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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #299,401
  • Jan 29, 2012 3:17am Jan 29, 2012 3:17am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I hadn't actually seen the weekly 100sma Fontu. 2 strong bullish weekly candles, and I haven't seen pa reflecting a sell biase these last 2 weeks since coming off the 50 retrace. The 1hr TL just keeps getting steeper but may slow down this week. Looking to short off the 200ema off 58ish but not long term, still bullish overall
yes, bullish overal but 50 % fib always mean for mofu & if a leg down before up ok perfect with some more time passs around.
lets see what .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #299,402
  • Jan 29, 2012 3:32am Jan 29, 2012 3:32am
Quoting Ill-b-back
These last 2 weeks have put the final nail in the coffin for any respect I had for the news. It's all hogwash, bullcrap, and should be given the financial finger. I'm not even going to take a fleeting interest in it anymore. Euro rallies on yet more sovereign downgrades???? Give it to 'em dry I reckon.
I guess it is a case of "sell the rumour and buy the fact", I'm afraid.

Seriously though, the downgrades have been factored into the price for some time. The three main rating agencies were taking turns to publish their findings and one shouldn't expect price to react adversely. The rating agencies did not say anything people did not know already. Every man and his dog living in Europe knows the troubles the region face. The downgrades would have caused a ripple if say one of the agencies downgraded Germany.

Talking about Germany, I do not think it is advisable for it to take over the running of Greece. If I am a Greek, I would rather default on the debt repayments than let the Germans take over the finance ministry. The current mess is partly caused by Germany breaking the Masstricht rules to overcome the economic problems it was facing a few years back. It was also the fault of the Germans and others who approved the entry of Greece into Euro knowing full well how the numbers did not stackup (or massaged).

Right now what Europe needs is policies for economic growth, which would give it a chance to repay the debt. Instead Germany is preaching austerity which is causing more unemployment (there is ~ 25% youth unemployment in Spain) and misery to the ordinary population, which leads to less government income and lower the ability to repay the debt. Obviously there are areas in which spending got to stop and austerity is desirable.

Obviously, my 2 pence worth .

G/L
  • #299,403
  • Jan 29, 2012 3:50am Jan 29, 2012 3:50am
But what happens if Greece defaults, what are the implications within and outside of Europe?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #299,404
  • Edited 4:40am Jan 29, 2012 4:31am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting Ill-b-back
But what happens if Greece defaults, what are the implications within and outside of Europe?
Well, it will be very difficult for the people of Greece as they will have no currency (it takes times to design and print a new currency - lets say the new Drachma), however they will be better off in the long term. The fact remains though that a country could not be bankrupted (i-e the bankers cannot go in and takeover parts of Greece like in a personal/corporate bankruptcy). There will be chaos as nobody would want to sell or buy from Greece unless otherwise in a barter situation.

There are lessons that can be learnt from the default of Iceland and the aftermath. Please see a link below:

http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland...not/1322327303

As I said earlier in my previous post, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) should not have been allowed into the Euro in the first place as they were simply not ready economically and in sync with the likes of Germany and Netherlands. Trying to put a sticky plaster on Greece will only aggravate the situation. Not many people have noticed but Portugal is fast approaching the state Greece is in at present. I think the article in the Telegraph illustrates my points much better.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ing-trick.html

KR
  • #299,405
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:54am Jan 29, 2012 4:54am
Quoting Ill-b-back
These last 2 weeks have put the final nail in the coffin for any respect I had for the news. It's all hogwash, bullcrap, and should be given the financial finger. I'm not even going to take a fleeting interest in it anymore. Euro rallies on yet more sovereign downgrades???? Give it to 'em dry I reckon.
NewsTrading :

1. Time of release
2. Type of release
3. PA watch

Ignore everything else
  • #299,406
  • Jan 29, 2012 4:56am Jan 29, 2012 4:56am
Quoting chazzle
NewsTrading :

1. Time of release
2. Type of release
3. PA watch

Ignore everything else
ok...very confident
Bismillah
  • #299,407
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:05am Jan 29, 2012 5:05am
Quoting krunfx
ok...very confident


You want to guess where price is supposed to go immediately after a release?

Good luck.

These guys get the information quicker than you do , have the technological edge to react to it better than you do and the market share to actually push the price to where they want it to go - just follow , don't fight the market ...
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  • #299,408
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:10am Jan 29, 2012 5:10am
Quoting chazzle


You want to guess where price is supposed to go immediately after a release?

Good luck.

These guys get the information quicker than you do , have the technological edge to react to it better than you do and the market share to actually push the price to where they want it to go - just follow , don't fight the market ...
u mean all these traders at the picture?
Bismillah
  • #299,409
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:13am Jan 29, 2012 5:13am
Quoting krunfx
u mean all these traders at the picture?
Yes , plus all the analysts and quants that you can't see also
  • #299,410
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:15am Jan 29, 2012 5:15am
Quoting chazzle
Yes , plus all the analysts and quants that you can't see also
except this guy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15382342
  • #299,411
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:16am Jan 29, 2012 5:16am
I don't news trade at all, it's just not practical in Australia. I just trade TL's and pay attention to fibs and some MA's. I don't even see the NY session unfortunately
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #299,412
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:18am Jan 29, 2012 5:18am
Quoting chazzle
Yes , plus all the analysts and quants that you can't see also
i know that..... ..hehehe... but thats why when i trade the news i use non directional bias view....

but only certain news that is interesting only.... not all....

intersting like inflation report,mpc or boe statement..... some sort like that...

and i think the very dangerous red impact news is the CPI news...ahahhha...very2 dangerous to trade the cpi...
Bismillah
  • #299,413
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:28am Jan 29, 2012 5:28am
Tech. analysis / fund. analysis / news - whatever - none of it is mutually exclusive .

When I do tech. analysis on a price chart , say over the past 6 months , 3 months , 3 days or whatever - there is news all over it
  • #299,414
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:30am Jan 29, 2012 5:30am
Quoting chazzle
Tech. analysis / fund. analysis / news - whatever - none of it is mutually exclusive .

When I do tech. analysis on a price chart , say over the past 6 months , 3 months , 3 days or whatever - there is news all over it
yes....

we need to combine it to make our trade more n more interesting ..ehehehe
Bismillah
  • #299,415
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:37am Jan 29, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Rasi
Well, it will be very difficult for the people of Greece as they will have no currency (it takes times to design and print a new currency - lets say the new Drachma), however they will be better off in the long term. The fact remains though that a country could not be bankrupted (i-e the bankers cannot go in and takeover parts of Greece like in a personal/corporate bankruptcy). There will be chaos as nobody would want to sell or buy from Greece unless otherwise in a barter situation.

There are lessons that can be learnt from the default of Iceland...
Thank you very much for this, the truth on Iceland was very interesting. It's funny how it was not big on the news would not want to inspire others of course. Different story in the Middle East of course, but that is a different matter. Thank you again. Will read the Telegraph in the morning, off to bed.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #299,416
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:44am Jan 29, 2012 5:44am
Quoting Ill-b-back
But what happens if Greece defaults, what are the implications within and outside of Europe?
Busy cooking, but may knock some thoughts up a little later.

As Chazzle notes, you cannot fight the direction that big money wants to go, and they use news releases as timings for executions that have been placed in situ far before the release as they, normally, know what said release will be; unlike us retailers. In addition to this, and as Chazzle again notes, it is very difficult for any of us, sat in isolation at a PC to have the same access, and resource, to outwit the big money houses.

I never trade the news - unless of course my longer-term trades are running - and will normally wait 15 minutes or so and then observe PA.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #299,417
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:45am Jan 29, 2012 5:45am
Quoting bumapatria
ive never seen fundamental analysis practiced into "what i see as succsesfull. the fundamentals of what the order flow traders are actually quite amazing with a different thought to it and mindset.


trading the news is just half the story i think.


just felt i could join in on the usual tech and fundie thing.

im a techie - but slowly learning economics and what really drives price to move (orders) and what causes order to flow. not easy but ... nothing is easy today is i t?
yes buma...fundies give different story everyday..hahaha
Bismillah
  • #299,418
  • Jan 29, 2012 5:46am Jan 29, 2012 5:46am
Quoting 45Condor
Busy cooking, but may knock some thoughts up a little later.

As Chazzle notes, you cannot fight the direction that big money wants to go, and they use news releases as timings for executions that have been placed in situ far before the release as they, normally, know what said release will be; unlike us retailers. In addition to this, and as Chazzle again notes, it is very difficult for any of us, sat in isolation at a PC to have the same access, and resource, to outwit the big money houses.

I never trade the news - unless of course my longer-term...
yes agree...neeed to make the traders digest it first at least 15min and then just see the PA after that...
Bismillah
  • #299,419
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:00am Jan 29, 2012 6:00am
"If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed,"

i like that word....if that happen...the oil will skyrocket soon!!!haha

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80M0IU20120123
Bismillah
  • #299,420
  • Jan 29, 2012 6:14am Jan 29, 2012 6:14am
Large traders net position as of 01/24/12 (CFTC report 01/27/12).

Pound: SHORT 31,361 contracts
Euro. : SHORT 171,347
Aussie: LONG 69,486
Dollar : LONG 46,923


From COT charts below it seems still too early to say that medium/long-term trend of the Euro has been reversed.

Or perhaps the 'large traders that keep adding euro's short (usd's long) positions for the last 2 weeks are those that are within 95% ?

Well.. whatever will happen next week to the euro is certainly more or less will affect the other currencies
.
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