but ended up closing above pivot.

note: i didnt take this trade, but it jumped out at me. i didnt take any trade today. too busy with work.

commander's trade was also something that i was going to post about but he beat me to it. since commander's post, there is atleast one more 1:2 trade on cable. can anyone tell me what it is?

jeez - i am writing as if i am taking lot of trades. i am not. but spotting the setups is as important imho....

yes i would have taken this trade. i am just back from work meetings and loaded my charts. my only thing is that since price is declining all day, i would move to BE much quicker than the 1:1 move.

lj,

cant anser for dan, but for me a buying climax is what you described, high range price bars with price of the last climax bar closing near high or middle and next bar being a red bar.

in this particular trade, the buying climax were for me unconvincing, however i too would have taken the trade because price on the green bar closed below pivot, and next red bar was a very convincing bear bar closing below psych level.

.

Hi bez,

I have the levels plotted by an indicator so they are always on.

You are right... I am looking for PA or Volume based setups at these levels; if they are inline with the intraday trend that is good, if not it has to be a very good looking setup and I will be cautious about the trade.

I normally look for a return of 1:2 or 1:3 if there is enough space.

I think it's a reasonable setup... especially as you have the confluence of trading off of S2 and 1.4950 - the only thing is you are trading against the intraday trend so you have got to be a little careful. If it were me I would probably have moved my stop to BE once we were close to a 1:1 trade (which would have been about 1.4990, which my feed missed by two pips).

Of course... things do not go to plan all of the time!

Regards,

Dan