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  • #4,941
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:30am Oct 6, 2011 5:30am
Quoting VEEFX
perhaps stating the obvious, but here's my 2 cents...

I think engulf bar is a bit overrated. There is almost always a retrace on the next candle just like most other candlestick patterns. Some weird ones also end up in complete 180 degree reversals!

To me, it makes more sense to always watch and wait for retrace instead of opening a probe right upon candle close.

Some core facts that applies to any chart/instrument:
- Open any chart and you will see more wicks all over the place compared to full body bars, inside bars, engulf bar,...

Short & Sweet
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #4,942
  • Edited 3:43pm Oct 7, 2011 12:54pm | Edited 3:43pm
How do we stay with the current weekly flow?

Greame said he BUYS if its UP and SELLS if its down, but he wants to make sure he stays with the current weekly flow

Here is my implementation.
.
here is my implementation of that statement.

So I looked at where price is compare to the weekly open then at the daily open ... if both are in agreement at a certain time during the trading day, preferable at market open, I'll place an order in the direction of the weekly and daily flow,both have to agree.

I'll will leave my stop at the current high or low.
I have two shots everyday( sometimes I dont have to shoot)
if I see my positions die...at day end then I will attempt the next day.
If it survived at the end of the day I will BE and my job is done.
With this simple rule I have achieved.

a. No over trading.
b. limit my loss
c. Growing my positions in the weekly direction
d. less screen time.
e. this keeps me out of daily retracements back to weekly open
f. capital preservation
g. participation
h. filters daily ranging markets.
i. Getting the inevitable volatile breakout where price never comes back.


So. Market Open: Daily.

on the Daily, I have 2 attempts.
sometimes I will enter at market open with a fix stoploss. I'll checkin later
maybe during the London or US session, if the position dies I will re-enter in the chosen direction
See we have no idea where to market will take us , so I'm following the weekly flow by entering on the daily.

So What about Candles and PA, S/R.?
Well, I see the wick, and the doji and all those. But in the market there are 3 things you can to do to protect or manage or demonstrate some control over your positions.

1. B/E
2. Take profit( full or partial)
3. Close positions.

these actions are humans taking control ( we all like being in control).
So I choose to B/E and the market will decide if it lives.
Now if you are looking for profit today then #1 is not for you, but if you see the 1000 pips coming then just B/E.

Back to the wicks and the Candle formations.
Wicks are the main indicators that tells where weaknesses are, in contrast full candles tells where strength are.
so choose a currency that have weekly prices moving in one direction and closing in the other direction at extremes or a full bodied candle, also look for prices beaking out of the range on the weekly.

Daily prices are just noise in the big picture.
A day can be up, down or ranging.

Once at B/E what to do?

I will keep positions open and in line with the monthly flow.. and
close position once my target is acheived.
it's fun taking small losses, and rewarding to see pips grow.


SIDE NOTE ABOUT CANDLES, BARS, S/R

I ask myself honestly...if there was only line charts available how can i be a currency trader or a trader for that matter without knowing about
Hammers, doji, and other patterns.

I close my eyes and think it's gotta be price, where is price heading in the longterm and when and how to buy and sell, limiting my risk in the process.

so I have to keep track of where is price NOW compare to the market open PLUS this week open before I add risk.

This is just my take.

Pls share yours
  • #4,943
  • Oct 8, 2011 1:50am Oct 8, 2011 1:50am
Quoting chips
How do we stay with the current weekly flow?

Greame said he BUYS if its UP and SELLS if its down, but he wants to make sure he stays with the current weekly flow

Here is my implementation.
.
here is my implementation of that statement.

So I looked at where price is compare to the weekly open then at the daily open ... if both are in agreement at a certain time during the trading day, preferable at market open, I'll place an order in the direction of the weekly and daily flow,both have to agree.

I'll will leave my stop at...
Great post! Really enjoyed the clarity and simplicity! Could I ask one thing: when you mention "market open" do you mean Asia open?
  • #4,944
  • Oct 8, 2011 6:25am Oct 8, 2011 6:25am
Hi Guys,

Sorry to diverge from the current flow of topic.Does anyone know of a program to build statistical knowledge on pairs?.Graham mentioned he knows his statisics well and i would like to do the same.however i am not very technical on mt4 ,ea s ect.I ve been collating data oldschool with a pen and paper but im sure there is a quicker way to build a statistical edge

Any advice gladly appreciated


pips a lot
  • #4,945
  • Oct 8, 2011 9:03am Oct 8, 2011 9:03am
Quoting SirPips alot
Hi Guys,

Sorry to diverge from the current flow of topic.Does anyone know of a program to build statistical knowledge on pairs?.Graham mentioned he knows his statisics well and i would like to do the same.however i am not very technical on mt4 ,ea s ect.I ve been collating data oldschool with a pen and paper but im sure there is a quicker way to build a statistical edge

Any advice gladly appreciated


pips a lot
what he means with 'i know my statistic' is his own trade statistic. this trade statistic developes in time while you are trading consistelntly a system or method.
if u use mt4 then link your account to myfxbook.com . there are many trading statistics offered for free.
what could help with pair (EURUSD) statistic is: the weekly high/low you got mostly at friday or monday. look at the 1 hour chart and see how (micro-)trend changes at beggining or end of week.
monthly lows/highs are mostly at the beginning or ending month. because there are the big traders involved and fundamentals playing a higher role.
the intraday lows/highs which holds over 24h are made mostly during london-session if in the new york session no high impact news occure and if in asian session was not an impulsive movement.

hope this helps

Mediator
  • #4,946
  • Oct 8, 2011 11:59am Oct 8, 2011 11:59am
Quoting gssintokyo
Great post! Really enjoyed the clarity and simplicity! Could I ask one thing: when you mention "market open" do you mean Asia open?
Market open is Asia open. But notice also most days price goes back to the Asian open. But if today is going to be an up day. Then price should not make a new low during the London/US session and vice versa.
  • #4,947
  • Edited 1:45pm Oct 8, 2011 12:20pm | Edited 1:45pm
To my last post.

I'm, practicing implementing, adding soldiers, and after 1 year staying with Graeme and Price Action.

We will all agree that leaving positions in the market to grow is the most effective method to succeed.

To tell the truth, it's harder said than done. Most of this is a mental state issue
We all have to get to that place where entering becomes apart of US, where we know we have to participate and there's no emotions. Because we can tolerate the risk.

SO I BUY if Price is UP and SELL if its DOWN.

Do we Sell after price close down or Buy if price close up.?
Its all in ones own interpretation.

I follow this concept by buying on the daily with the current weekly flow.


There are days when prices or trends gets exhausted and its reflected in the candle patterns during the middle of the week. There's no way of really telling that price will change trend.

But once this is noticed you can be aggressive by entering in the desired direction and hopefully the position will survive the days volatility just to bring to BE and the Job is done.

Or conservative trader will wait for price to move above or below the weekly open before starting to probe.

really the end goal to get to a point where you can BE the position.

HOW DO I ENTER EXACTLY.
FISRTLY
Try not to be fixated and force the entry exactly at the open. if you have time monitor the retracement. Once price moves in your desired direction go the with flow.

I practice telling myself that my profit does not lie in the next 100pips or 200pips
so I don't get anxious, if anything I expect my entry to die, but my risk is small so it remains insignificant and the market wasn't ready to reward my actions and move in the weekly direction.

Entering is based on time, risks tolerance, price location and account size.

There is no wrong or right way with this method or adding positions.
One have to figure this out based on his own perception and the elements above

Example. Well all know that during the US session price tends to close the day in the current direction, most times. So this might be away of entering and position and moving it to BE in the desired weekly direction.

There are ways of moving down to smaller time frames and adding a position in order to minimize risk.
This takes you closer to price fluctuations so chances are your position will die, but your risk is so small it's insignificant. This also requires PA skill and screen time.

Most times you will find that your positions die at BE, but that's a winner because we have achieved our goal.


This is just my take.

Others should share how they are implementing the perception of BUY if UP AND SELL IF DOWN.
  • #4,948
  • Oct 8, 2011 2:30pm Oct 8, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting chips
To my last post.

I'm, practicing implementing, adding soldiers, and after 1 year staying with Graeme and Price Action.

We will all agree that leaving positions in the market to grow is the most effective method to succeed.

To tell the truth, it's harder said than done. Most of this is a mental state issue
We all have to get to that place where entering becomes apart of US, where we know we have to participate and there's no emotions. Because we can tolerate the risk.

SO I BUY if Price is UP and SELL if its DOWN.

[u][b]Do...
Good posts.......nice to see someone else reiterate Graeme's approach to markets.

If I may ask to share your trading stats,longest position in pips and duration, how many legs, drawdown, position size,etc etc, assuming you are trading live, that would really put icing on this delicious cake with millipede on top.:-))
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,949
  • Edited 1:04pm Oct 9, 2011 10:35am | Edited 1:04pm
Hello Chips

thanks for sharing, you seem to have a plan that works stick to it.

Quoting chips
How do we stay with the current weekly flow?

Greame said he BUYS if its UP and SELLS if its down, but he wants to make sure he stays with the current weekly flow

He also says to look at the last 20-40 weekly bars for direction.

So. Market Open: Daily.

I have 2-3 attempts daily.
Due to screen time I have an EA enter a buy and a sell for me daily with a fixed stop.
I also use .00 method mentioned by Graeme, this would be my second entry on any given day.
I use PSAR S/R for my 3rd entry or trend add-ons.
I bring all trades to BE once they are 50 pips in my favour.
Once they hit 100 pips profit I closed 50% to satisfy the little men in my head.
when my Stacks are up 2500-5000 pips I diversify.

So What about Candles and PA, S/R.?
[color=Blue]This...
  • #4,950
  • Oct 9, 2011 12:55pm Oct 9, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting VEEFX
Good posts.......nice to see someone else reiterate Graeme's approach to markets.

If I may ask to share your trading stats,longest position in pips and duration, how many legs, drawdown, position size,etc etc, assuming you are trading live, that would really put icing on this delicious cake with millipede on top.:-))
Thanks VEE for acknowledging my post. I have gathered so much information from you and others here, which helps me to eliminate or incorporate some technical aspects.

As for stats, I would rather not share any such stats here because I know the effect stats have on readers. Basically, people tries to replicate stats and not focus on the method and this will derail the mental focus.
At least that's what i tried to do when I started , even now I'm still battling with trades other people made with a short term gain then I questioned my entries.

I only would say this, that when I finally figure out months ago I was able to BUY when traders were buying and Sell when everyone was selling. I took some losses buy I witness pips in the thousands far greater than the losses. I was able to build multiple positions on the recent EURUSD downward move.
  • #4,951
  • Edited Oct 10, 2011 2:05am Oct 9, 2011 2:36pm | Edited Oct 10, 2011 2:05am
I have taken so much away from this forum, I just thought I should share my perception and implementation of the millipede


So on a typical day This is what I asked myself.

I take a look at a daily candle forming on a given day. AT a certain time during the day you can tell who is in control and how the candle will close.
Now, at that specific time do you wait for it to close or do you joint the group that is in control.

I asked myself how can I participate with low risk?

I will monitor the direction of price, if it flips in my desired direction I will enter with my stop above/below the high/low of the current day.

See, if its going to be an UP day then price should not make a lower low after certain time during the trading day and VICE VERSA.

I will check in during the London/US session on the my position, if it was taken out, I will monitor for a possible reversal.

I like days that move up and turn around. These days I will enter with others. See if sellers are willing to take price lower I want to be selling because this could be the next huge move down.
You will see this on the daily charts if you check your charts couple hours before the end to the US session.


Entry is relative, I have two shots so I have to choose correct time.
Checking in is relative depending on the time of the entry.

NOTE: WHEN price close it means that traders holding positions are committed to the price and direction in line with the weekly.

Some days I will enter with the committed traders close to the end of the day ( staying with price flow) which is the US Session for me. I have witnessed positions on these days exploded to huge gains and I was able to BE with little effort.

Most times with these positions I will monitor the retracements. Retracements to and past 50% of the previous day does not make a for a good hold for positions.But I will hold on to my risk, because I know I will have another shot later.

I always take into account the trading time and sessions that have historical data on volatility.

Capital.

Initial investments is risk capital. Expense capital or position capital.

I dont know how else to explain it. This capital is solely for using to establish positions and nothing more. But you want to preserve it so when the huge move comes you are not left hanging.
So that's why participation is key at low risk.
The real balance in your account will have huge impact on your trading, both if the bal is growing or depleting.
This is the hardest part...( There is no single way of dealing with this and I'm personally struggling with this aspect)

The bal will go down but ultimately if you participate the market always reward you, if you are selling when sellers are the masses and buying when the masses are buying

SIDE NOTE

Everyone will have their own type/style of entry.
lets hear what you are doing for entering based on

BUY if UP, SELL if DOWN with the weekly trend

Many thanks to Everyone here at FF and Greame.
  • #4,952
  • Edited 2:59am Oct 10, 2011 2:42am | Edited 2:59am
Quoting chips
Thanks VEE for acknowledging my post. I have gathered so much information from you and others here, which helps me to eliminate or incorporate some technical aspects.

As for stats, I would rather not share any such stats here because I know the effect stats have on readers. Basically, people tries to replicate stats and not focus on the method and this will derail the mental focus.
At least that's what i tried to do when I started , even now I'm still battling with trades other people made with a short term gain then I questioned my entries.

I...
Hi Chip,

We have had few traders post their exciting performance with screenshots of long running legs/positions in the distant past (including me!). If I am not mistaken, NO one including those 2-3 traders acknowledged by Graeme who have found their success have ever posted their live or demo trading stats to help us understand what it takes to implement this approach and to learn from their experience. I personally don't care much around their entries levels or number of legs or % profit or total floating pips or to get in a 'measuring' contest with anyone here.

I am still participating here for the following three fundamental reasons in the order of importance:

- Minimize drawdowns (not just account balance drawdown but account equity drawdown as well !)
- Consistency
- 50+% confidence level that most trades will go in my intended direction upon entry.

If you have accomplished single digit drawdowns trading on daily TF, kudos to you my friend. I tried daily open entries for over 5-6 months starting late last year (thinking razor sharp entries should not matter) and experienced 15+% drawdown. Hence my curiosity.

There is also an element of luck involved which one must filter from their stats during drawdown analysis imho. Anyways, just wanted to share the underlying reasons behind my request.

Please keeping share your thoughts and insights as I hope to eventually spend less time posting on this thread/forum.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,953
  • Oct 10, 2011 6:52am Oct 10, 2011 6:52am
Quoting VEEFX
I am still participating here for the following three fundamental reasons in the order of importance:

- Minimize drawdowns (not just account balance drawdown but account equity drawdown as well !)
- Consistency
- 50+% confidence level that most trades will go in my intended direction upon entry.
Hi Vee,

Can you clarify how participating here would help you achieve those three goals ?

Regards,

Cam
  • #4,954
  • Edited 8:59am Oct 10, 2011 8:44am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi Chip,


Please keeping share your thoughts and insights as I hope to eventually spend less time posting on this thread/forum.
Like Greame said, with this method, It will take a while by practicing everyday and everyone will realize the true potential of rolling the dice game. Most people will not play, at first I wouldn't play. I wanted a system that gives me the perfect entry and take me into profit over night. Now I realize the first thing is not to expect profit overnight( hit 100pip or 200 pip fluctuation) or focus too much on DD or account bal.

I have only two charts maybe this will clarify how i look for entering a position. I'm fully aware that it may not live, but I have no control over that. I'm, staying with the weekly trend.

On the Weekly Chart. I like the previous weeks that moves in one direction and close in the other. Weekly is more powerful than daily.

on the Daily.
Market opens. I wait to see who's in control at the the start of the day. I want to go with the flow, but in a location close to market open.
Positions at market open stand a better chance of surviving the next day retracement risk free
I entered with the flow at certain time and place the risk at the low.
I know it may not survive, but Its my first attempt.
I checked on this position during the London session and during the US. If it survive today I will BE, it may come back and kill it, but I will be ready, to glow with the flow.

I will also reduce my risk, by moving the SL, if the market moves in my favor during the London or US session. On the other hand, if it moves in the opposite direction, I will not remain fixated on the single position, I will terminate the entry thus reducing the loss.

I'm not looking to add many positions during 1 day or too close to each other
Lets see if buyers are real. The thing is I cant predict where price will go in the next two days but if price remains UP for this week I will add positions and see if the market is in favour of my actions.
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  • #4,955
  • Oct 10, 2011 10:30am Oct 10, 2011 10:30am
Quoting chips
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1318253321
Lets see if buyers are real. The thing is I cant predict where price will go in the next two days but if price remains UP for this week I will add positions and see if the market is in favour of my actions.
Hi, chips.

Friday's NFP gave very positive figures whilst market reaction was extremely moderate and this is not the first time I see such reaction post-NFP (Monday's reaction on Friday's NFP data). I also remember that after initial risk appetite on Monday, just a day after, on Tuesday, market went even lower than pre-NFP level, but let's see how this week's will be going.
Today bullish D1 candle is very unusual and maybe indeed a sign of EUR downtrend reversal.
  • #4,956
  • Edited 1:20pm Oct 10, 2011 1:03pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting AlexanderSV
Hi, chips.

Friday's NFP gave very positive figures whilst market reaction was extremely moderate and this is not the first time I see such reaction post-NFP (Monday's reaction on Friday's NFP data). I also remember that after initial risk appetite on Monday, just a day after, on Tuesday, market went even lower than pre-NFP level, but let's see how this week's will be going.
Today bullish D1 candle is very unusual and maybe indeed a sign of EUR downtrend reversal.
Thanks for pointing out the news and the unusual reaction on this particular day. However I just want to state that, what Graeme said, at least according to my interpretation is that no one really knows, when and exactly what time the market will be volatile but it is inevitable. so he participate at the open of the day, so in the event it happens he will be in it, so that his position stand a chance to survive the next few days or weeks for that matter.

So I dont pay attention to the news, just where price is now with respect to the week and day, and if price is at the right spot during the Asian open I will place a position with little risk, so that it may survive the day.

If you loose then it will be a small drop in the bucket, because on days like today you would have made up for it and much more in the days weeks to come.

My job is done for now, I keep my emotions in-check. I did what is required of me. I Traded my plan and the market gave me a reward.

I'm looking for a retracement of today,and maybe my position will die at BE.
But if it goes in my direction I will attempt another leg hopefully it will make it, if not it will cost me a small amount. I will NOT attempt more that 2 times, on this particular pair.

Here again, I will trade my plan and keep my emotions in check.
If both positions dies at the end of the day. then I will look back and say, the market wasn't ready to move to the next level and I will remain true to my plan and attempt the next day, without blame or doubting myself( hard to do), or my entry methods.

At the end of the week, if all positions die, this is still expected. I still remain true, and if I had one position I still remain true. because this one position will grow and what if next week the market turns? I will be in adding positions in the direction.

So I'm just trading my plan and entering at low risk.

I say something. Why risk 1% or 2% of your account for the gain of 200 pips. when you can risk a tiny portion for the 1000 pips gain.
  • #4,957
  • Oct 10, 2011 1:39pm Oct 10, 2011 1:39pm
Hello All,

I too have gained much from this thread so I thought I'd take a few moments and relate a bit of my own experiences here. Though the concept of this system made a lot of sense initially, implementing it has taken a considerable amount of time and brought with it a lot of frustration. Mainly, it took a lot of work to change my mindset from (loss=bad) to (loss=good). As others have said here, it has actually become quite entertaining to watch legs die at BE, knowing that I just got a free opportunity to participate in the market and that I'm that much closer to a leg surviving.

Another problem I had initially was trying to focus on far too many pairs. My entries suffered as a result, and I was experiencing a huge hit to my account even as I watched positions die after being up 300 to 700 pips. I decided to focus mainly on EU until I got the hang of it all. So that's what I've done, and my results are laid out in chart form below. You'll see that I had some difficulty establishing positions during much of the recent drop. I am not at the screen all day long, and when the market is moving so quickly I end up missing many good entries.

To give you an idea of my statistics, from August 25th through the end of September I made 30 attempts at opening a short EU leg. My average loss was 8.64 pips, and I held on to the positions for an average of 10.6 hours. I closed two of the initial three positions last Friday for an average gain of over 1000 pips and have three more legs surviving: one at 765 pips profit, one at 200 and on at 40.

I am now considering opening some long probes--not because I think the EU is going to go up (I actually am fairly convinced it is going to go down more eventually) but because buyers rushed in last week and the current momentum is up. I expect these probes to die at BE, though if I'm wrong and they survive I'll be in a position to profit from the move.

I welcome any questions or comments anyone might have. I should add that I do not consider myself proficient at this by any stretch of the imagination, and that I have traded thus far on a very small account.

Thanks for your time.
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  • #4,958
  • Oct 10, 2011 3:17pm Oct 10, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting farmerellis
Hello All,


I am now considering opening some long probes--not because I think the EU is going to go up (I actually am fairly convinced it is going to go down more eventually) but because buyers rushed in last week and the current momentum is up. I expect these probes to die at BE, though if I'm wrong and they survive I'll be in a position to profit from the move.
Thanks Farmerellis for chiming in. We can only grow stronger and more assertive if we know others are seeing success with the millipede.

I like days that move sharply in one direction and close in the other after an extreme price movement. Price perception changes when this happens, and I'm looking for a movement in opposite direction. All I can do at this point is how to participate at a low-cost.

I entered late, low cost with the flow, next day the market move to the next level and reward my actions. If the market turned I would have lost a small amount. Since my mind is not fixated on the past or future, I act based on the location of price NOW.
And COMMITTED buyers were willing to hold for a higher price on that day, close to the end so I participate with them.

my chart below. price hasn't come back as yet.
the cost for this position is Free.
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  • #4,959
  • Oct 10, 2011 5:13pm Oct 10, 2011 5:13pm
I stumbled upon this thread this weekend and I've gotta say it's quite intriguing.

I haven't been able to read the whole thread of course but I've read through the PDF of Graeme's posts so hope I have the gist.

It is a little hard to wrap one's mind around but let me give what I understand to be the skeleton and I'd appreciate help where I'm missing the point.

Okay,

Let's take a hypothetical pair. We take a look at the weekly or maybe better monthly to discern the trend. We go down to the daily and maybe 4H and using our chosen entry method make low risk entries in either direction, hopefully moving to B/E asap to avoid pip losses.

Probably a good idea to separate same direction trades by 100 pips or so at least. May take 30, 40 or more entries to establish a good leg (market will decide which direction that will be) Most orders will stop out along the way.

As we build the leg I imagine looking back at the long term, say monthly, and if there is a change, this might be a good time to diversify then continue the process.

I'm sure I'm missing a lot but give me some feedback please and I can ask further.

Thanks for the time.
  • #4,960
  • Edited 10:34pm Oct 10, 2011 5:44pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

Can you clarify how participating here would help you achieve those three goals ?

Regards,

Cam
I meant participating in Graeme's approach and not move on the next best thread on this forum. If you are asking me what good am I doing to myself or others by posting on this thread..... this post from Graeme sums it up.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4762164

Replacing Greg with Graeme and that is my simple and honest motive. I guess it is inevitable to cause 'orbital decay' on a public forum like this one. First 20-50 pages is all we need to succeed.

"Good evening all

It saddens me to notice that the thread that teaches so much on profitable trading and in areas of momentum and mass traders sentiment is gathering dust.

I have read countless threads on this forum but nothing beats the amount of information Greg/Graeme places in each of his diagram. Clearly not enough readers are taking the necessary effort to dissect and analysis each of his pics.

I anticipate Greg's/(Graeme's) return with most earnesty."
Staying in my lane...
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