EurAnalysis

It is nice to have you again ... may be this is second time I am requesting you to read the very first page of this thread and then think whether the few lines you add concentrating on the people behavior is okey?

I think being a follower of this thread we should try achieving the goal of this thread ... it is not important here who you are in your surroundings, how much you have achieved in your life and that does not concludes you can pick up anybody in this forum who are pointing out the basics of this thread to you ... and write your few lines (if u read ur lines does it yields anything?)

Charting or visually representing something (your analysis) is important .. it is fine if you are not posting any ... but then post something which is useful ..it is not my demand ... it is demand of this House.

Your post is exactly what I hoped to see. I know that I am very knowledgeable however I know what I do not know completely. It is clear from your post that you have a better understanding of the Option Expiry Factor than I have. Perhaps you could take on the responsibility to update us here from time to time on the subject. I do not have time to learn everything as clear as I want so I understand the basics withour having all the rest of it.

Your feedback will be appreciated.

people take threads too seriously.

and most everyone wants to portray success even if they are shitting themselves on how much they are losing



people are funny like that

Thank you for this kno I've been searching everywhere for this type of info.. You sure its widely available to those that don't have an count with oanda?

I have one now for years and I use their great charts on my third left hand side monitor. I click on news and it opens in my middle monitor and I have a second by second LIVE news feed with incredible instant information.

Since trading is my business I go the extra mile and subscribe to "Trade The News" which is a live Audio feed which is the fastest there is.

I am not promoting their service however I think they still offer a free 30 daqy trial. No credit cards needed. I hope this helps you get the same information as I have.

I'll write something on it later (a couple of days) ...

Ok thank you again I'll have a look and see what can be done It'll be very helpful for me to get it thanks!

1 top Wave and follow by the second lower one

What you are talking about is human nature and pyschology.

When you trade it is best if you do not see it as money being traded.

This might sound silly on the surface however it is really true.

I trade trying very hard not to see it as money won or money lost.

I see it a a score card on my total day of trading.

If I see it as money whether won or lost my emotions take over and my decisions become faulty.

When I have losses it means the trade was wrong and I take my loss. STOP LOSS ALWAYS takes out some of the emotions.

I used to have drawdowns of $25,000 US and HOPE it would reverse.

Anyone been there ? Smile !!!

When you take the emotions out and surely hard to do you become aq better trader.

RISE MOFU RISE!!!



covered top hgih left 2 lower..

now at +120.. was at +170 previously.

Pefect perfect setup. Price/time at its best

(why isnt eu rising)

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading
Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, treaders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.

Reckon here

am enter the right circle one once am detect the formation
so sometimes am not buying above resistance or sell below the support
Now we are going second resistance 1.2964,need to clear that level in order to going more upside

Lets zoom out
We break the triangle and found strong resistance @ 1.2964
Honestly this kind of PA would breaking upside,now we are retest again,we might dancing/consolidate first before going further

"BUT" again
There is no Sure/100% Moves
So always trade with cautious

I'm in Bro...

Edit: Strong R at 60 level...

after am enter one position am would switch to daily to decide am will hold or not in the mid term,
keep watching the PA and am always switch my SL @ BE once the moves going in my favour,Its not because am not confident with my analysis but its because am avoid unexcpeted thing to happening

Happy New Year and keep learning and your trading will improve.