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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #299,421
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:16am Jan 29, 2012 6:16am
Quoting gsantri
Large traders net position as of 01/24/12 (CFTC report 01/27/12).

Pound: SHORT 31,361 contracts
Euro. : SHORT 171,347
Aussie: LONG 69,486
Dollar : LONG 46,923


From COT charts below it seems still too early to say that medium/long-term trend of the Euro has been reversed.

Or perhaps the 'large traders that keep adding euro's short (usd's long) positions for the last 2 weeks are those that are within 95% ?

Well.. whatever will happen next week against the euro is certainly more or less will affect the other currencies
.
is cftc report can be use.....?
since i remember last week they said euro short postion is high also..hehehe

but euro still surge
Bismillah
  • #299,422
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:34am Jan 29, 2012 6:34am
Quoting krunfx
is cftc report can be use.....?

uhm.. it just the other 'building of that chazz's picture posted..

but with no 'U for UBS
  • #299,423
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:38am Jan 29, 2012 6:38am
Quoting gsantri
uhm.. it just the other 'building of that chazz's picture posted..

but with no 'U for UBS
ohh ok...hehe
Bismillah
  • #299,424
  • Jan 29, 2012 7:06am Jan 29, 2012 7:06am
In the weekly chart, GBP/USD bounced on the lower line of symmetrical triangle and strong support zone (1.52358-1.53439). Based on the chart pattern, GBP/USD probably will head to around 1.65. However, there are a lot of resistance levels to break. For instance, 1.6 (round number), 1.57679-1.57789 (resistance zone), 200SMA and 1.61291-1.61647 (resistance zone). I think that the journey to 1.65 will not be smooth.



http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=380
  • #299,425
  • Jan 29, 2012 8:44am Jan 29, 2012 8:44am
I think that events in Europe, and, indeed, the Middle East, in the next few weeks will determine the direction of Cable. Accordingly, I will trade with caution in order to avoid any surprises.

I would add that Cable has experienced a nice run up to the end of last week, and is somewhat timely, perhaps, given the expected unfurling of events to come.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #299,426
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:15am Jan 29, 2012 9:15am
A few observations on UC.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #299,427
  • Jan 29, 2012 9:38am Jan 29, 2012 9:38am
Juggling my charts for EU a little... I guess with the troubles both in Europe and the Middle East, I am trying to see a bigger picture.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #299,428
  • Jan 29, 2012 11:45am Jan 29, 2012 11:45am
hello all
busy sunday out.
just came in to read something....


well, i think there is nothing to do and to think about greek problem in EU.
this is because greek problem is the first, then will be another one etc....

europe will have problems until we will have a united governement.
so nearly always i would add.

no reasons to think about what could be the reaction in markets if greek default. let it to default, assuming that it will, then see what market decide. trying to pick an immediate impulsive reaction at a fact, is the worst thing that a trader can do, and could burn money very easy.

we are not professional trader, so we don't know all deep correlations changing after a release, and we have not immediate access to all things that a news can impact in that moment.

a big event like an european state default..... will surely move heavy the market. so: once there is a clear direction everybody can get it also my cat is able to see a chart and say me if that price is going up or down.

trying to understand IF an event will happen, and so WHAT could be the reaction...... is the biggest waste of time ever!

just my 2 cents
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,429
  • Jan 29, 2012 11:56am Jan 29, 2012 11:56am
Sell GBPUSD on signs on weakness at 5700-800 levels. Stop Loss 5850. Take profit few hundred pips.
  • #299,430
  • Jan 29, 2012 11:58am Jan 29, 2012 11:58am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
busy sunday out.
just came in to read something....
trying to understand IF an event will happen, and so WHAT could be the reaction...... is the biggest waste of time ever!

just my 2 cents
Hi BB. I agree with you wholeheartedly, it's a European problem and only a central fiscal government will sort it out. And it will sort itself out in due course. At the moment it seems to be taking attention away from the US debt problem. And we can do without this American berk sticking the knife in. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=339231

Good trading to you, BB.
Gone to a better place
  • #299,431
  • Jan 29, 2012 12:51pm Jan 29, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting fontu
Morning , happy weekend . yesterday checked gu chart & analysis as per I remember .

Continued bull crazy for last 10 days without almost any correction . bull set up at top still and even tried break up /bull continuation at daily resistance , weekly 100 sma close to close at last .that is untill otherwise prove like bo at 5727 , bo at 5715 as low as 5713 or bo at 5640 with confirmation 5628 with full correction down of the last leg up till 5233 bull intact .

so bull may continue at as high as 5727,5715/13 immediately , above 5640 or 28 next...
Dialogue gu weekly tf chart & follow through daily . top to bottom still bear & bear continuation set up with increased ranging presently around ltl just . to follow the ranging bull in it next levels failure previously is near 5773 & next limit for bear 5875 to next failure level 6068/6163 . so watching when it fail again & still not when win next .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #299,432
  • Jan 29, 2012 12:58pm Jan 29, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting fontu
Dialogue gu weekly tf chart & follow through daily .
fontu
Hey fontu thanks for the charts and your weekly is essentially an ascending triangle so what makes you think it will break down? Sorry if I missed something obvious.

Regards..
Gone to a better place
  • #299,433
  • Edited Jan 30, 2012 1:42am Jan 29, 2012 1:18pm | Edited Jan 30, 2012 1:42am
Quoting smikester
Hey fontu thanks for the charts and your weekly is essentially an ascending triangle so what makes you think it will break down? Sorry if I missed something obvious.

Regards..
Thanks , just classical/typical/simple price action in weekly & daily tf .
dialogue on the chart again .

So leaving for the day , internet connection horrible today . will see next morning if gu bull win or not ,the first & lowest easy challenge level 5773.hope not before next Frankie /London boy's do it desperately .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #299,434
  • Jan 29, 2012 1:49pm Jan 29, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
busy sunday out.
just came in to read something....


well, i think there is nothing to do and to think about greek problem in EU.
this is because greek problem is the first, then will be another one etc....

europe will have problems until we will have a united governement.
so nearly always i would add.

no reasons to think about what could be the reaction in markets if greek default. let it to default, assuming that it will, then see what market decide. trying to pick an immediate impulsive reaction at a fact, is the worst...
Hi BB

I am not sure that I agree with your views on this one.

It is the economic fundamentals that move the markets. Therefore without understanding the wider picture and apply that knowledge to charting, it will be difficult to be successful in trading in the long term. This is why banks/large corporates hire highly intelligent people with economic degrees rather than just traders.

Just take an example, if you are working in the treasury department of Apple inc. what will you be doing? Apple generates billions of income from the Euro area but it is based in the USA. It is listed on NASDAQ and has to report its earnings on a quarterly basis in USD. In order to protect its dollar based earnings, it has to cover the exchange rate or face severe volatility during times of economic instability which is not good for its stock price. If you are the corporate treasurer, it is your job to plan and cover the eventualities of major events that would affect Apple's earnings such as a Greek default. If his/her analysis shows that in the event of a default, EURUSD will tank, he/she will be hedging to protect the company. These large corporates' behaviour impact the prices we see daily on the charts because of the size of the orders. I understand from the recent COT reports that corporates are buying EU i-e long which has driven the prices higher in the last two weeks.

In my opinion, just relying on charts to trade is like trying to drive a car using the "rear view" mirror only. No doubt that the rear view mirror is important for driving but one also has to look ahead as well to get to our destination safely.

G/L

PS: As for having a united European government, it is big no no for me. Centralised structures cause a lot of inefficiency and leads to sub optimal decisions. Look what happened to the USSR. What Europe needs is less government not big ones. Cheers.
  • #299,435
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:59pm Jan 29, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting Rasi
Hi BB

I am not sure that I agree with your views on this one.

It is the economic fundamentals that move the markets. Therefore without understanding the wider picture and apply that knowledge to charting, it will be difficult to be successful in trading in the long term. This is why banks/large corporates hire highly intelligent people with economic degrees rather than just traders.

Just take an example, if you are working in the treasury department of Apple inc. what will you be doing? Apple generates billions of income from the Euro area...
hello,
yes u are saying exactly what i was meaning: since we are not working at nasdaq or NYME or NYSE etc..etc... (at least not me, and i think if here there is a Very Professional trader, i haven't seen yet) and we not need to predict a move before a news to hedge our 'heavy' positions! i think is better trade what is market doing after the fact, mostly if the fact is huge!!
well, ok a chat about fundamentals is good, and is good to know if fundamentals say up or down etc... but not more! what i was meaning is that i apply this to every news appearing in weekly calendar! i dont trade the release, and also i dont predict the move!

for example about the rumored EURO (one of reasons which im unable to understand if it has a real trend or not): will it go up? will greece default? will market react up or down? if you ask same question 10 times you will receive 10 different answers!
everything is possible!
going short (orlong) now assuming that greece will default and mostly without understanding what will be the reaction in markets that day, is same like launch money down in a river.

IMO, what we seriously should do is to listen and keep ears clear on radios and tv to understand if something is really happening, just to close positions and wait!
because i really think that there will not only a move: market could be for some seconds or even minutes without liquidity due to heavy closings shorts long hedge etc....and prices (most EU) will jump up-down at least 300 pips fast and stop orders will not be executed until your account is burnt!

just my idea...
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,436
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:30pm Jan 29, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting smikester
Hi BB. I agree with you wholeheartedly, it's a European problem and only a central fiscal government will sort it out. And it will sort itself out in due course. At the moment it seems to be taking attention away from the US debt problem. And we can do without this American berk sticking the knife in. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=339231

Good trading to you, BB.

hello,
yes matter is what could be the real cost of a central fiscal government?
and here comes the reason why i hope to be able to leave italy and EU lands this year within july ore so...i hope to be wrong, but the whole thing smells too much for what i like!

better focus on today and tomorrow. next week is far

good trading you too
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,437
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:35pm Jan 29, 2012 6:35pm
downtrend will continue on GU throughout the night and will reach 665-680 by 8AM GMT. Strong sell signal > 1 minute chart 50 MA crossed below 200 MA.
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  • #299,438
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:42pm Jan 29, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting mintfx
downtrend will continue on GU throughout the night and will reach 665-680 by 8AM GMT. Strong sell signal > 1 minute chart 50 MA crossed below 200 MA.

I agree with the short....but you saying STRONG signal on the 1 min chart......well.....there are no strong signals on the one minute chart that can ever take us in one direction all the way to 8am.....
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #299,439
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:48pm Jan 29, 2012 6:48pm
Yes you are right that the trend on the 1 minute chart cannot determine the trend for the next few hours.

But from now until 8am the market will be generally quite, and the price action will just go with the flow which is the current price action I have illustrated.

There is no fundamental news to shift it in direction, and the market is very quite now, so it will just start drifting down.
  • #299,440
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:51pm Jan 29, 2012 6:51pm
This is my current position....you can see that I am short CABLE at 19:38 EST from price of 1.5711 - futures price...which is equal to 1.5719 ish on forex price.....if you don't know me...I only trade futures so pricing is always a little different.....


I will post a chart etc later....I am just tooo tired......did too much this weekend with the kids etc......

Cheers...

Faller.
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
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