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EUR/CHF

  • #2,301
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:37pm Jan 16, 2012 3:37pm
i agree, though you would expect more buyers. I think some of the big hedge funds got their asses kicked last time and aren't so sure now.
  • #2,302
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:40pm Jan 16, 2012 3:40pm
this last move looks like dollar strength.
  • #2,303
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:42pm Jan 16, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting werido
this last move looks like dollar strength.

how we want to measure chf weakeness....??

just see the chart chf/jpy ...
Bismillah
  • #2,304
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:59pm Jan 16, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting PipHacker
Hi Guy's,
AnyBody trading this Pair?

Yes. Looking at the candle bars, it hit resistance twice. I believe everyone is about to sell. It looks to be a strong downtrend.
  • #2,305
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:06pm Jan 16, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting Kas1
Scenario
in short from here
  • #2,306
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:09pm Jan 16, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting Kas1
in short from here
good luck. sl 1.3
  • #2,307
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:15pm Jan 16, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting werido
the strong chf makes their exports MORE expensive
Swissy has depreciated something like 30%?40%? since September...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,308
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:16pm Jan 16, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting forexsaint
"First PA then TA then FA then BS...and if that doesn't work try again in reverse order..."

Very Interesting siggy.
thanks. I am really good at the BS but working hard at the other three.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,309
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:17pm Jan 16, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting AaronWard
Swissy has depreciated something like 30%?40%? since September...
thats why it is the most overvalue currency in the world..hehe
Bismillah
  • #2,310
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:13pm Jan 16, 2012 5:13pm
Why some traders do not realize that USD has almost no issues to Swiss economy. They are in the mid of Europe, surrounded by a single currency, and almost all of their exports target European markets (swiss watches and cheese are not everything that they have to offer.) Even if you are a tourist from States, when using local ATM, most likely bank will first exchange currency from USD to EUR and then from EUR to Frank - standard procedure.

Think of Mexico or Panama - if they ever worried about need to do fx intervention, how much they would focus on stability of EUR? Not much, and Mexico already exports large % of goods to Europe in comparison to Swiss to US.

Look at the chart - EURCHF is flat because the big money is uncertain what to do. USDCHF in comparison can move easily by hundred pips a day in any direction.
  • #2,311
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:35pm Jan 16, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting AaronWard
Swissy has depreciated something like 30%?40%? since September...
You are comapring price wher CHF was for about 3 days. This is not significant time span to be talking about depreciation.
  • #2,312
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:33pm Jan 16, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting maciejburno

Look at the chart - EURCHF is flat because the big money is uncertain what to do. USDCHF in comparison can move easily by hundred pips a day in any direction.
u must understand the behavior of traders....

there are not concern about usd/chf.....but there are more concern about eur/chf......

same like yen now....traders are more concern about usd/jpy....

is usd jpy move 100 pips because of usd?hahaha absolutely not...but euro jpy yes.....hahah

we must understand the behavior first
Bismillah
  • #2,313
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:48pm Jan 16, 2012 10:48pm
Quoting krunfx
u must understand the behavior of traders....

there are not concern about usd/chf.....but there are more concern about eur/chf......

same like yen now....traders are more concern about usd/jpy....

is usd jpy move 100 pips because of usd?hahaha absolutely not...but euro jpy yes.....hahah

we must understand the behavior first

????
  • #2,314
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:14pm Jan 16, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting izzas
????

hahha not understand?
Bismillah
  • #2,315
  • Edited 3:09am Jan 17, 2012 2:20am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting alter
You are comapring price wher CHF was for about 3 days. This is not significant time span to be talking about depreciation.
EDIT: you are quite right.

I agree that the CHF was extemely overvalued while the E/U was trading at 1.40.

I also agree that the CHF is overvalued if the E/U is trading at 1.27.

When the E/U hits parity... probably just about right.

As for what I believe ... I believe that the SNB will probably hold the ceiling as long as inflation remains low. They may raise it, but I doubt they will do that until the E/Us downtrend does a clear reversal.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,316
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:30am Jan 17, 2012 2:30am
Quoting AaronWard
I agree that the CHF was extemely overvalued while the E/U was trading at 1.40.

I also agree that the CHF is overvalued if the E/U is trading at 1.27.

When the E/U hits parity... probably just about right.

As for what I believe ... I believe that the SNB will probably hold the ceiling as long as inflation remains low. They may raise it, but I doubt they will do that until the E/Us downtrend does a clear reversal.

Bismillah
  • #2,317
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:32am Jan 17, 2012 5:32am
Quoting tuvok
On the contrary - tonight is the perfect time to intervention. Liquidity is negligible so it would be very easy for SNB to push eurchf very high. I would be very suprised if it won't happen tonight because it would mean they are waiting to the last moment - maybe even to sub 1.2020 rates. I don't see any reasonable reason to wait for such a rates but maybe SNB does...
Bet you're pretty surprised ;-)
  • #2,318
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:43am Jan 17, 2012 5:43am
In the meantime before intervention you can read interesting article
  • #2,319
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:57am Jan 17, 2012 5:57am
The trading version of Waiting for Goddot is called The Crowded House, to many assuming things that will -or won´t- eventualy happen but with little sense of timing... and this mkt will arrive on time... not the timing traders are expecting here.
  • #2,320
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:15am Jan 17, 2012 6:15am
IS IT SNB?
Bismillah
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