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EUR/CHF

  • #2,281
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:43am Jan 16, 2012 11:43am
Quoting SIgurs
The SNB will not raise the peg as long as the EU keeps on struggling with its debt crisis ( which could take months/years). They aint suicidal.

1.20 is all they can "safely" handle for the time being.
I agree.

As long as the euro is collapsing, dragging the swissy with it, the price of everything that is sold in usd (ie goods from China, oil, etc) is getting more expensive. At the same time everything they sell to the larger world (such as banking services to Indians, Americans and Chinese) is getting cheaper, quickly. Things are going exactly they way the want them to, and quickly.

They are not going to raise the ceiling until it looks like the euro is not going to fall any more. Then they will make a decision based upon inflation.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,282
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:44am Jan 16, 2012 11:44am
In reference to my previous post,
EURCHF has hit a new 16-Weekly low @ 1.2061
1.2050+/- 5 zone was not hit....to be exact.
Looking at the PA down here...
IMO,
- 1.2044 is next .
- As before, 1.2020 thereafter, if breaks above without much hesitation
- Next "MAY" be a Peg retest.
- To be "sanely" logical enough, No shorts for me below 1.2050's, except if i hear a POLICY/Stance change.
- Those Shorting here @ sub 1.2060's with big/no stops prolly should get ready to get their "lower-mid-Posterior region" kicked.....HARD....... sooner or later!
- Multiple-Buy-limits-zone lowered a bit to range of .. sub-1.2045 to sub-1.20

Lets WaitnWatch



P.S. Sometimes amusing to read different views around. NOT from SNB, but would advise to keep the BIGGER picture in mind!
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,283
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:45am Jan 16, 2012 11:45am
Quoting SIgurs
The SNB will not raise the peg as long as the EU keeps on struggling with its debt crisis ( which could take months/years). They aint suicidal.

1.20 is all they can "safely" handle for the time being.
I think the euro crisis isn't the big issue for them. Sure they'd be buying euros which might devalue, but intervention is just that, it's goal is to get their currency to where it helps the economy. What happens to the euro outside of eurchf may or may not weaken it. The euro could fall against the dollar, and the dollar could thus get strengthened against the chf, which would weaken the chf and may raise eurchf as usdchf rises. Euro stability is just a small part of the intervention. usdchf has plenty room to rise to offset a falling euro. They aren't buying greek bonds here. This isn't like they are throwing money away. Even if euro goes down, they will have helped their deflation risks nonetheless.
They have to focus on their economy, not the euro's.
  • #2,284
  • Jan 16, 2012 12:04pm Jan 16, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting AaronWard
I agree.

As long as the euro is collapsing, dragging the swissy with it, the price of everything that is sold in usd (ie goods from China, oil, etc) is getting more expensive. At the same time everything they sell to the larger world (such as banking services to Indians, Americans and Chinese) is getting cheaper, quickly. Things are going exactly they way the want them to, and quickly.

They are not going to raise the ceiling until it looks like the euro is not going to fall any more. Then they will make a decision based upon inflation.
the strong chf makes their exports MORE expensive
  • #2,285
  • Jan 16, 2012 12:12pm Jan 16, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting werido
I think the euro crisis isn't the big issue for them.
They have to focus on their economy, not the euro's.
Imho, you're way off base here. They pegged the Chf to the Euro because it IS a big issue for them, they are part of the European continent, surrounded by the largest common market in the world. So, yes the Euro/EU is of the utmost importance to the Swiss.

If the above were not the case they would have pegged it to the Usd/Yuan/Jpy or ....
  • #2,286
  • Jan 16, 2012 12:24pm Jan 16, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting SIgurs
Imho, you're way off base here. They pegged the Chf to the Euro because it IS a big issue for them, they are part of the European continent, surrounded by the largest common market in the world. So, yes the Euro/EU is of the utmost importance to the Swiss.

If the above were not the case they would have pegged it to the Usd/Yuan/Jpy or ....
Of course eurchf is the most important. eurusd is not. That is what I'm saying; the eurozone crisis outside of eurchf isn't that important because they can offset it's decline elsewhere to raise eurchf. The eurozone crisis is just a small part of their currency issues. usd is just as big. the fluctuations in the market good or bad don't have a guaranteed outcome on eurchf. They don't need a stable eurozone to weaken chf against it. If the euro improves, but the dollar slides, the eurchf could again go down. eurozone is just something they have to deal with but it's not what would prevent them from doing what they need for their own economy. if eurchf goes down, they don't care that the eurozone is now AAA, eurchf is eurchf and that if it's down, exports to eur will be expensive, local deflation could spiral, etc. They have many tools to set eurchf with or without a eurozone crisis
  • #2,287
  • Jan 16, 2012 12:52pm Jan 16, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting werido
Of course eurchf is the most important. eurusd is not. That is what I'm saying; the eurozone crisis outside of eurchf isn't that important because they can offset it's decline elsewhere to raise eurchf. The eurozone crisis is just a small part of their currency issues. usd is just as big. the fluctuations in the market good or bad don't have a guaranteed outcome on eurchf. They don't need a stable eurozone to weaken chf against it. If the euro improves, but the dollar slides, the eurchf could again go down. eurozone is just something they have to...
Do you really expect them to raise the floor to 1.30 despite EU problems ?
I dont !
  • #2,288
  • Jan 16, 2012 12:53pm Jan 16, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting SIgurs
Do you really expect them to raise the floor to 1.30 despite EU problems ?
I dont !
me too
  • #2,289
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:00pm Jan 16, 2012 1:00pm
The Swiss economy has now a lot more to lose with a strong chf. Their banking industry is now in question because of their first releasing u.s. citizen banking data to the u.s. government, what they called an emergency measure, and now a scandal in the Swiss national bank involving the president himself. If they don't defend the peg, they may lose a lot of credibility in their banking in general since it's already very much in question.
  • #2,290
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:02pm Jan 16, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting AaronWard
I agree.
...
"First PA then TA then FA then BS...and if that doesn't work try again in reverse order..."

Very Interesting siggy.
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,291
  • Jan 16, 2012 1:07pm Jan 16, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting SIgurs
Do you really expect them to raise the floor to 1.30 despite EU problems ?
I dont !
yes because usdchf is historically low and has plenty of room on the up side, which will only help them too. they should diversify and sell chf to usd which would offset a weak eurusd. they can get to 1.4 easy with a horrific euro crisis
  • #2,292
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:13pm Jan 16, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting xivh
(...) personally I donīt think there will be intervention this week, and maybe even next week, hope Iīm wrong in that one though, anybody has some thoughts on this?
On the contrary - tonight is the perfect time to intervention. Liquidity is negligible so it would be very easy for SNB to push eurchf very high. I would be very suprised if it won't happen tonight because it would mean they are waiting to the last moment - maybe even to sub 1.2020 rates. I don't see any reasonable reason to wait for such a rates but maybe SNB does...
  • #2,293
  • Jan 16, 2012 3:57pm Jan 16, 2012 3:57pm
Both pairs are in love so much that they will meet together at some stage.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overlay 2.gif Size: 152 KB



  • #2,294
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:03pm Jan 16, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Both pairs are in love so much that they will meet together at some stage.
Attachment


r u looking at monthly charts for real? I guess the way some of these pairs trade you gotta right. maybe place 1 trade every 12 years or so....
  • #2,295
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:13pm Jan 16, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting tuvok
On the contrary - tonight is the perfect time to intervention. Liquidity is negligible so it would be very easy for SNB to push eurchf very high. I would be very suprised if it won't happen tonight because it would mean they are waiting to the last moment - maybe even to sub 1.2020 rates. I don't see any reasonable reason to wait for such a rates but maybe SNB does...
Swiss CB intervening in the middle of the night ? Seems highly unlikely to me.
  • #2,296
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:29pm Jan 16, 2012 4:29pm
Well, everybody is expecting SNB to intervene and possibly set up a new peg.
So traders and funds should be aware of going short. Everybody is long and EUR/CHF still going short, something strange about that.
The problem is - no new SNB chairman
- eurozone problems
- SNB is independent, no politicians cannot
force them to set up new peg
- exporters can hedge
- last economic news not so bad, better than EU
- uptrend in usd/chf

And after all current peg may be withdrawn and SNB can still defend 1.20.
Possible scenario for next months: If we test 1.20 SNB will act and send rate to range 1.2050 - 1.22. So no big move what we waiting for, but boring situation.
  • #2,297
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:30pm Jan 16, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting werido
r u looking at monthly charts for real? I guess the way some of these pairs trade you gotta right. maybe place 1 trade every 12 years or so....
Always interested to look at all time frames especially pairs that trade in extremes.
Fundamentals will start to play out in those areas.
Patience is gold.
  • #2,298
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:10pm Jan 16, 2012 5:10pm
look at the chart now. Chf falls sharply
  • #2,299
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:30pm Jan 16, 2012 5:30pm
new floor 1.21
  • #2,300
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:33pm Jan 16, 2012 5:33pm
SNB likely to lift EUR/CHF floor to 1.3000 - UBS
Bismillah
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