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  • #4,781
  • Aug 11, 2011 12:01am Aug 11, 2011 12:01am
Quoting Runway
This is a great exercise to help gain confidence in trading statistically!

I ran a similar test. I tossed a coin 100 times.
Each time it landed on heads I would add a new position with +10 pips and I would add 10 pips to all open positions and set their stop loss to Break Even.

Each time the coin landed on Tails, I would subtract 10 pips from all open positions and close the one position that was at +10 pips as it would have hit its break even stop loss.

I created a spreadsheet with the results (attached).

Out of 100 coin tosses, I...

Good work.

One other dimension that needs to be considered is the max number of consecutive tails during coin flipping.
I mean this can take out more number of BE trades before going your way.

Second aspect is,
If you say +10 pips and - 10 pips for every event you may hit stop loss more number of times bringing the head to tail ratio to something like 20 to 80 or even 15 to 85


Regards,
TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #4,782
  • Aug 11, 2011 5:12am Aug 11, 2011 5:12am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Guys,

Can anyone help me. I got recurring problem with my computer hangging, and cannot log-on to mt4 with several pairs and indicator running on it. Forced to exit, uninstall the existing one and reinstall a new Mt4. When I logged on anew with the new installed ff after logging off, the same screen is appearing. The system somehow cannot free itself from the previous flatform.

Any help is highly appreciated.

Edd
Hi, Edd.
When you're in hanging MT4 look at the very bottom of it - there you'll find a name of your current MT4 profile.

What you need to do is you exit MT4, go to MT4 folder, subfolder "profiles" and rename the subfolder named as your corrupted profile.
Next time MT4 will start from its default clean profile.

Regards,
Alexander
  • #4,783
  • Aug 11, 2011 9:11am Aug 11, 2011 9:11am
Hi all millipeders!

Wonderful wonderful wonderful days! Big thanks to you, Graeme, for showing us that trend is really our friend. I took a nice ride on eur/chf, usd/chf and gbp/chf among others, which propelled my account to heights never seen before. Closed all positions on tuesday, and staying away from trading until next week, as I'm really experiencing my first emotional high from big move, that Graeme talked about so often. Yes, those moves exist and I, thanks to Graeme and this thread, took part in it. Still there are lots of things to learn, especially emotional hurdles. My account is quite small, and when unrealised profit was ~1,5 times the balance, I could not watch it anymore, knowing that some retrace is about to come (I'm talking about that sudden e/c u/c g/c drop tuesday evening). So now time to refocus, most important - get used to new figures in my balance line, and take it from there. I'm known to do stupid things after big hits, hence my trading "holidays". Even tried to stop myself from opening platform all those days, but failed somehow Big long road ahead of me, and I took my first steps. Good luck to everyone, may the trends be with you!
  • #4,784
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:11pm Aug 11, 2011 1:11pm
Hello All,
Sharing the results of my Mill-. Started purposefully adding to Winners after July 27th. All seemed on the up, till last evening.

It helps to think that we are giving to the market so e can reap back a couple 1000 pips positions.

My Milli Summary:
(1)Probe {entries}

(2)Cull {market determined winners}

(3)Stack {Grow Equity}; (4)Diversify{Grow Balance towards equity}.

(5) REPEAT?? {Receive the benefits of long, term, measured position investing}.

The power of the stacking was lost till recently. The remainder is to take advantage of Position Freezing, whilst participating in both directions, per pair.


All inputs welcome.

BTW! it would be a good opportunity to show how your millipede is progressing. The attached is an equvalent demo account.

Bless!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,785
  • Aug 11, 2011 11:43pm Aug 11, 2011 11:43pm
Quoting tic
Hi Vee,
.... I call this emotional growth an edge, granted it is not a technical edge but there is enough technical gold edging given in this thread for the reader to choose an edge weapon of choice, this one is a psychological ah-ha that I hope you don't mind me relating to here?
Hey Tony,

Hope you are doing well. I am delighted to read your insightful post after a long time. You are absolutely spot on ! I was struggling to find the right term for emotional growth. It is indeed an edge that 'evolves' as one progresses along in their journey. Slowing you see markets from a very different and unique perspective. This is probably the foremost reason why I am taking it slow and easy and not rushing into becoming an expert and profitable. One has to go through the art of convincing on the benefits and pitfalls. It is that 'paradigm shift' that Graeme recently talked about that would ultimately create a massive 'edge' and propel your profit level. I view this quite different than the cliche of "look yourself in the mirror" type stuff out there.

I am certainly not there yet but have had a few aha moments to raise my heartbeats and jump off the chair with joy :-

Please continue to contribute to this thread and share your experience for the benefit of all.

p.s. I am still not 100% convinced that razor sharp entries with compelling momentum/breakouts (the one that requires closing out in a few minutes if it does not 'fly' in your intended direction) is absolutely required to find success. I think with proper lot size, MM, low risk setups and using alerts at stop loss levels (along with entries) is probably ok. I am much better with razor sharp entries on M5 but find it hard on H4 timeframe. M5 is painful though. Need less stress in my life instead of making more money with more stress :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,786
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:08am Aug 12, 2011 12:08am
Quoting foxybunny
Hi Vee,

I have gone through quickly on Graeme's projected figures, and I am not sure of the exact Maths that Graeme used to calculate the projected figures.

But you have missed his crucial points. Go re-read his post after the stats.


"[i]You do not work out expected floating pips for the year by multiplying it by 13. Instead floating profit is considered as a mode of acceleration here. If the potential is there to add 200 pip per week as a floating profit on the average throughout the whole year (from the looks of the last...
Thanks FB. I appreciate your feedback. I was more interested in the underlying math to plug it in my 'portfolio analytics'. I initially understood what Graeme is trying to convey but wanted to wait for a few weeks before I respond. Just so I can validate my understanding of the underlying approach to forecasting growth.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,787
  • Aug 12, 2011 6:09pm Aug 12, 2011 6:09pm
Attempting to share so related facial relaxation a supple Lower Lip?

#492

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post4867032

Bless
  • #4,788
  • Aug 13, 2011 6:16am Aug 13, 2011 6:16am
Quoting VEEFX
p.s. I am still not 100% convinced that razor sharp entries with compelling momentum/breakouts (the one that requires closing out in a few minutes if it does not 'fly' in your intended direction) is absolutely required to find success. I think with proper lot size, MM, low risk setups and using alerts at stop loss levels (along with entries) is probably ok. I am much better with razor sharp entries on M5 but find it hard on H4 timeframe. M5 is painful though. Need less stress in my life instead of making more money with more stress :-
Hi Vee,

For this way of trading (trend following), the entry criteria, or entry timeframe you are using do not matter. I actually don't understand why most from this thread are stuck with entries on the 5m chart, Graeme never promoted that as a permanent way of trading, he only showed us that the "hindsight from higher timeframes and entry on the lower timeframes" concept works with any timeframes combinations.

This is from post number 4 in this thread "I enter from daily charts under guidance of weekly trend at market open (asian) and hope that the position survives the fluctuations of the day"... what's not clear about that ? It doesn't say use the 5m charts.

I think that what happens to many is that they lose 300-400 pips or more on the 5m charts in a week, and it goes on for a few weeks up to about 1200 pips loss, and then they get a position that sticks for a week, say for 500 pips profit and they think "Oh I got it, this is the big one", but then two things happen: under the pressure of the previous 1200 pips loss they either close the profit position prematurely, not even covering all the losses, or... they allow the position to close at BE and that crushes them emotionally.

So if you are that person described above, think about it: you could have used an entry with one position at the Daily open with 30-40 pips SL and your max risk would have been only 40 x 5 days = 200 pips for the week rather than 400 as in the previous example. This one with the Daily open has been described in more detail within the thread, but there is some in post number 4 as well: "More often than preferred, the daily position does not survive the price action of the day and most likely end up as a –30 pip loss (this is based on eur/usd)."

I think many get deluded thinking like: "Oh... I'm going to make 6000 pips anyway, so 1200 pips loss doesn't matter...costs of business", but wait a second, have you ever made 6000 pips ? Do you have statistics showing you how often you can hit that ? Your first responsability as a trader is to control your risk, because profits are theoretical, but the risk is real... once you clicked the buy or sell button you are at risk, every trader must understand that.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,789
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:20am Aug 13, 2011 8:20am
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

.....So if you are that person described above, think about it: you could have used an entry with one position at the Daily open with 30-40 pips SL and your max risk would have been only 40 x 5 days = 200 pips for the week rather than 400 as in the previous example. This one with the Daily open has been described in more detail within the thread, but there is some in post number 4 as well: "More often than preferred, the daily position does not survive the price action of the day and most likely end up as a –30 pip loss (this is based on eur/usd)."........
Great post Cam,

I agree almost completely.

But I remember Graeme also saying he will try each of his set-ups twice before moving on.

If you were to use an 'entry with one position at the Daily open' then you are risking 40 pips.

What if you go to a lower time frame and place TWO positions with a 20 pip SL ?

It is the same monetary risk, but it may give you a better chance of stacking in your chosen direction.

Michael
  • #4,790
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:37am Aug 13, 2011 8:37am
Quoting wooli
Great post Cam,

I agree almost completely.

But I remember Graeme also saying he will try each of his set-ups twice before moving on.

If you were to use an 'entry with one position at the Daily open' then you are risking 40 pips.

What if you go to a lower time frame and place TWO positions with a 20 pip SL ?

It is the same monetary risk, but it may give you a better chance of stacking in your chosen direction.

Michael
Or go into the 5min with 10pips SL and take 4 positons...but I don't think this is the point here. A 40pip SL on daily has more chance of survivability than a 1hr or a 5min position just because of the flow of price, but of course in the end it is all about what you can make work.

Is a good post Cam, a timely reminder of perspective.

Cheers
SJB
  • #4,791
  • Aug 13, 2011 8:47am Aug 13, 2011 8:47am
Quoting wooli
But I remember Graeme also saying he will try each of his set-ups twice before moving on.
Trying twice in the same place should be a rare exception, not the rule. I mean, is post number 4 not clear ? Does it specify that you should try twice ? Graeme said once that people don't action the obvious... rightfully so.

Quoting wooli
If you were to use an 'entry with one position at the Daily open' then you are risking 40 pips.

What if you go to a lower time frame and place TWO positions with a 20 pip SL ?
That's one of the problems: people always try to be smarter than the thread author and "improve" things, not being able to follow the guidelines. If it were me, I would follow the thread exactly as it was presented for a while (a realistic while for position trading, like 6 months), and only after that, based on my statistics, screenshots etc I would perhaps adapt the thing to my personality and lifestyle.

Uhm actually posting anything slightly logical in the forums seems to be a waste of time, most didn't get it from Graeme which in my opinion made things as clear as humanly possible, why should I expect my posts would make any difference ? Ok, no more soap box posts for you, get on with posting equity curve graphs from the demo accounts, that helps.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,792
  • Aug 13, 2011 10:13am Aug 13, 2011 10:13am
Hi all,

I think this post will repeat many things again, hope you will excuse me. Reading this thread sometimes I get a feeling I'm reading some bible searcher's forum: The Holy One said this, The Holy One wrote that - and quotes and references fly around. And then we stop seeing woods behind the trees, start looking for hidden meaning in separate quotes, overthink everything and end up having learned nothing.

I have achieved moderate success in past 5 months walking Graeme's way. First 3,5 were slightly up / breakeven, and then I ended on the right end of swiss appreciation. All in all about 12000 pips net profit, which is all safely closed in my account (see previous post). Have I "made it"? Have I finally "arrived"? No, no way. This is just episode 1 of xxxxx in my forex series, I got lucky I caught this trend - but then Graeme showed me where to look for what.

The way I see it, Graeme did not present us with complete trading strategy, or, presenting complete trading strategy was not his main goal in this thread. There were lots of attemps to formalize things by others, and Graeme himself posted a few strategies, but his main gift was something different - an approach, a framework, a philosophy of trading. And it consists of a few very simple things:
1. Find a long - term trend, weekly or monthly.
2. Enter in the direction of that movement using your preferred entry method.
3. If you were right, add additional positions in the same direction, trying to not to increase risk.
4. Wait and let trend do its job, periodically adding positions as price moves.
5. Don't fall in love with particular direction, always enter according to price, diversify when you think it makes sense.
6. ?????
7. Profit.

We all are too accustomed to "usual" trading strategies, that tell us to enter when teo lines intersect or a bar changes colour, and exit at fixed TP / SL levels - there is no such thing here, and that may cause huge confusion and uncertainty. That's why many are trying too hard on M5 or perfecting their entries in other ways. Not necessary - big trends move by thousands of pips, and who cares if you made 1014 or 998 or 1051 pip - as long as you made some. I lost too many both pips and opportunities trying to enter at "perfect" level, and sometimes price would just run away while I tried, or my "perfect" levels proved to be not that perfect after all.

My method, that I built on the approach Graeme told us, is as follows: I find trends on W1 / MN, check H4 / D1 to see that we are not in some nasty consolidation at the moment, and then I place limit order either below last low for sell, or above last high for buy, so when price continues, my order is triggered. No SL, no TP. I place other orders spacing them at about 100 - 130 pips, and will move SL to BE when next is opened, hence keeping only last order without SL. Closing wrong shots is still my weak side, I allowed one to run to -800 pips until I closed it, so must work on that. If price goes against me by 100 - 150 pips - no worries, I know its nothing personal, I know I'm not big enough to make weekly trend change simply by my presence. But I will never add to a negative order, unless price shows definite reversal to my original direction. Also, I only enter in original direction, another thing on my learning sheet is to learn to change my mind when price tells me to - too stiff at the moment. I use more conservative position sizing, 0,1 lot for each 10000$ in my account, so I can open more positions and not be threatened be sudden price movements. Millipeding purists may call my method sinful, controversial, not by the book, but I don't care. I'm profitable (at least so far), I know what works for me, I know what I must learn to be better, and I wish everyone the same. But please do not try to blindly copy my approach, this is the way I see the market, yours may be different, and equally successful. Pretty long post, thanks for your time and best luck!
  • #4,793
  • Edited 11:02am Aug 13, 2011 10:48am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting mrv
Hi all,

I think this post will repeat many things again................... Closing wrong shots is still my weak side, I allowed one to run to -800 pips until I closed it, so must work on that. ............
Very good post. Thanks for sharing your views.

I follow a completely different approach, however, this may help many in closing wrong trades. My weakness........... I cannot write something important without stating a logic and therefore taking the liberty of using words more than necessary.

1. There are many trading philosophies and approaches, Building Equity Milipede is one of them and a good one. Mine is different because I consider each trade as an independent event, take profit or loss on each trade and move on.

2. When a postion gets closed out or pa moves very close to the Stoploss that trade is complete with the loss, no problem. According to the system I take this calculated loss and move on looking for the next opportunity.

3. Problem starts just after stage 2 above. If the next opportunity is immediately after I close my previous trade and at the same level and in the same direction, there is no point in closing that trade and opening a next one in the same direction. That means holding on to the losing position is in fact the next trade.

4. If I hit a series of losing trades in the same direction I am in fact in the same situation you mentioned in your post, that is, -800 pip type of trade. In substance, this may be eight consecutive losses of 100 pips each.

5. Not always, but most of the time I overcome this problem by giving a break in trading when a trade concludes either giving profit or loss.

6. Since market makes both smaller and bigger moves in either direction on any timeframe, thats why one sees green and red bars of varying sizes. To me this is the key. Since my sls and tps are for equal number of pips and they are usually at the extreme point of a price range, hitting a stoploss or tp means market volatility has increased. Hitting a tp means market is now going in my favor with increased volatility and hitting a sl means market is moving against me.

7. Entering another trade in the same direction and at the same price level where my sl was hit is in fact going against the new market move. Therefore giving a break until volatility settles maybe the right way to avoid such huge drawdowns on one trade.

8. The above does not apply if stoplosses are tight, that is, not at the extreme points of the range. Tight stoplosses can get hit even without market making any significant move.

I am not sure how it will help you, but hope it triggers a thought that may help.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #4,794
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:27pm Aug 13, 2011 12:27pm
Good points. For me, small time frames with be, 20 pips or even 40 stops with the larger trend get hit a lot. Graeme must be an awesome trader to have the survivability rates that he does. Most of us would kill for that type of ability. It takes me a lot of trades just to get the ball rolling...I don't know if I will ever get there. I have been doing this for a few years now.
  • #4,795
  • Aug 13, 2011 12:35pm Aug 13, 2011 12:35pm
Thank for sharing, i have another resource that is also good for trading.

http://www.mediafire.com/?qecee5eqvahw9hc
  • #4,796
  • Aug 13, 2011 1:45pm Aug 13, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Chicky
3. Problem starts just after stage 2 above. If the next opportunity is immediately after I close my previous trade and at the same level and in the same direction, there is no point in closing that trade and opening a next one in the same direction. That means holding on to the losing position is in fact the next trade.
Hi, Chicky, read your thread on finding edge and your lessons you were sharing, ideas are clear and reminding me my own findings in fx journey. Thanks for sharing them and I hope you'll continue sharing.

To the point of re-entry at the same level.
Personally I prefer dust to settle.. my statistics suggests me to.
I use simple rule: no re-entries until price moves ahead of level where I got the loss.

Logic is simple. If price didn't pass the level in the very first try like hot knife through the butter - market conditions are such that it was not possible to make it this time. And these tries may repeat and repeat until price finally passes the level. I don't want to risk my hard earned money in those tries. Simply not viable option for me.

Instead I prefer to wait until big boys do their job in pushing price through problematic zone and only enter after "lossy", "rangy" zone is passed = increased risk to be catched in whipsaw is gone and I wait for the signal to happen in this "new price territory".

This saved me from so many tempting, but bad entries in the end. Statistics again. It's really tempting to re-enter on the same level as you see price wants to break... and it'll break it sooner or later.

Question is - do you really want to participate in those numerous tries and put your hard earned capital at risk?
I'm not that rich to participate in all attempts, prefer to participate in low-risk entries only, like when price breached the level from the very first try. So no re-entries for me there again. It's simply bad business to risk twice to get the same one TP. Double risk for what?

Regards,
Alexander
  • #4,797
  • Aug 13, 2011 2:53pm Aug 13, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Vee,

For this way of trading (trend following), the entry criteria, or entry timeframe you are using do not matter. I actually don't understand why most from this thread are stuck with entries on the 5m chart, Graeme never promoted that as a permanent way of trading, he only showed us that the "hindsight from higher timeframes and entry on the lower timeframes" concept works with any timeframes combinations.
You continue to bring up some very valid points Cam and I personally applaud your efforts. Hope you continue to do so

Quoting cameron1st
This is from post number 4 in this thread "I enter from daily charts under guidance of weekly trend at market open (asian) and hope that the position survives the fluctuations of the day"... what's not clear about that ? It doesn't say use the 5m charts.
I recently changed my mindset and always open above/below the weekly and daily open price as a hard and fast rule. I also what to see the emas spaced and going in the direction as an additional confirmation.... simple yet so effective..

Quoting cameron1st
I think that what happens to many is that they lose 300-400 pips or more on the 5m charts in a week, and it goes on for a few weeks up to about 1200 pips loss, and then they get a position that sticks for a week, say for 500 pips profit and they think "Oh I got it, this is the big one", but then two things happen: under the pressure of the previous 1200 pips loss they either close the profit position prematurely, not even covering all the losses, or... they allow the position to close at BE and that crushes them emotionally.
300/400 pips perhaps in a month but never in a week for me for any given pair. Initially, I practiced a LOT of entries on 5M solely to get better at gauging momentum based breakouts. I got really really good at it. Almost 90+% of my entries will move to +5pips+spread within a minute or two. I gained confidence and moved to H4 for entries. Unfortunately, I am NOT getting the similar rate of success. That is all I was trying to convey in my post. I continue to question myself why I am unable to catch compelling breakouts on H4 that will instantly fly in my direction within 5-10 minutes of entry.

Because of this shift in mindset, I now track (1) how many trades I manually closed i.e. false breakouts or not waiting to hit my mental SL level etc? (2) How many closed at BE? (3) Average Duration of trade for manual close for loosing trades. (4) Average duration when I set my SL to BE.

Looking at my stats, average duration of a BE trade on M5 is under 15 mins where as for H4, it is approx. 60-90+ minutes. There is more work involved so I am far from coming to any concrete conclusion. Just curious as to what is an acceptable duration of trade to go into BE on daily or H4? To me, if I have to wait an hour+ to move trade to BE, that adds to be stress level but that is just me I guess.

Quoting cameron1st
I think many get deluded thinking like: "Oh... I'm going to make 6000 pips anyway, so 1200 pips loss doesn't matter...costs of business", but wait a second, have you ever made 6000 pips ? Do you have statistics showing you how often you can hit that ? Your first responsability as a trader is to control your risk, because profits are theoretical, but the risk is real... once you clicked the buy or sell button you are at risk, every trader must understand that.
Very valid point again Cam. Low risk entries/setups is absolutely critical for effective Risk Management. In my mind, I distinguish low risk entries and razor sharp entries as two completely separate things although they are somewhat tied together. 'Quickly' moving SL to BE is also an key ingredient to risk management especially during a stacking episode.

Sorry for the long post... just trying to put my thoughts across.

EDIT: I forgot to mention... if one trades at WK, D1 and H4 timeframes as level 0,1, and 2, there is nothing wrong imho to drill down to M5 and take further low risk entries based on setups found on H4. This approach further reduces the risk. Just because someone mentions M5 does not necessarily equate to overtrading or getting the wrong impression on what Graeme is trying to convey in this thread. That's the beauty of this approach. One can apply tweaks in a 1000 different ways to suit their own lifestyle.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,798
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:04pm Aug 13, 2011 3:04pm
A farmer doesn't sow with one seed, but with hundreds of thousands. So using long term approaches I prefer to throw out as many orders as I can justify, also employing other short / mid term strategies for diversification. Having other short / mid term strategies can produce an overall smoother equity curve on your account if you are focusing heavily on long term trades. My first objective with each position is to get each investment to break even. This seems to be of the most importance, once it is at BE that trade is done and I'm off looking for more entries. If some are stopped out at a price level, that level doesn't mean anything to me personally and will happily enter at that level again later if the charts tell me.
More importantly, our skill should be in trend recognition, ie always know the current trend, status of the trend such as in a continuation or pull back, recognizing consolidations and the like.
This approach, along with Graeme's veiws has been the most fulfilling approach in my career. Also this entire thread has been one of the most sane things I have read. These are just my veiws and 2 pips worth, happy trading all.
Thanks again Graeme.
  • #4,799
  • Aug 13, 2011 3:16pm Aug 13, 2011 3:16pm
Quoting samarrone
A farmer doesn't sow with one seed, but with hundreds of thousands. So using long term approaches I prefer to throw out as many orders as I can justify, also employing other short / mid term strategies for diversification. Having other short / mid term strategies can produce an overall smoother equity curve on your account if you are focusing heavily on long term trades. My first objective with each position is to get each investment to break even. This seems to be of the most importance, once it is at BE that trade is done and I'm off looking for...
You also nailed it samarrone as your post relates to what I was saying in my earlier about "I think with proper lot size, MM, low risk setups ...". Looks like I am agreeing with everyone today lol.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,800
  • Edited 5:01pm Aug 13, 2011 4:48pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting mrv
All in all about 12000 pips net profit, which is all safely closed in my account (see previous post). Have I "made it"? Have I finally "arrived"? No, no way. This is just episode 1 of xxxxx in my forex series, I got lucky I caught this trend - but then Graeme showed me where to look for what.
Hey mrv,

I waited for a bit before replying because I wanted to see other traders reactions, see how not many have acknowledged your post ? "What ?! somebody actually made this work for them ? Impossible !"

Many congratulations, and surely as you have done it once, you can replicate the success on and on.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
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