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  • #14,401
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:31am Dec 12, 2011 7:31am
Quoting PipKiller
Right in line with the supply and demand levels I posted earlier.


If there was an options barrier at 1.3250 it's burnt now. Low today now 1.3240.
Hug PK - a warm warm hug
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,402
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:36am Dec 12, 2011 7:36am
Quoting knoholygrail
The question is this ? Are you familiar with Option Expiry each morning Monday to Friday at 10:00 AM EST ?

Is there anyone else here that uses this in their trading or can explain it ?

There is a definite logic in trading forex and making profits.

In closing I go back to my question on Option Expiry at 10:00 AM EST
Good post and something many here including myself could use some education on.

I'm not real good at this but here is my basic views of 10 am options expiries on monday and friday.

There are 2 sides to an option just like trading anything else. One side stands to make big money and the other side stands to lose big money. So we have a fight over the level until it either breaks before the 10 am expiry or it hits the 10 am expiry before it is broken.

These options being fought over are big enough to move the markets when cashed in as well as move the markets as levels are defended and attacked.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,403
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:38am Dec 12, 2011 7:38am
Quoting FXMindset
Hug PK - a warm warm hug
LOL Thank you, just no sloppy wet kiss please.

Inserted Video
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,404
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:42am Dec 12, 2011 7:42am
Quoting PipKiller
Good post and something many here including myself could use some education on.

I'm not real good at this but here is my basic views of 10 am options expiries on monday and friday.

There are 2 sides to an option just like trading anything else. One side stands to make big money and the other side stands to lose big money. So we have a fight over the level until it either breaks before the 10 am expiry or it hits the 10 am expiry before it is broken.

These options being fought over are big enough to move the markets when cashed in as well as...
i'm lead to believe that the expiries you are looking are vanilla and don't quite work that way, but the intention behind them is somewhat the same.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #14,405
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:43am Dec 12, 2011 7:43am
i am not too familiar with options, about the fact that the US is also in focus of course i am, also the swaps, the back door QE and the sort , yes the US actually has more impact in the markets than the euro. would you care to educate me on options?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #14,406
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:43am Dec 12, 2011 7:43am
Should we now consider 1.3214 as a possible low and major support area ?


LF
  • #14,407
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:49am Dec 12, 2011 7:49am
Quoting nubcake
i'm lead to believe that the expiries you are looking are vanilla and don't quite work that way, but the intention behind them is somewhat the same.
I don't understand that much about options and don't trade them. My knowledge of options is very, very limited and very crude and basic. I do know what vanilla and DNT mean and understand the importance of their expiries and that I don't have the money to fight this kind of flow of cash.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #14,408
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:53am Dec 12, 2011 7:53am
Quoting LearninForex
Should we now consider 1.3214 as a possible low and major support area ?


LF
Do you still hold your long?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,409
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:53am Dec 12, 2011 7:53am
Quoting PipKiller
Good post and something many here including myself could use some education on.

I'm not real good at this but here is my basic views of 10 am options expiries on monday and friday.

There are 2 sides to an option just like trading anything else. One side stands to make big money and the other side stands to lose big money. So we have a fight over the level until it either breaks before the 10 am expiry or it hits the 10 am expiry before it is broken.

These options being fought over are big enough to move the markets when cashed in as well as...
Earlier this morning when EUR/USD was trading around 1.3300 I looked where the next support was. I saw on the Oanda/IFR chart numbers that support was at 1.3282 and 1.3259.

I checked the Oanda/IFR news and I read about the large Option Expiry Barrier at 1.3250 and of course it is also a round number support.

They managed to hit the target and bring it below. There is Billions of Dollars involved and all we need to do is check this information each day Monday through Friday before 10:00 AM EST and be aware. The information is there and easy to understand.

That is why each day I watch the 9:30 AM time (Start of trading) and the 10:00 AM EST and also the time between 11:00 AM and NOON as Europe goes home and closes positions.

I have to go out now however we can continue this conversation later on.

The FED meets and there is a Rate Decision on December 13, 2011 at 2:15 PM EST

Take care...
  • #14,410
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:54am Dec 12, 2011 7:54am
Quoting LearninForex
Should we now consider 1.3214 as a possible low and major support area ?


LF
You can look at it all you want... but judge it by PA once it gets there. If PA bounces strongly, then maybe. By bounce I mean a 20 or 30 pip bull bar on the 5 min followed by a higher high and higher low.

It is worth noting that we are in an 8 month bear market and the rock bottom of this bear is probably quite a ways down there. However it could take us a couple of years to get there.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,411
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:57am Dec 12, 2011 7:57am
Quoting knoholygrail

The FED meets and there is a Rate Decision on December 13, 2011 at 2:15 PM EST
I was wondering... I thought it might have been something that was not on the calendar.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,412
  • Dec 12, 2011 7:59am Dec 12, 2011 7:59am
Quoting FXMindset
Do you still hold your long?

Yes
  • #14,413
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:00am Dec 12, 2011 8:00am
Quoting AaronWard
You can look at it all you want... but judge it by PA once it gets there. If PA bounces strongly, then maybe. By bounce I mean a 20 or 30 pip bull bar on the 5 min followed by a higher high and higher low.

It is worth noting that we are in an 8 month bear market and the rock bottom of this bear is probably quite a ways down there. However it could take us a couple of years to get there.

It will eventually go beyond this, but what I m keen on knowing is that will it go down now or after a retrace till 1.34,1.35 or max 1.36 ?


LF
  • #14,414
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:02am Dec 12, 2011 8:02am
Quoting LearninForex
Yes
your hold reason ?
1.Not accepted the loss or,
2.believe that you are right


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,415
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:02am Dec 12, 2011 8:02am
http://www.ehow.com/way_6151368_fore...y-options.html

Bottom line you do not need to understand them in detail. You just need to know they will move the markets and the CHARTS so just by being aware of them you get another edge. I knew this morning there would be a battle over the 1.3250 Strike Price.

I hope this starts to explain things. Later I am off for the rest of the day. Other business to take care of. Good Trading !!!
  • #14,416
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:05am Dec 12, 2011 8:05am
Quoting FXMindset
your hold reason ?
1.Not accepted the loss or,
2.believe that you are right


Thanks

I have long open at 1.35. Obviously now I dont believe that I was right at that point time. its just too much money too loose for me.. hence holding it.. Would now try to close it with a lesser loss then what its showing now.

Any suggestions ?

LF
  • #14,417
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:07am Dec 12, 2011 8:07am
Quoting LearninForex
It will eventually go beyond this, but what I m keen on knowing is that will it go down now or after a retrace till 1.34,1.35 or max 1.36 ?


LF
technically we are ripe for a major retracement up from the move down from 1.425 from late October. This should happend after we hit a temporary bottom. Is that bottom 1.3214? or 1.3145 or 1.30 or 1.285? Nobody can tell you. That is the key problem with TA. It gives you a structure but no certainty.

Lots of talented and experienced guys have been waiting for this retracement for a couple of weeks now. It has been slow materializing.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #14,418
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:07am Dec 12, 2011 8:07am
Quoting LearninForex
I have long open at 1.35. Obviously now I dont believe that I was right at that point time. its just too much money too loose for me.. hence holding it.. Would now try to close it with a lesser loss then what its showing now.

Any suggestions ?

LF
Maybe our Mr.Cute - Mr.Knoho can give you a suggestion



Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #14,419
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:11am Dec 12, 2011 8:11am
Quoting FXMindset
Maybe our Mr.Cute - Mr.Knoho can give you a suggestion



Thanks

Then please do. I m not keen on closing or worried about the long at this point of time.. but more interested in knowing how do we identify a retrace ?

Aaron has mentioned about PA (I will again read your comment regarding PA) but anything more to add in that as I want to know about it in depth, so I can identify it myself next time and possibly this time and not being depended on anybody else.
  • #14,420
  • Dec 12, 2011 8:12am Dec 12, 2011 8:12am
Quoting LearninForex
I have long open at 1.35. Obviously now I dont believe that I was right at that point time. its just too much money too loose for me.. hence holding it.. Would now try to close it with a lesser loss then what its showing now.

Any suggestions ?

LF
How are you going to feel if you lose even more if this pair keeps going south another 300, 500, 1000 pips or more and doesn't come back for years. Hope and prayers is not a good trading strategy.

Your line of thinking is the fast track for blowing up your account.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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