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  • #4,701
  • Jul 24, 2011 11:10am Jul 24, 2011 11:10am
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
[quote=Pip_Pirate;4804717]Just some of my thoughts after a few months!
I have a problem with taking profits I am thinking about setting a new rule something in the lines of when account is up 100% of equity take at least 50% profits. I have in the last 6 months with very low risk seen my floating pips take me well over 150% of equity in matter of a week or 2 and i have on all occasions failed to take profit. I have then seen all my positions go against me almost back to zero. It really feels like a kick in the balls.

Regardless of the above I have at least taken profits enough to gain 15% profits last month. that is an awesome return but it seems bleak to the 150% floating I had. And I can't help but feeling cheated on some of it.




Thanks for sharing this PP, it looks like we are more or less in the same boat.
I had the same experience with my palladium positions, I just take 50% off now when I'm running in to major support .

regards,

hans..
  • #4,702
  • Jul 24, 2011 11:19am Jul 24, 2011 11:19am
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
Looks like I missed a lot here the last tree weeks, but with tree grand kids around your neck you can't complain, or trade..

For all I like to thanks master Graeme for his return to the tread..

will be back soon..

good trading to all of you..
  • #4,703
  • Jul 24, 2011 2:32pm Jul 24, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting traderray
Sorry Edd,
Don't believe I said that - what I meant - if it is not clear - is that I was always scalping. After reading this thread and a long think I now trade off the daily - not every day, but occasionally I will take a scalping trade - (I have had about 5 in the past two months) - and all were prompted by a news reaction, if I happen to be at the computer.
Traderray & Vee,

Thanks a lot guys. You are on your way discovering Graeme's approach. I still have a long time to learn along the Great Guru's method.

God Bless you,

Edd
  • #4,704
  • Edited 3:56pm Jul 24, 2011 3:39pm | Edited 3:56pm
Not sure when Graeme will come back so requesting help from those who understand the meaning behind this post of analyzing trading statistics to 'forecast' future growth/profit.

"Realized loss based per week in pip. -231
Realized profit based per week in pip. +426
Profit to loss factor, almost 2:1. Excellent but you can do much better (soon)

*Using above statistics, I can project your future results (under the assumption that current progress is somewhat median)

Estimated for the next 52 weeks.
Expected median-maxi realized loss for 52 weeks in pips. -3003
Expected median-maxi realized profit for 52 weeks in pips. +5538
Profit to loss factor, 1:1.5 (this is absolute median as we are not even considering the potential floating profit for the whole year)"

Here's my understanding of how Graeme arrived to these numbers...

4 weeks P:L factor is 426/231 or 1.84:1 (approx 2:1)
Expected median-maxi realized loss for 52 weeks in pips. -3003 (231*13 months)
Expected median-maxi realized profit for 52 weeks in pips. +5538 (426*13 months)

What I don't understand is how projected Profit to loss factor is 1:1.5 ?? Won't it be the same... 5538/3003 or 1:84 : 1 ?

This is driving me nuts as I have re-read this post many times to include this forecast/projection in my trade blotter and make it a routine to track it every weekend. Would anyone please clarify what I am missing here ??
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,705
  • Jul 24, 2011 3:54pm Jul 24, 2011 3:54pm
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Traderray & Vee,

Thanks a lot guys. You are on your way discovering Graeme's approach. I still have a long time to learn along the Great Guru's method.

God Bless you,

Edd
I have a long way to complete this journey as well Edd. I am targeting at least another 2 years to become "consistent" with this approach. Being profitable for long or short term is doable (I think!) but being consistent in all important aspects will be a major accomplishment. Although I have slowing started implementing in my live accounts, I still consider myself in 'demo mode' horning my skills, generating some useful trade statistics and re-applying them to my live trading. Demo trading is not going to stop for me anytime soon.

I have gone through a lot of 30-50% profit in a week episodes for past several years only to give it all back... no fun at all
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,706
  • Jul 24, 2011 6:45pm Jul 24, 2011 6:45pm
Things I will look for this week:
EU Weekly triangle 2/3 of the way filled will look for breakout

EUR/CHF In a small retrace and is close to breaking trendline downwards also a pinbar formed at .382 daily

AUDUSD Broke out of box last week will look for retrace and confirmation box as support for long signal.

USD/CAD new low last week and a small retrace i am undecided but will go short if signal for cheap buy in occurs.

Eur/yen Will see if it breaks trendline and resume down

GBP/CHF Waiting for trendlina break and resume of downtrend

So just a short summing up of my notes for coming week. Ive used Line chart on weekly and bars on daily to identify formations.

I am really starting to like the Line chart especially on 1day+ Will use it more the comming weeks and try to unlock its secrets

*edit* by the way this is not planned trades just some things that stood out to me so i can mentally prepare for reasonably probable setups
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #4,707
  • Jul 25, 2011 3:32am Jul 25, 2011 3:32am
Quoting VEEFX
Not sure when Graeme will come back so requesting help from those who understand the meaning behind this post of analyzing trading statistics to 'forecast' future growth/profit.

"Realized loss based per week in pip. -231
Realized profit based per week in pip. +426
Profit to loss factor, almost 2:1. Excellent but you can do much better (soon)

[color=darkorchid]*Using above...

Hi Vee,

I have gone through quickly on Graeme's projected figures, and I am not sure of the exact Maths that Graeme used to calculate the projected figures.

But you have missed his crucial points. Go re-read his post after the stats.


"You do not work out expected floating pips for the year by multiplying it by 13. Instead floating profit is considered as a mode of acceleration here. If the potential is there to add 200 pip per week as a floating profit on the average throughout the whole year (from the looks of the last 4 weeks and assuming this is the median progress once again). I would take this into consideration by considering a worst case scenario of only 10% of this amount as an realized profit, hence adding 20 pips of realized profit into the overall calculation. Creating the absolute worst case scenario.

All in all everything points in the right direction. Now this will be the most important paragraph of this whole post. Time will tell if the past 4 weeks of your endeavor was the median progress (average progress) or not.. However, time will also tell if the above result was one of the better results that happen/s/ed from now for the next year in which the above figures/expectancy will dramatically decrease. Ofcourse I only hope that the last 4 weeks was rather a poor progress compared to the upcoming one year of events in which the above figures will be much smaller than your true realized profit in the one year time. At the moment (just from 4 weeks), one can forecast 200-220 pips per week but I think the true median could be anywhere between 50-200 pips ONLY if the current method you are adhering to is 'consistent' for the length of experiment."


Basically Graeme is more conservative in his calculation basing on his assumptions.

And your current profit factor of 1.84 , you also did not count the rollover charges and interest charges etc, also you meant to LOCK in profit by trading both long/short which you have not done yet, so better to lower your profit factor to 1.5 to calculate at end of year for conservative purpose.

Cheers,
FB.
  • #4,708
  • Edited 4:30am Jul 26, 2011 4:14am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting hansnl
I had the same experience with my palladium positions, I just take 50% off now when I'm running in to major support .

regards,

hans..
Yes I will probably do the same! But I haven't decided yet. I guess after cathing that big 6months+ trend you know that it's worth keeping even if it feels better short term to take profits. I will have to think some time about this.

As for my weekly thought as we can see its vital. I think Graeme aslo mentioned this in several post. Keeping that hindsight in mind when getting into positions.
We are now 2 days into the week and the sunday analysis has really helped im now into several position and i am 6 for 1. 1 stopped out with a loss -22 and 6 on break even. I have promised myself the last weeks to use only daily weekly and 4h I won't even look at lower than 4hrs when getting in to positions. So far ive noticed that my positions last longer shorterm than we i tried to get in on 15min and 1hr charts. But I guess long term suvivability is the same as long you use the same weekly analysis.
In short nice week so far now i will be abit more passive as the trades mature

*edit* Almost forgot:'
Since I declared Trading easy. My trading has gotten better might sound stupid but it works. I've stopped looking hard for patterns so now I am only looking for the obvious(Spelling?)
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #4,709
  • Jul 26, 2011 5:47am Jul 26, 2011 5:47am
Quoting FXSurfer
Refreshingly sensible thread.

Wish there were more like it!

All the best!

Agreed.. Its seems like most of the people are interested talking things like this.. Thanks for the thread you guys its great..
  • #4,710
  • Jul 27, 2011 1:44pm Jul 27, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting pipEASY
I have been blessed by many readers to acknowledge my efforts and issue me with vouchers. They are greatly appreciated.

I feel obliged to also reward traders that I feel that are correctly interpreting and participating in the markets.

Plaese note I do not place myself higher authority to be a judge so please dont take it as an offence.

For the willing participants here is my next assignment for all.

We are going to use:

1. Drawing a battleplan on weekend using the recent completion of weekly candle to forecast the next 2 weeks of...
Hello Graeme.

I wish I would have found this forum when it was developing so I could follow along as it progressed. I have been reading, studying, analyzing, taking notes and re-reading every sentence in this thread.
I must say that this is the absolute best information and education I have seen after going thru hundreds of courses, books, systems... etc.

After I felt that I had a pretty good grasp of your methodology, I began trading live.

After the first 6 days, I have accumulated:
>> approximately 200 pips of profit from closed trades
>> approximately 2000 pips of equity growth from 10 pairs/legs that are still open.

This has been - by far - the best experience I have had over my 10+ years of trading ( 2 yrs of trading forex) !!

I feel I can actually have a life again - away from the PC.

I am currently on page 85 (of 315)... I can't wait to learn what is yet to come.

Thank you!
  • #4,711
  • Jul 29, 2011 9:36pm Jul 29, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting VEEFX
I have a long way to complete this journey as well Edd. I am targeting at least another 2 years to become "consistent" with this approach. Being profitable for long or short term is doable (I think!) but being consistent in all important aspects will be a major accomplishment. Although I have slowing started implementing in my live accounts, I still consider myself in 'demo mode' horning my skills, generating some useful trade statistics and re-applying them to my live trading. Demo trading is not going to stop for me anytime soon.

I have gone...
Vee,

Thanks Vee. My problem with long term/stacking was my emotions. Most often, I can't control myself exiting when my trades are already in profit. Since I am always in front of the computer, I can't resist watching every tick of the market. And when it is falling down even if the bar is not yet completed, I am tempted to close a position, and then reenter anew in the same direction. I was thingking, if one is already consistent making pips as intraday/ or even scalping in that sense, coupled with a good money management/ compounding, in one year or two, the profit would not be that far, or even outweight the overall result. But Graeme's thoughts and wisdom and the way he convey his message is beyond compare.

God Bless,

Edd
  • #4,712
  • Jul 30, 2011 4:25am Jul 30, 2011 4:25am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Vee,

Thanks Vee. My problem with long term/stacking was my emotions. Most often, I can't control myself exiting when my trades are already in profit. Since I am always in front of the computer, I can't resist watching every tick of the market. And when it is falling down even if the bar is not yet completed, I am tempted to close a position, and then reenter anew in the same direction. I was thingking, if one is already consistent making pips as intraday/ or even scalping in that sense, coupled with a good money management/ compounding, in...
I Had/have this problem also but I am slowly training it away.
What didnt work was demoing I trained my entrys well enough but getting on with micro lots really trained my psychology. At first i got itchy fingers when my position got above 50 pips then 100 then 200 and so on.
Now i get itchy fingers first at 300-500 something and it depends on my current realized equity.
By that i mean if i allready offset my losses establishing those positions its easier to let them run if i know im in the negative i get itchy fingers still

After reading taleb nassims book fooled by randomness i have now taken away my broker from my laptop and my mobile phone. I don't want to check it to often as in the long run it might make me take a decision when im stressed, angry, or som other feeling.

I only enter och close down a trade in home at my computer. I prefer to sit donw at the computer when I feel good no stress or other feelings hunting me.
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #4,713
  • Jul 30, 2011 5:14am Jul 30, 2011 5:14am
After reading through this enormous thread I have to say: "AMAZING!!!".

I will try to implement this method first on my demo and then in some small account. I am really looking forward to the book Graeme is writing, please include a chapter on part time trading, because that something that concerns me ( I trade last 4h candle of the day and D1 open).

Thanks once more, keep up the great work.
  • #4,714
  • Jul 30, 2011 6:12am Jul 30, 2011 6:12am
hi guys,

i ve been a silent observer of this thread for about six months now.i have to say i am impressed with the result however it is still early days.this week my profits surged by 70% i now just ignore this now as these profits are not yet mine.i now understand my job is to just move onto the next low risk opportunity and try to participate.also the "freezing" of p/l was another nuuget of knowledge that i am now implementing.

This thread has improved me as a trader, but much more than that graham`s philosophical approach is helping me in life.now when things dont go my way,i just shrug and move on.life just like the markets cannot be controlled.at best we must just participate with the best intentions.

Regards

Sir Pips

p.s Grahams superman icon is appropriate as he may have saved my life...
  • #4,715
  • Jul 30, 2011 12:02pm Jul 30, 2011 12:02pm
Wondering if anyone has successfully tried the 200ema project I participated last year with Graeme. It was quite a frustrating experience for me but thinking of giving it another attempt in a separate demo account before I give up on this sound approach.

Currently, there are numerous pairs at equilibrium (i.e. hugging 200ema) on monthly, weekly (and daily) timeframes like EURGBP for instance. Previous gap/distance from 200ema on weekly was approx. 500-600 pip range.

It would be great if someone can share their experience and how they managed to keep track of opportunity cycles, realized loss in their blotter and factor all that into their trading statistics to 'forecast' future performance and account growth. This approach requires keeping track of block of trades with realized profit/loss to know when to give up on this opportunity causing complications (atleast for me). I think it is better to try out each opportunity cycle in a dedicated sub-account. Perhaps I am over thinking this :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,716
  • Jul 30, 2011 1:10pm Jul 30, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
Wondering if anyone has successfully tried the 200ema project I participated last year with Graeme. It was quite a frustrating experience for me but thinking of giving it another attempt in a separate demo account before I give up on this sound approach.

Currently, there are numerous pairs at equilibrium (i.e. hugging 200ema) on monthly, weekly (and daily) timeframes like EURGBP for instance. Previous gap/distance from 200ema on weekly was approx. 500-600 pip range.

It would be great if someone can share their experience and how they managed...
Hello Veefx
No I have not used the 200ema project. I have also not used the low time frame entrys lately as its brings out the revenge and overtrader in me
I have tried to take to heart the first post of graeme even before the lower time frames came into discussion.
If you read my earlier post from sunday you can see what i do there. This week I chose the 3 most like candidates. I got stopped out of 2on BE and some stopped out on stacking. Ive closer 2 trades @ about 300pips to offset my losses and add a nice 20%. I want to stay alive as long as possible!

My trades from the big picture worked out fine and this is how it looks now for 2 of my pairs that i have not had any positions in just as an example.
http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/5091/eurchfz.png
and
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/6200/audusdm.png
I also got one in on EJ

I write notes on sunday on my charts and just wait for my expectations to happen and I only trade the obvious! i also dont try to get in to early I like a breakout and then retrace/confirmation of the breakout. My rule is not even to look at lower than 4 hours as I might get impulsive I am really getting to know my self and my limitations. And i dont trade the EUR/USD as it is my nemesis
*Edit*
About the projection I havent bothered with that as i don't like to expect returns yet. Seems more like wishful thinking. But i do keep statistics of average pip costs for my entries. Ive tried my money management out in an montecarlo simulator just for kicks and even under random conditions it looks very promising. The simulator don't take into account many aspect of the trading was more for kicks
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #4,717
  • Jul 30, 2011 5:06pm Jul 30, 2011 5:06pm
Quoting Pip_Pirate
Hello Veefx

About the projection I havent bothered with that as i don't like to expect returns yet. Seems more like wishful thinking. But i do keep statistics of average pip costs for my entries. Ive tried my money management out in an montecarlo simulator just for kicks and even under random conditions it looks very promising. The simulator don't take into account many aspect of the trading was more for kicks
Thanks Pip_pirate. Forecast/projection is not hoping or wishing. It's about getting to know yourself when you will be ready to quit your day job and move into a 100% FX trader. I have made it a routine every weekend for past several weeks to passionately spend a few hours looking into all my trades till date, visualize them on charts and learn from them and then incorporate 'lessons learnt' from week by week average differentials. such visualization all reflects where the clutter spots (i.e overtrading) are in your trading pattern.

I believe statistical improvement needs to be progressive to help you plan how much funds you would need when you do decide to go live. A random up/down spike in realized pnl will just skew your statistical averages giving you false and unpredictable information.

p.s. I am still holding on to my belief that razor sharp entries with compelling momentum during breakouts is not a key requirement. I may be wrong but I won't use my gut feel... I will leverage my trading stats to prove me wrong or right and tweak my trading personality towards the intended goal.

Have a good weekend!
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,718
  • Jul 31, 2011 3:30am Jul 31, 2011 3:30am
Quoting VEEFX
Thanks Pip_pirate. Forecast/projection is not hoping or wishing. It's about getting to know yourself when you will be ready to quit your day job and move into a 100% FX trader. I have made it a routine every weekend for past several weeks to passionately spend a few hours looking into all my trades till date, visualize them on charts and learn from them and then incorporate 'lessons learnt' from week by week average differentials. such visualization all reflects where the clutter spots (i.e overtrading) are in your trading pattern.

I believe...
I may have failed to express myself correctly (english is not my main language)

Ofc I look over my trades made and the decisions in the course of their lifes. That's how I came to know that my strong side was longer times frame and my bad side was short time frames with a tendency to revenge trading and overtrading. And i strongly advice others to do so aswell to gain insight in oneself.
It makes you do more of what works and less of what don't to use a well known term

About the profit expectancy I think you are correct. But as of now I also deem my OWN trading to be to spiky to even base an excpectancy on.
Some of my reasons reasons for this
1. Trade management. differs if im + or - i like to offset losses fast to stay alive

2. My trading hours. some weeks I work away from home and can only trade maybe a few hours on the end of the month or the beggining.

3. Small account. On my training account I use my "cigarette money" That is I stopped smoking and used that money each month to slowly increase my capital. As in the begining trading 1 micro lot was 1% per 10pips risk I often risked above 5%+ on a trade. Its slowly getting better as my account increases.

And Btw i really appriciates these discussions I know it helps me! The people that I work with and my friends have little understanding and no wish to discuss matters of trading. Only my wife that supports my endevours but she don't have the time to get involved more seriously.
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent.
  • #4,719
  • Jul 31, 2011 3:15pm Jul 31, 2011 3:15pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
[quote=Pip_Pirate;4823842]

3. Small account. On my training account I use my "cigarette money" That is I stopped smoking and used that money each month to slowly increase my capital. As in the begining trading 1 micro lot was 1% per 10pips risk I often risked above 5%+ on a trade. Its slowly getting better as my account increases.

Very smart approach PP , after losing more than my shirt in forex I convicted myself to double my cigarette account before putting again some serious money on the line.
working on that, and I'm sure I will get there soon with this longer time frame approach from master Graeme.

regards to all ...and don't throw to much good money to your broker..

hans..
  • #4,720
  • Jul 31, 2011 9:43pm Jul 31, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting Pip_Pirate
I Had/have this problem also but I am slowly training it away.
What didnt work was demoing I trained my entrys well enough but getting on with micro lots really trained my psychology. At first i got itchy fingers when my position got above 50 pips then 100 then 200 and so on.
Now i get itchy fingers first at 300-500 something and it depends on my current realized equity.
By that i mean if i allready offset my losses establishing those positions its easier to let them run if i know im in the negative i get itchy fingers still

After reading...
Pip_Pirate,

I need to refocuse my psychology as well. Getting infront of the computer makes you more agitated sometimes. Please post more of your experience as to how you use your pirating expertise in the sea of forex. lol!

Kind regards,

Edd
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