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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #12,981
  • Edited 3:02am Dec 2, 2011 2:52am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks Kno, it was a great article. It is really late morning for me though. So maybe brunch time reading.

I am posting a chart that best shows (to me) the unnatural nature of PA on the Dow for the last 5 days. Almost all of the gains over the last week occurred in the low liquidity futures market.
Please look at this link !!!

http://mises.org/daily/5823/Support-...titute-in-2012

DISCLAIMER

Even though the link is somewhat commercial in nature my purpose is posting it is not for anyone to support their goals.

However on the other hand what they speak of is the truth. I get their emails and recently in Montreal on November 19, 2011 I met the President of the Canadian company that is trying to have The Austrian School of Economics introduced into Canadian Colleges.

The facts are clear. They are the future and there is much to learn.

Enjoy reading their free articles and educate yourself and understand where we are and where we are going.

Good Bye Keynes and Welcome Austrian and TRUTH !!!

Look at this Snippet...

More and cheaper money benefits those in government. The idea that academics can manage an economy appeals to campus Keynesians who have never run a business or made a payroll. The real economy of voluntary exchanges is foreign to them and fraught with danger. They are convinced that government must police the market, taking care of the weak and controlling the strong.

Well the other camp has shown their economics does not work.

Bernake is a disaster. What a fine mess you got us in. Who said that ? Was it Laurel or Hardy ?

http://www.patfullerton.com/lh/movies/finemess.html

NFP at 8:30 AM EST

Expectations are high so be careful if they are not met.

I have no idea which way it will go at the moment.
  • #12,982
  • Dec 2, 2011 2:58am Dec 2, 2011 2:58am
Bull Sign -
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,983
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:04am Dec 2, 2011 3:04am
Good Morning Guys:

Here is the Daily chart. PA is showing all the characteristics of a strong breakout from the wedge, with a nice double bottom to boot. The Trix is bullish and with a long way to go till overbought. The RSI has now established an uptrend line and is not even at 50 yet, so it has a long way to go also. There are bullish divergences showing everywhere and my Lorente indicator shows a strong move upward till Dec. 15th. The H4 chart shows a symmetrical triangle forming, which usually signals continuation. It just canīt get more bullish than this technically. Of course, as we all know, anything can happen, but I firmly expect a move to at least 1.37 in the days ahead.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,984
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:05am Dec 2, 2011 3:05am
Quoting FXMindset
Bull Sign -
Good Morning

Your charts are really helpful.

My lady friends always tell me that I am cute. Have a good day and a nice weekend.
  • #12,985
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:12am Dec 2, 2011 3:12am
Quoting Alorente
Good Morning Guys:

Here is the Daily chart. PA is showing all the characteristics of a strong breakout from the wedge, with a nice double bottom to boot. The Trix is bullish and with a long way to go till overbought. The RSI has now established an uptrend line and is not even at 50 yet, so it has a long way to go also. There are bullish divergences showing everywhere and my Lorente indicator shows a strong move upward till Dec. 15th. The H4 chart shows a symmetrical triangle forming, which usually signals continuation. It just canīt get more bullish...
Now we will watch and see what unfolds. If NFP is above 175,000 the markets will like it very much. The more important number is sometimes the revision and the UI rate.

BLS usually plays with the number so who knows what it will be. On the other side if it goes below 50,000 then we probably will see a selling of the Dow and other exchanges.

We will know over the next hours. Keep in mind it is also a Friday and we are a week away from December 9, 2011 when the Boys in the Hood meet to share their brilliant plans to solve the problem they helped create.

Go Banksters go...

Go To ?
  • #12,986
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:15am Dec 2, 2011 3:15am
Quoting knoholygrail
Good Morning

Your charts are really helpful.

My lady friends always tell me that I am cute. Have a good day and a nice weekend.
haha - you are more cute - care to share some of your chart - Just curious


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,987
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:19am Dec 2, 2011 3:19am
Here is the S&P Daily chart. It is also very bullish. PA is now in a crucial area, nearing the down trendline and right on the 200SMA. If it breaks here, it is more than likely going to new highs above 1350 because the Trix and the RSI still have a lot of room to run. I favor the continuation of the bullish move happening and breaking to new highs.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #12,988
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:24am Dec 2, 2011 3:24am
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...world-done-now

This should be understood by everyone on this thread. We do not have Free Markets however understanding their moves lets you know what might happen. The second I read what they did I knew Gold would rise and it did by $50 US and the US Bonds sold off and out of the US Dollar and into riskier assets like markets, other currencies and as the US Dollar index went down it helped Gold go up.

Comments and questions encouraged. Trade well and learn all the time.
  • #12,989
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:34am Dec 2, 2011 3:34am
Quoting FXMindset
haha - you are more cute - care to share some of your chart - Just curious


Thanks
I am a FUNDAMENTAL FX Trader. With folks like yourself and Alorente and PipTrapper and others I do not need to prepare charts.

I use the charts at Oanda and I use on Top the following;

Bollinger Bands, EMA, SAR and Fractionals.

Underneath I use MACD and RSI and Awesome Indicator.

I use 5 Minute and 15 minute for in out trades and watch the other time frames such as 1 hour and 4 hour.

I hope this explains things and I hope you will still think I am cute. My birthday comes up at the end of this month and as I near 70 I would describe myself as aging physically however growing mentally by the moment. I hope to peak around 90 and then head into the home strech heading to 100.

Have a good day and watch the movements in 4 hours as we get NFP which will move the charts.

The charts cannot tell us what NFP will be as of now.

Fundamentals might however because of the BLS Model we never know what they will be.

Take care...
  • #12,990
  • Dec 2, 2011 3:43am Dec 2, 2011 3:43am
Quoting fxrising
PipTrapper what do you think of the forecast for the upcoming NFP? Are the sp called experts on target?

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...-nfp-forecast/
Whether or not they are on target is not the main focus. What you need to look for is revisions of previous data. Last month's 80K could be revised up or down. Then you have to factor it in to today's number. After that you have to take that total and look at the trend. If it is still increasing, then you have a bull market. If it is decreasing, then you may have a bear market as long as it is not shrugged off as just a blip due to the panic caused by Europe.
This month will be hard to read so my plan is to wait 15 to 30 minutes after the report is released and see where the lemmings take us... then I follow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,991
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:05am Dec 2, 2011 4:05am
Quoting knoholygrail
I am a FUNDAMENTAL FX Trader. With folks like yourself and Alorente and PipTrapper and others I do not need to prepare charts.

I use the charts at Oanda and I use on Top the following;

Bollinger Bands, EMA, SAR and Fractionals.

Underneath I use MACD and RSI and Awesome Indicator.

I use 5 Minute and 15 minute for in out trades and watch the other time frames such as 1 hour and 4 hour.

I hope this explains things and I hope you will still think I am cute. My birthday comes up at the end of this month and as I near 70 I would describe...
Yeah Still Cute
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,992
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:41am Dec 2, 2011 4:41am
This is a Royal Bengal Tiger ... it can only be found in India .. precisely speaking West Bengal (Sunderban Forest) .. now a days it is declared as a very rare species .. I love its beauty and strength.
Attached Image
  • #12,993
  • Dec 2, 2011 4:51am Dec 2, 2011 4:51am
Quoting rekon67
This is a Royal Bengal Tiger ... it can only be found in India .. precisely speaking West Bengal (Sunderban Forest) .. now a days it is declared as a very rare species .. I love its beauty and strength.
Hoarrrrr
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,994
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:07am Dec 2, 2011 5:07am
... may mean more trust in the USD, thus money flowing into it, thus EUR weakening, despite the "hopium". Could it be that simple?
  • #12,995
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:30am Dec 2, 2011 5:30am
Quoting michaelnew
... may mean more trust in the USD, thus money flowing into it, thus EUR weakening, despite the "hopium". Could it be that simple?
not so simple.....

the USD still has very crappy returns as far as interest rates is concerned
so with good NFP i doubt we would see an appreciation of USD (no incentive to hold it)

most likely an influx of capital in to equities, driving bond yields up and riskier currencies like the AUD and Euro to appreciate.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #12,996
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:32am Dec 2, 2011 5:32am
knoholygrail this is all good but really can't see this helping for very long. I'm still very bearish.
  • #12,997
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:42am Dec 2, 2011 5:42am
.
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #12,998
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:43am Dec 2, 2011 5:43am
My plan of Trading for today
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  • #12,999
  • Dec 2, 2011 5:59am Dec 2, 2011 5:59am
Daily Back
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #13,000
  • Dec 2, 2011 6:00am Dec 2, 2011 6:00am
Quoting michaelnew
Good NFP numbers may mean more trust in the USD, thus money flowing into it, thus EUR weakening, despite the "hopium". Could it be that simple?
In theory you are correct, but unfortunately the USD doesn't have much to offer for yield seekers and that is really the name of the game.

Those seeking yield in a risk-on environment will most likely prefer to buy the junky European bonds for a better yield rather than US bonds.

In the secondary market, one can buy and sell existing sovereign bonds at will for a profit or loss by trading them with other traders. Therefore, buying a junky bond is not a problem as they are not the ones who will have to wait until maturity risking having to take a haircut. Any time one feels that their trade is at risk, or has gained a few basis points on it for profit, he or she is free to sell it to someone else. It's kind of like buying the Euro on a corrective rally even though the long term outlook is bearish.

Therefore, a good NFP number, although it may very well attract foreign money to USDs to purchase US equities, there will be more yield seeking money flowing out of USD into foreign currencies to buy up non US risk assets... such as junky bonds from the European sovereigns but also from emerging markets.

I hope this helps to properly answer your question.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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