Kno's Golden Nuggets

Quoting knoholygrail

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I started my trading going long EUR/USD back during 2006 as I saw it go over 1.6000. In those days buy and hold worked. Today as events take place sometimes in minutes you need to be very nimble. I trade the 15 minute charts always trading the direction of the trend which I determine for myself.

The most important element for any trader in forex is not to trade your fears, greed and especially ego. The market is always right until it is not. I focus on the fundamentals using technicals for proper entry and exit.

I use a trade plan for every trade and part of a trade plan is not to trade just to be in the market. Risk management is key to lasting as a forex trader.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Each of us have our own way to trade as suits our personalities and time available for trading. I have one trading tool that I could not trade forex without. It is a tool available to most if you so desire to use it.

At the moment scrolling on my TV screen is the following data;

Dow Futures up 27.00
Gold down $9.50
Oil flat
USD/JPY 76.76
EUR/JPY 102.73
EUR/USD 1.3385

On my FXCM UK trading platform I have 12 asset classes that I follow even though I am mainly trading EUR/USD

They are set in rows of three as follows;

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

AUD/USD, SPX500, US30

USOil, XAU/USD, XAG/USD

When the US markets are open from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM, I always watch the yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Years.

Now I will explain to anyone interested why I need this information.

All the above currencies and commodities are asset classes. The money constantly flows between these asset classes.

Let me give you a real life example. Right now the Dow Futures are up 27.00 well before the Europe open. Let us say that Europe likes the news of the last few hours and that positive stays and causes the US Markets to go up.

Since there is NO USA data on Monday the tone would be set.

The money will flow out of the 2 Year US Bonds and the also out of the 10 Year US Bonds since it appears that risk is back on.

The money flows to the EUR/USD and other risk currencies. The money flow leads the charts. When the panic is back on and the markets crash most of the funds flow into US Dollars which are then used to buy the US Bonds and as they go up in price then the yields go down.

This method works for me because it lets me follow the momentum of the various markets and asset classes and I have an edge in my trading.

I hope this post is helpful and if anyone has any questions please feel free to post them.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Quoting PipTrapper

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Okay so now we've established that you and I watch the same asset classes except for the treasury yields. I usually get the yield info from cnbc but it would be nice to see them on my screen. Any idea where I may find that info charted?
By the way, my preferred broker is also fxcm uk

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I would suggest Bloomberg TV which you can watch live on your monitor. I work with three monitors with the one on my left being my trading platform. The middle one is for charts and the hundred's of emails that I get each day. I use the one on my left for the open Oanda charts that I use.

My technicals consist of Bollinger Bands, EMA, Parobolic Sar and with FXCM UK fractional indicator. For myself I love using the SAR with the color green on top and red on the bottom. Below that I use MACD and RSI and I find that Oanda's Awesome Indicator gives me a feel for volume.

Getting back to the 2 Year and 10 Year Us Bonds they are very important in that they show where the money is ending up. When the Yields go down it means the money is going into the US Bonds and when the Yield goes up the money comes out as the US Bonds sell off as risk goes back on.

The changes in the yields gives you a heads up on where the money is flowing. You can also tryWWW.INO.COMfor information and charts on all asset cleasses. It is a free service. Chart of 10 Year US Bonds ...http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...t=&a=&w=&v=d12

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Quoting knoholygrail

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We can always learn new things each day as long as we keep an open mind. Having a positive mental attitude and reducing fear of loss by increased knowledge is a good thing.

Right now even though Japan is closed the retail trader's seem to think EUR/USD is meant to go up since Merkel and Sarkozy put a positive spin on the problems. The problems are not solved as yet and doubts remain if there is a real solution without great pain for the banks. It should reflect more how the markets will react more on Tuesday rather than Monday however keep in mind short term the market is always right until it is wrong. We will have better clues after 2:00 AM EST when the Europe stock markets get ready to open. Then the risk on risk off assets start to trade and the money flow to the various asset classes will move the prices around. Of course the technicals are part of this since everyone knows where support and resistance is.

Have fun trading forex and only trade with funds you can afford to lose. I traded demo accounts for three years before I ever did a live trade with real funds. That worked for me and five years later I am still trading real funds and learning more each day.

I remember when I traded EUR/USD and EUR/JPY at the same time not realizing at the time that they basically go in the same direction.

When USD/JPY goes down which means it gets stronger then this causes movement in EUR/JPY and when EUR/JPY goes up it usually brings EUR/USD up with it or down with it.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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One of the things that trader's should be aware of is that if EUR/JPY moves up 50 to 100 PIPS it will bring EUR/USD up with it. You should also look at charts of EUR/JPY.

When the Yen is sold in larger volume and Euro's are bought in the currency pair it can counter weakness in EUR/USD. It depends on volume and other factors. EUR/JPY has had quite a run down and it is capable of a bounce back. This is not a market call by myself it is just to point it out.

IFR markets shorted EUR/JPY at 1.0315 with a Stop at 1.0395

EUR/JPY now trades at 1.0320 and is rising on a 15 minute chart from 1.0246 at 3:00 PM EST

Barclay's is now putting out a buy call on EUR/JPY because of the large short position on Euro's.

Everyone has an opinion and in the end it is about supply and demand. There is not much volume in these markets now so moves can get exagerated.

Sometimes the BEST trade is no trade at least until you have a trade plan and a real reason to enter a trade.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Forex is a business where they buy and sell currencies and supply and demand mean something. In between it is a game with the game stacked in favor of the powers that be. That is the reason that you also need to know the unwritten rules of the game to be a winner as well.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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We share the same sentiments. I am basically a fundamental trader however we must always remember short term PERCEPTION rules the day. It always happens that way since the masses go along with the crowd. That also includes the professionals or so called experts. I am a contrarian however I read all points of view.

I have determined like yourself based on the fundamentals the Euro is heading down. However right now the PERCEPTION in the market is positive so we have shorts covering and others going long.

You are wise to stay out for the moment as there are many opportunities to go short with the fundamentals telling the real story. Part of good trading and risk management is having a good trade plan.

One part of having a good trade plan is not to trade. It is much easier to trade when you have a clear mind and can be patient and look for good opportunities.

As long as the fundamentals have not changed the first fly in the ointment will cause PERCEPTION to change back to reality.

From the money flow you can see how things have gone as they flowed out of US Bonds into Oil and Gold and the British Pound and everything in the mind of many people is fine even though we know it is not. As you see the money flow out of US Bonds the yields go up and risk is back on.

There are very intelligent people on this thread and it is fun to share and learn and put our Ego's away while we trade and have fun. It is more fun to make money and be right however in the end Risk Management and Common Sense is more important than anything else.

Part of Risk Management is staying out of a trade when there is none for the moment. That is the differece between trading and gambling.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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The good thing about this strategy is that there is logic and real facts that go along with it.

I watch CNBC while I trade in order to follow the following Asset Classes.

At the moment the Dow Futures are UP 118

Oil is Up to $84.47 and Gold is UP to $1,665.00 and now to the most important numbers that allows us to see where the money is flowing. I choose to use the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds as they tell the picture for me. There is also 5 Years and 30 Years however I only use the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

Right now the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .29% and the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds is 2.07%

The spread is 178 basis points.

As the Yields go up it means that the US Bonds are going down in price.

Here is a chart of the 10 Year US Bond.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...t=&a=&w=&v=d12

When risk is back on as it is now the US Bonds are sold off and the US Dollars are used to buy other Asset Classes such as Euro, Oil, Gold and other currencies.

When the Dow sells off and it always does the money flow reverses as does the value of the other Asset classes. There are sometimes exceptions to the rule when major events take effect like a Swiss Bank intervention or a G-7 Intervention into the Yen.

You can watch things on Bloomberg TV from the internet if you do not have CNBC.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Here is how it goes. By solving the problem short term they print money out of thin air. However short term the markets think that all is well even though it is not. The lemmings come in and the markets go up and so does the Euro and other Asset classes. However Gold increases in value because of debasement of the currency so when Gold goes up for real reasons on fundamentals other Asset classes go up on false PERCEPTIONS that all is well.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Gold and Silver have no debt. Gold and Silver has been a store of wealth for over 5000 Years.

We had the Roman Empire and after the British Empire and Then there was Germany. All fiat currencies end up self destructing for the same reasons.

Because of the Breton Woods and the US Dollar becoming the world's reserve currency up until recent days and along with the decoupling of Gold from the US Dollar on August 15, 1971 there has been no check and balance on money printing since 1971.

Then along came Free Trade and Globilization and now we have a Big Problem.

We might not have a Gold standard however the price of Gold will continue to go up.

It is not a question of if however when. It has gone up substantially in the last ten years and it can only go higher.

You can sell Gold in any currency. The better Asset class is Silver. More upside and less downside.

My call is for Gold to be trading over $2000 in 2012 and Silver over $50

The historical ratio between Gold and Silver is 16 to 1

Look at it now. Silver is an industrial metal. The emerging nations have Billions of people. The power structure in the world is changing. We can see it in front of our eyes every day.

Gold is at $1667.00 and very strong today.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Let the market find it's own level. Gold is up approaching $1700 US again and Oil is up. The US Bond market catches up tomorrow. Watch the Europe open and pre open at 2:00 AM

Let the price action give you a heads up.

Be patient and wait for the odds to be in your favor. I am out of all my positions now in cash.

It is much easier to be rational when you are in cash.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Yes it is important to look for some fundamentals that justify the price.

There has been nothing but good news since we observed "The Last Supper"

Well I thought it was funny. Let's step back now and come up with one conclusion at the moment. The PERCEPTION by the masses is another way to see it, MORE BUYER'S than SELLER'S

The first MAJOR news out that changes that PERCEPTION will be a wake up call to REALITY.

Then EUR/USD will reverse. It does not matter when it is. We watch price action and the facts.

It sounds simple and it is with DISCIPLINE.

USD/CNY seems to be the reason. WE are at the edge of a currency bill in congress.

Goldman SAKS put out that view earlier today. We should watch this factor now as well.

Have a good trading day and be patient. The bad news wil come as sure as the SUN will shine.

Buy the RUMOR and SELL the news. Expectations are out of line with reality.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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2 Year US Bonds - .30% A Big Rise in Yield

10 Year US Bonds 2.22% Yield

The money goes into US Dollars on the sales and then US Dollars buy Gold, Oil, GBP/USD and EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

Now Dow Futures are at UP 87

Gold is at $1684 and Oil is up....

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I have long maintainted that in order to be a winning forex trader you first need to be a winner in life. A positive mental attitude. A healthy understanding that while money is important it is but a tool of life. When we trade forex we take our fears and our greed and our ego into the markets.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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When the Dow and other markets go down usually that means that investor's see the risks coming back so they exit the markets and sell their positions collecting their respective currencies. Then they buy the US Dollar and with those US Dollars they put it into short term US Bonds or Treasuries whether 2 Year or 5 Year or 10 Year. They get almost no Yield however they think their money is safe.

When RISK comes back on because the Masses think the ECB and the FED have solved all the problems positions reverse and they sell the US Bonds and the Yields go up as the US Bonds go down. The US Dollars are then sold to buy other currencies which then are used to buy other asset classes. This explanation is a little simplistic however it makes the point I think. There are also other currents at play such as the buying the Yen as well for a safe haven and at other times selling the Yen in other to buy higher Yielding asset classes.

Then there is INTERVENTION at times by the various central banks to confuse things more however bottom line RISK ON - Markets UP and US Dollar DOWN !!! (With Exceptions at Times)

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Quoting knoholygrail

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When I say fundamentals I go way past just reading the news. There are many cross currents at play here.

USD/JPY is now at 76.08 and Japan just might INTERVENE if it goes below 75.50

If this happens they can sell JPY and buy EUR or sell it and buy Gold. I will watch the EUR/JPY pair for clues.

On Friday Janet Yellin a strong supporter of Bernake of the FED suggested maybe more Money Printing so we had a strong rise in the Dow. When the Dow rises it usually means Risk On and so what happens is they sell the US Bonds where they park the money when Risk is Off.

I follow the Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

The KEY for me is where will the money flow as news comes out. The odds are good that EUR/USD will go down. However I need to watch Price Action, The USD/JPY situation and maybe most important of all is what will the US Stock Markets do this coming week.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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When I first started trading real funds during 2006, at times I held positions for as long as a month. This of course was on drawdowns. After 2008 this method became too risky as was evidenced by EUR/USD hitting it's all time high just over 1.6000 and then by September 2008 it was holding above 1.5000 and by November 2008 we saw 1.2500

I am a very very short term trader now. For every $50,000 US I manage I do about 25 trades a day. I can be in and out of positions in minutes at times.

I always trade with the trend that I alone determine. For example as of this instant my call for the trend in EUR/USD is down. That can change in a split second so please do not take that as a suggestion for yourself or anyone. However at the moment I would be going short EUR/USD.

The KEY is where do I short ? I do not like to trade Sunday night since usually Japan and Asia are too quiet. Today is not a day to be in the markets because of many issues unsettled. Will Japan intervene on USD/JPY ? They will in my opinion short term if it goes below 75.50

Will the Dow go up on Monday or reverse ?

What will happen to Gold this week ?

I know I have not answered the question that you asked as yet.

I will now that I showed you other factors that I watch.

Here is how watching CNBC live as I trade live helps me in my trading.

Basically it is about Risk On and Risk Off.

Remember awhile ago when the USA was downgraded to Double AA from Triple AAA and some thought the US Dollar would go down. What happened was the money went to the only SAFE HAVEN for the moment and that was US Bonds.

I follow the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds and watch what the 30 Year US Bonds are doing.

On Friday when the Dow and other USA markets went up it was mainly because of what Janet Yellin of the FED had said publically. The FED might need to PRINT MORE MONEY or as they like to call it Quantatative Easing.

That causes the US Dollar to get weaker and Gold to get stronger.

That also allows the Stock Market to have risk on as it moves up and the Sky has stopped falling for the masses.

Just drop the m in masses and you get the point. When you wish upon a star and so it goes.

While the US Dollar got weaker the Euro got stronger as did the Yen and now INTERVENTION is possible short term only. Then we have the Eurozone problem and the meeting in Cannes, France of the G-20 during November 3RD and 4TH of 2011. There is also a FED meeting before that and NFP the first Friday of the month. These are all factors that I watch and am aware of.

The world forex market is where currencies are traded by the Powers that be or Manipulated. First it is a business and then it is a game. Those with the gold make the golden rules and if we do not know the rules of the game we just might lose.

Charts are important and Support and Resistance is good however when you have the Swiss INTERVENE and USD/CHF moves 1000 PIPS in seconds you need to understand and use Risk Management.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I focus on Europe from 2:00 AM EST to 6:00 AM and then a break and I get ready for the North American open. I see the open as 7:00 AM EST even though the markets open at 9:30 AM. There are the Dow futures and news out usually at 8:30 AM EST.

One of the most IMPORTANT FUNDAMENTALS that very few forex trader's use is what I call the money flow between asset classes.

I use correlation between the money flow and the various asset classes to see which way the technicals will move. I cannot imagine trading without looking at the live prices that...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I have found a pattern that repeats more often than not. I think I understand why this happens. To start my comments on this look at where EUR/USD was this morning at 1:45 AM EST. On my Oanda 15 Minute charts it was 1.3882and then it rose to 1.3839 by 2:00 AM EST. From there it moved down to 1.3822 at 6:45 AM. The high and low on my FXCM UK platform shows as 1.39552 and 1.38208.

The pattern will most likely repeat between 6:45 AM and 9:30 AM.

This pattern is not always there however it is regular enough that good profits can be made by being...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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There is a very important point that I want to share about opening hours in each time zone. This is both an observation and a fact.

For myself I use 2:00 AM EST as the start of the Europe trading session. I also use 7:00 PM EST for the start of the Asia trading session however it continues to get stronger as more area's join in right up to 10:00 PM EST.

For the USA or North American session my starting point is 7:00 AM EST.

There is a very interesting occurence during these times. You all can start to follow it on your own now that I...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Since the banks have more research and knowledge most of the time they usually set the real direction for that day. Another way to put it is if you see it as buying and selling their orders which moves the markets short term with more power than the retail trader's following the charts among other things. You can say they are better informed and they are doing their business among the little fish.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I am a fundamental trader and I use technicals for good entry and exit. I do not make trade calls since that is not my purpose here. I use charts however I do not produce them or post them. I have been trading forex since 2006 for my clients.

And now one more time I will try to get it right.

Perserverance is my greatest strength.

One of the most important characteristics of a winning forex trader is an open mind and good character maturity. You will take out your fears, your greed and your ego while trading if you do not work on your...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I find this analysis with charts that I get everyday to be informative. Take note about the correlation between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and of course in case you are not aware usually as EUR/JPY goes up down, EUR/USD moves with it.

http://www.sunbirdfx.com/daily-analysis

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Alorente

You have strong convictions concerning direction using your technical methods and guidelines. I am not posting this to tell you that you are wrong or should change anything you do.

I am a very strong fundamental trader with a excellent understanding of human nature. I definitely use technicals to see the support and resistance and the pyschology of the market.

I have been out of the market all in cash so I have a clear mind and no bias. I have an opinion for sure that the EUR/USD pair is heading down. As PipTrapper mentioned...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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To answer to my titleof my post what happens around 2:00 AM EST or GMT + 5 for me is the start of my trading day. I am a full time currency trader that trades off fundamentals and technicals.

I suggest you will see certain pattens everyday that repeat in forex with some exceptions. It has to do first of all with the end of the Asia session which usually gets going around 7:00 PM EST as different time zones kick in and it is in full bloom by 10:00 PM EST.

Things have settled down by 11:00 PM EST and then there is usually not much activity until the time frame you refer to.

2:00 AM EST is when I wake up and start my trading day. We start to get the retail trader's from Europe coming on board. The bank trader's and currency houses start coming into work.

Then at 3:00 AM the FTSE and the DAX and the other's open for trading. There is news out overnight from the various newspapers and of course the Dow futures are showing a direction at that time.

As orders get filled by the bigger players and news is filtered in as the open of trading starts at 3:00 AM EST and if there is new fundamental facts then the stock markets react accordingly. As the money moves in and out of the stock markets they flow into other asset classes such as Gold, Oil and the various European Bonds. The money flow is what moves the charts along with support and resistance levels being factored in.

This happens again at about 7:00 AM EST at the start of the markets opening in North America.

There is the morning newspapers, the digesting of the data out of Europe overnight and of course the talking heads on CNBC along with all the experts. (Joke)

Then at 8:30 AM EST there is data releases in the USA and Canada and the tone is set for the day.

The markets start at 9:30 AM EST and as money flows into and out of the Dow, SP500 it goes elsewhere as well into Gold, Oil, US Bonds and this gets extreme if we have a Risk on or Risk off day.

If the Dow doesgo down on Monday another 300 points of course I also include the SP500, the money usually leaves EUR/USD and if there are margin calls and other factors and Gold gets sold as well. This might happen as US DX gets stronger Gold might react accordingly.

The money then flows into US Dollars and then the only Safe Place (Not For Much Longer) the US Bonds. I watch the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the price of the US Bonds go up with the parking of money then the Yields go down.

That is the opposite of what is happening in Italy, Germany and other PIIGS at the moment as their Bunds or whatever sell off the money goes to the safety of US Bonds.

The charts are always moved from the money flow. You can confirm this for yourself by watching the money flow yourself. I never trade without having CNBC in front of me or any similar source of information that shows me the price of Gold, Oil, US Bonds (In North America Session) an the other currencies such as EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF.

USD/CAD moves depending on price of Gold, Oil, The markets move USD/CAD with Risk On or Off and of course the strength of the DX which is 57.6 % made up of EUR/USD.

I hope this post proves useful and this upcoming week might be some week with all the new data coming out including NFP on Friday along with the MESS in Europe.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I tried to answer your questions inside of your post and it got cut off.

Here we go again.

Since you mentioned actively watching the behaviour of oil and gold and how that helps in reviewing the behaviour of USD/CAD...due to the fact that...well, CAD is a commodity dollar...do you factor that in play too when trading the NZD and the AUD...since they are commodity dollars too?

Kno:

When you trade USD/CAD while it is a commodity currency it also behaves as relates to the USA with regard to risk on or risk off and also with regard to the state of the US economy.

I do not trade USD/CAD very often unless I see a special situation.

I specialize in EUR/USD

I trade USD/JPY at times again when I see a new opportunity present itself.

At the present time there is announced INTERVENTION in USD/JPY if it goes below 76.00 and the same now with USD/CHF.


What role do china fits into your fundamental picture in all of this? Or do you think agricultural products like milk and wool drives NZD more?

Kno:

The only commodities that move the markets is Oil and Gold and I ignore the rest.

China has a big role since they hold over One Trillion in US Dollars and they are slowly moving into Gold and other hard assets.

They have been funding Europe quietly however they always take Gold as collateral for obvious reasons.

Do you use the correlation between the SP500 with USD/JPY to trade?

Kno:

I definitely use the SP500 and Dow to follow the money flow. On most days there is a correlation mainly through Risk on and Risk off.

As I pointed out before when the Dow sells of 250 or more you will see money leave EUR/USD and other currencies as sales of stocks then end in cash and the cash whether in EUR/USD or another currency such as GBP/USD finds it's way to US Dollars in order to buy the short term US Bonds. I follow mainly the yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the money flows into the US Bonds you can see the Yields go down and that tells me where money is being parked short term.

You can see the same thing happening in Europe now as the Bunds and other Europe Bonds sell off and the Yields go over 7% and danger signs like just happened in Italy on Friday.

USD/JPY is also a place money is parked when there is Risk on however there is always the danger now of INTERVENTION below 76.00 so I do not trade it now as the range now is 75.50 to 78.00

How about when there is a divergence in correlation, direct or inverse...with the usual suspects of SP500/GOLD/OIL/BONDS against currencies....in what direction do you weight your fundamental views...what parameters/conditions/criteria do you use to weight them?

Kno:

I just watch which way all the money is following and understanding other factors such as Risk on or off and now there is NEW FACTORS such as a breakdown in the Eurozone and INTERVENTIONS to keep some order.

I do much reading and research to understand what is really happening.

Things are changing everyday so you need to watch price action and how a currency reacts to news.

As an example if the Dow is down 250 or so and EUR/USD is also down if in the middle of the day Bernake makes some comment about New QE or a form of Stimulus the Dow might reverse 150 in moments. As that happens Risk comes back on and US Bonds are now sold and the reverse effect takes place. EUR/USD can rally 50 to 75 PIPS.

Nothing has really changed for the moment other than new spin.

The same happens in Europe everytime Merkel and Sark KISS and make up.

There is new leaders in Greece and Italy and things are getting worse not better.

The short term hope gave it a boost however as Bunds and other Bonds sell off and more and more traders (THE BIG ONES) realize next comes a real default and maybe the end of the Eurozone as we know it the markets vote by putting their money in safer places.

PERCEPTION moves the markets until FUNDAMENTALS give the WAKE UP CALL such as the Germany Bond Auction going bad and then the cost of money in Italy going over 7%.

We are now in a REALITY MOOD until more SPIN comes out of Europe.

The USA will be affected through their Banks which are insolvent. They have liquidity however they need to use it once their real losses are revealed.

The race is to the bottom for the FIAT currencies and China is waiting for their opportunity. The recent debacle of November 23, 2011 did not help the USA situation and soon there will be another downgrade from AA Plus to AA and it will also include Moody's and Fitch.

I hope I have answered some of your questions. I do not have your technical skills however I always use the various charts available to monitor Support and Resistance in the different time frames.

I use my own charts off of Oanda using on Top the Bollinger Bands with EMA and SAR and Fractional.

Down below I use MACD and RSI along with Awesome Indicator.

I use proper Risk Management of Money Management and for myself the most important part of trading forex is to have control of your fears, greed and ego. After that the rest is easy.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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http://news.goldseek.com/Internation...1322415197.php

What has happened without all the analysis for whatever reason is that the equities markets have bounced up in Asia, Europe and probably in the USA.

Risk is back on so the money flow reverses.

There is much real news coming out this week. The link above is from a source that understands what really is going on out there.

Never forget that there is so much of that going on beyond our eyes so that short term there are ups and downs. In the end it will all breakdown as the next year will bring major changes.

My opinion is not to try to hard to assume what might happen. Observe and understand and look for good opportunities.

Right now I would say one of the major issues to watch is Risk on or Risk off and watch carefully the movements in all the bonds.

Have a great trading week and use proper risk management and choose your spots.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...world-done-now

This should be understood by everyone on this thread. We do not have Free Markets however understanding their moves lets you know what might happen. The second I read what they did I knew Gold would rise and it did by $50 US and the US Bonds sold off and out of the US Dollar and into riskier assets like markets, other currencies and as the US Dollar index went down it helped Gold go up.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I use the charts at Oanda and I use on Top the following;

Bollinger Bands, EMA, SAR and Fractionals.

Underneath I use MACD and RSI and Awesome Indicator.

I use 5 Minute and 15 minute for in out trades and watch the other time frames such as 1 hour and 4 hour.

I hope this explains things and I hope you will still think I am cute. My birthday comes up at the end of this month and as I near 70 I would describe myself as aging physically however growing mentally by the moment. I hope to peak around 90 and then head into the home strech...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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There is no perfect correlation since sometimes other factors are at play.

However in general when the Dow is going down or SP500 more or less the same thing. The ratio there is about 7 to 1 and again this is general.

When money leaves the Dow it means thar risk is off and the money flows into US Bonds to be parked.

The Euro is sold and American Dollars are bought and then the US Bonds are bought. I follow the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

The movement between asset classes moves the charts as prices change....

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Quoting knoholygrail

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http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

My method when it comes to educating myself on the fundamentals is to read both points of view. The mainstreet point of view via sources such as CNBC and others. Then I read many different however similar articles in this case on the MF Global meltdown.

After 12 years of reading certain analysts I can determine for myself which ones are accurate although none of them can predict timing since WE DO NOT HAVE FREE TRADING...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Earlier this morning when EUR/USD was trading around 1.3300 I looked where the next support was. I saw on the Oanda/IFR chart numbers that support was at 1.3282 and 1.3259.

I checked the Oanda/IFR news and I read about the large Option Expiry Barrier at 1.3250 and of course it is also a round number support.

They managed to hit the target and bring it below. There is Billions of Dollars involved and all we need to do is check this information each day Monday through Friday before 10:00 AM EST and be aware. The information is there and easy...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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http://www.ehow.com/way_6151368_fore...y-options.html

Bottom line you do not need to understand them in detail. You just need to know they will move the markets and the CHARTS so just by being aware of them you get another edge. I knew this morning there would be a battle over the 1.3250 Strike Price.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Put these rules in place and NEVER change them. We then start. Forget the charts alone. Forget price action alone. Forget fundamentals alone.

First NEVER trade EVER without a Trade Plan that you understand.

Your Trade Plan was to go long expecting a retrace.

MISTAKE ONE - Expect Nothing !!!

Solution One - Never lose more than 5% of your Trade Capital on any one Trade Plan. You should ALWAYS put in a STOP LOSS at the 5% level and that's it.

Last night I called things when the EUR/USD was at 1.3300

I was waiting for support...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Whatever the mind of Humankind can conceive and believe They can achieve.

The Six Fears of Life !!!

(1) The Fear of Poverty

(2) The Fear of Criticism

(3) The Fear of Loss of Love

(4) The Fear of Ill Health

(5) The Fear of Old Age

(6) The Fear of Death.

I have conquered all of those fears.

You need a Master Plan and a Group around you who can assist you with your Master Plan.

Napolean Hill interviewed among others Einstein, Wilbur Wright, Alexander Graham Bell.

Andrew Carnagie helped by introducing Hill...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...ebt-free-money

Snippet:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...63-250x114.jpgMost Americans have no idea that...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I had a great Mentor at the start of my trading career. I was a better trader than he was on forex. He only traded futures and traded over a million dollar fund for family, friends and clients. He never traded his own funds. I traded some of his funds mainly Euro Future contracts.

He had ONE MAIN rule for me. Do not leave any open contracts without a Stop Loss.

The part that he helped me one was not trading. It was state of mind.

You cannot have much chance to make profits when you are in a negative state of mind. The reason is obvious....

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Quoting knoholygrail

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A Chart on the 2 Year US Bonds and 10 Year US Bonds should correlate with the Dow 30

That is Risk On and Risk Off

Then a Chart on Dow 30

That should correlate to EUR/USD

The US Dollar Index will correlate to Dow UP or Dow Down.

I think you start to get the point.

We know the Correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY however movement in USD/JPY causes that movement at times that USD/JPY is active.

GBP/USD can move EUR/USD along with it.

Charts make the picture clearer and we can see divvergences.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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What you are talking about is human nature and pyschology.

When you trade it is best if you do not see it as money being traded.

This might sound silly on the surface however it is really true.

I trade trying very hard not to see it as money won or money lost.

I see it a a score card on my total day of trading.

If I see it as money whether won or lost my emotions take over and my decisions become faulty.

When I have losses it means the trade was wrong and I take my loss. STOP LOSS ALWAYS takes out some of the emotions....

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Dow Futures now at Plus 11

2 Year Us Bonds Yield now at .27%

10 Year US Bonds Yield now at 1.90%

Gold now at $1567.27 US Spot

I need to set the price now on my dairy which in fact now is this thread so that I can see where the money is flowing berween the asset classes.

I do this once an hour and I watch live constantly.

News comes out at 8:30 AM EST and this data will be analysed by everyone and acted upon and then movement starts on the various asset classes. A general theme on this of course is Risk On and Risk Off.

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading
Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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The market is always right.

I do the same thing however I try hard to only enter when I see little chance of my position going against me.

On a 15 minute chart now I see EUR/USD near the top of the Bollinger Band so if I did a trade I would short there. Once I had about 15 PIPS of profit I would wait until I could lock in at least 10 and then lower my stop each new 10 PIPS down.

That is why my winning percfentage of trades is above 75%

When I get a good run of 50 PIPS or more it becomes easier to reach my profit goal of 1/2 % a...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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The Dow futures are now unchanged at 0

The USD/JPY is testing it's low at 77.28

If it breaks that it will being EUR/JPY below 100.00 and EUR/USD down as well.

However watch Dow at open and Yield on 2 Year US Bonds and 10 Year US Bonds to see where the money is flowing to.

Dow open at 9:30 AM and Option Expiry at 10:00 AM and Europe goes home for the YRAR at NOON so watch profit taking and closing of positions.

The Yield before when I posted it was .27% and 1.90%

It is now at .26% and 1.89% which means money is flowing into...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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10 Trading Rules for Successful Traders
1. Limit your losses.
2. Let your profits run.
3. Keep position sizes within reason.
4. Know your risk-reward ration.
5. Be adequately capitalised.
[size=4][FONT=Comic...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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My logic is based on the following information.

(1) The retail market including black box trading is getting larger everyday as witnessed by the increase in volume to about four trillion dollars a day.

We start with Asia and since it is the slowest market and news from the Europe arena is not out as yet the news flow is at a minimum except for unexpected news events that can occur in minutes.

There is a tendency for the retail trader's to go with the momentum rather than the fundamentals which in this case means very short term news...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Some Important Lessons
All of these experiences helped guide my investment strategies for the rest of my life, and I think you can learn from them too.
First, I learned that the best time to buy anything — stocks, bonds, real estate — is when no one else wants it.
Wait until people's emotions are so powerful they forget the original reasons they started selling in the first place. Wait until people are selling just for the sake of selling. Don't trust the public mood. When everything looks the blackest, it could be the time for...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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First of all my only objective is to make money. I am not stuck on any terminology.

After I saw the reaction to FOMC and seeing EUR/USD behaving the way it did and being fairly confident it would not move up especially with Europe closed, My Trade Plan was to Short One Position of EUR/USD risking $800 US of capital on an account with $87,320.20 in it. My risk was small and I stated my position.

I have already closed my position and my net gain is $113.00 US on capital used of $800 US

I just need to do that 10 times a day to earn $1000...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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We can see things many ways. Your views are welcome and respected. If I can be helpful without being judgemental it will be my pleasure.

Follow my posts on money flow. It is about Risk On and Risk Off and now I will give you a real example. If you already know this that is fine. If not it can only help you.

Let's talk about correlation.

Right now EUR/JPY is at 100.00 If it breaks 100.00 and goes to say 99.50 it will bring EUR/USD down. Watch USD/JPY at 76.65 which causes EUR/JPY to move. There is reasons for every movement. Put up a...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I have tried to point this out before and now that I am back trading 24 on 24 I can show exactly what I mean. I have an edge and the edge is that I taught myself to trade properly having an open mind and the common sense to teach myself with help from a few special mentors on the pyschological side which is a whole different subject.

The KEY to making profits is to understand the correlations and the trading pattens. Whenever I discover something new both fundamental or technical it is added to my trading experience.

When you use the charts...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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I started trading Demo during September 2003. I Demo traded only until March 9, 2006 and by October 2, 2007 I was managing my FIRST $100,000 US Dollars Real Funds account for a Hong Kong company.

I traded it for only 35 days and had a Net Profit over $19,000 US

I made 1502 FX Trades in 35 days. I did not know then that by having trades in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY long that I was trading almost the same currency pair. When I finally learned that I became a better FX trader.

So I speak with hands on experience and knowledge.

Here is WHY...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Have a Trade Plan and PLEASE Use your methods as well and just add to it. That is the beauty of experience. Use what you know that works for you and your personality and add new things to go along with your technical skills.

One closing thought...

Forex is a Cherry Pie. I love Cherry Pie.

Here is my formula for Cherry Pie.

50% Human Pyschology
25% Fundamentals
10% Technicals
10% Common Sense
5% Desire to learn.

Now if I take out the 50% because if you do not have that then your fears, your greed and your ego will put you...

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Quoting knoholygrail

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Thanks Tyoon for also wanting to help others. I have a lot of respect for you and please keep in mind that you can also teach me things.

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Quoting TheBanker

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Keep this going, interesting read!

Perhaps kno could show us how your trading charts look like in real time.

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Quoting aud

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Thanks for taking the time to make the thread Tyoon, you must feel honoured to have knoholygrail now posting here.

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