EurAnalysis

Take a look on gold / other commodities exported from Australia from time to time; they should influence AUD, and they are not performing as good as 2 weeks ago. Still agree, that it will be pulled by EUR. Its just that maybe some other risk currencies may get pulled more.

H1 forms doji.

Change of plan crossover on the M5 and price failed to climb above the 10lwma on M15 short on eur/usd and eur/jpy!

If Tom keeps his profitability till the end of the month, half of the forum will start considering to use "Short-Like-A-Moron" system. Tom, if you could get paid for others using your SLAM system, you would be rich soon

10 Year bond yields reported earlier today

France 3.62%
Belgium 5.21%
Italy 6.87%
Spain 6.68%

ADD: For the latest 10Y gov bond yields, go to http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Marke...t-Bond-Spreads

Oktober open was 3357, i think we should get there , please

Alorente

You have strong convictions concerning direction using your technical methods and guidelines. I am not posting this to tell you that you are wrong or should change anything you do.

I am a very strong fundamental trader with a excellent understanding of human nature. I definitely use technicals to see the support and resistance and the pyschology of the market.

I have been out of the market all in cash so I have a clear mind and no bias. I have an opinion for sure that the EUR/USD pair is heading down. As PipTrapper mentioned earlier he traded through the September 2008 period as I did. I remember that the EUR/USD had just hit it's all time high just over 1.6000 and after the Lehman debacle it went to 1.5000 where I told my client that I would be shocked if it broke 1.5000

At 1.2500 there was no more shock just amazement. That was a great trading lesson for me.

Whether you have a fundamental bias or a technical bias the market is ALWAYS RIGHT until it is wrong.

Correct me if I am wrong or you disagree Technicals represent the pulse of the market or the pyschology of the masses at that EXACT second.

The point that I am making for everyone here whether a technical trader or a fundamental trader or a combination of both is that we are now in another 2008 moment and no human can predict what will happen. Even the Powers that be have little long term power. Yes they can and do INTERVENE however that is only short term.

It is very dangerous to your financial welfare to ASSUME that because your technicals show divergenge or whatever that it will go long. It might go long however that is not the point. Trading forex should not be gambling forex.

Just imagine that Germany announces they are considering a major change concerning the Euro ? You will see EUR/USD down 500 PIPS in a New York Minute.

We are in the middle of the Europe Crisis, The USA Crisis and to top it all off as relates to CONFIDENCE there appears to be MISSING One Billion 200 Million in MF Global customer funds.

It is accepted myth or reality that 90% to 95% of all forex traders lose.

What puts someone in the 5% to 10% category ? I can answer that very clearly and very strongly since I am in that category so my comments are not theory.

I would guess that 75% of all forex traders trade mainly using technicals.

Some of those may be winners however it is more likely they win because they have good maturity as it relates to FEAR, GREED and EGO.

PipTrapper trades short at the moment and he enters at the TOP of the range or tries to. He is a fundamental and technical trader and has good human skills so he wins in forex or should. I mention PipTrapper only in the context of a good example of the point that I make.

Assumptions now either technicals or fundamentals are not a good idea.

The playing field is changing and NONE OF US know if it is only a 50 Yard field or a 150 Yard field.

The DUST has not settled.

EUR/USD is now at 1.3390 and it may TEST 1.3000 or bounce to 1.3600

The MARKET will detemine that and none of us know for sure. Especially at present time.

If the Dow goes down 500 more points the only safe haven for now is the US Bonds which will strengthen the US Dollar. If the Dow goes UP 500 points EUR/USD will go up.

CONCLUSION NO CHART and NO FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION can tell us today if either happens however the MONEY FLOW as it does happen will change EVERY CHART out there and the price of ALL the Asset Classes.

Knowing this gives an EDGE to any trader out there.

The post is my strong position on trading forex. We are all entitled to our opinion and if you make at least 5% profit each and every month do not change anything. If you lose most months for whatever reason you might want to consider changing your methods.

For myself as much fun as I have if I was losing money most of the time I would just move on and do something else that suited my skills better.

This is a business to make money. If you see it any other way then you will not make money. This is a very difficult business and that is why only a few can win in it.

I hope my post is helpful and it is taken in a positive way even if you have different opinion or CONVICTION than myself. I wanted to take the time this morning to share my thoughts before I head out today working on other business matters until the markets calm down and I understand better the NEW PLAYING FIELD.

Have a good trading day and take care.

I just heard on CNBC TV that the ECB released a statement saying that the dismal 1.1 bid to cover ratio on the German Bund auction was not a reflection of the demand but rather a result of a technical problem with the bidding system.

Yeah right. Nice try ECB. The market will not buy it. If anything now they will dump more assets seeing as you feel it necessary to lie. It sure means it is time to run and hide. Anyone remember the Iraqi DOI officer who said all is well while the American forces were bombing Baghdad? Spin doctors

I think it's the end of euro days. I leave in France near Paris and I'm really afraid for the 2012 year...

.

Divergence is one of the better technical indications of a trend reversal. It is created when the momentum of each successive wave of a trend gets weaker and weaker. Most people read divergence off of a technical indicator.

You can also read divergence in PA without indicators though. Trend lines get shallower and shallower, trend lines in the opposite direction appear and each higher high is closer to the high below it. Further price action will become choppy in nature, as it struggles to go up and fails.

What your indicators wont tell you is if a significant barrier has been breached, the manner of its breach, the heaviness of price action and response (or lack of) at a major S&R. This is why I prefer price action... more information, no lag time and all the information in one place.

The key assumption when you trade with divergence is that the trend has reached the end and is now reversing. So you are trading against the trend in the TF that the divergence appears in.

Just checked on the ECB's SMP ad-hoc communication.

It see4m the amount used to buy Italian and Spanish bonds that is yet to be sterilized has increased once again to €194.5 Billion from €187 Billion

It has been going up every week since May and it keeps getting bigger and bigger.

very good post and informative post.... Specifically with regard to eur/usd - I entered long at 3381 with a TP of 3396. I am happy say my TP was hit after 31mins :-)

RESPECTFULLY,

Remember, there are many ways to skin a cat.

STRICTLY technical trades DO serve well when scalping a market.

As you just said, the market determines whether your strategy is correct or not. I think it is wonderful you are in cash, however, I have increased my account by 10% this month alone, and make choices to get in or get out based on my analysis, not on anything someone else decides is right for them or feel is right for me.

I traded back in 2008, and a bastard it was, but proper money management, sound fundamental and technical analysis, and EXPERIENCE, allows for one to trade in current market conditions.

To each his own, live and let live, etc.

I am an hopeless optimist, even in the face of diversity, call it Karma, or what have you but if market tells me to sell, I sell, if it tells me to buy, I buy.( Sounds Like Forrest Gump)
As far as all the so-called experts making calls for 5-10K gold.......go for it as I may find an opportunity to short it and pick their pockets. It may get there, it may not, but there will be a plethora(cool word) of trade opportunities between now and then. I use precious alloys, and sent my scrap in at $1900 mark, and said time to short gold....it was.

The point I make is the field of vision of the trader is like different time frames on charts, what you see or trade at any given time is based upon the scope of your field of vision.

Well enough verbosity.
Good luck to you in your trading, and thanks again for your contributions to the thread!

BTW- closed Aussie long at .09751 for 25 pips due to reverse bearish divergence on the THV3 on a 5 minute chart.
Some people use a telescope to trade, some use a microscope!

Remember that in about 45 minutes from now, we have all of this week's US econ data being released early due to the upcoming holidays.

Watch for numbers that are significantly above or below expectation as it may change the dynamics going into the close which may set the tone for tomorrow's and Friday's low volume market.

It will be intresting, if they start buying German Bonds. Will that leads to biger volatility? or the rise (probably only short term during auction) or fall of Euro?

My opinion: Technicals work best with a microscope. The problems come in when the same technicals are analyzed with a telescope.

The reason for that is that the technicals are a representation of what has already happened to price. They only work as a predictor of what is going to happen for the sole and simple reason that they are used as such and trades are executed based on them. However, when the fundamentals are so strongly pointing in a specific direction (Just like your realization that it was time to short gold), you have to limit your use of technicals to choosing optimal entry and exit points.

Chart Is The Best

If it comes to the point where the ECB has to buy German Bunds, then Germany will give in and allow the ECB to print. Germany is only opposed to printing now because THEY don't need it. Their fear of hyperinflation is BS. Anybody with half a brain today knows that printing does not lead to hyperinflation if managed and governed.

example: If you broke several bones by jumping off a cliff, then you have learned to not jump off a cliff. So next time you need to get to the bottom, do you refuse to go down at all, or do you use a rope and lower yourself down slowly and safely? Using Germany's current excuse, they are deciding to not go down. That is irrational.

EUR/JPY is also sitting at key support.
This is now starting to look like a holding pattern.
US econ data and New York's reaction to it will now set the tone for the rest of the week.

E/J H4 chart