I think we may have a trend reversal on our hands with Debt deal getting closed and Equities on Resistance.
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- #522
- Aug 2, 2011 3:37pm Aug 2, 2011 3:37pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Mark, I will take a crack at the reasoning for you going long on the USDCAD...
I didn't follow the fundamentals closely this week, except for the debt crisis, which was probably more show than anything else. So I sort of tuned it all out.
The USDCAD appears to be coming off a double bottom, and broke through the Round Number of .95. By the top of this break through the .95 number the 50 Fib retracement lined up pretty close to the .95 round number. So on the return to .95 price pretty much stone walled right there, going through the often...
So, here is the chart that the trade was based on, everything you said.
- #524
- Aug 3, 2011 6:00am Aug 3, 2011 6:00am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
Equities are are at the weekly 'range' low now so it is certainly an important area to be watching as a guage of risk sentiment in the market.
Personally I think you might be a bit too early as I think the Eurozone problems and some recent soft global economic data is also a significant contributor towards the current risk aversion...combined with the continued trend of poor US economic data (QE3 is surely a near certainty if the US economy remains as stagnant as it is).
So I'm on the sidelines waiting for more pieces in the puzzle to come together....
Did you get a load of CHF action this morning...my brain was a bit slow to interpret this new information (combined with fact my Tweet Deck wasn't working!) so I got in late, but better late than never.
- #525
- Aug 3, 2011 4:23pm Aug 3, 2011 4:23pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
See, I told you, you were too early...
Did you get a load of CHF action this morning...my brain was a bit slow to interpret this new information (combined with fact my Tweet Deck wasn't working!) so I got in late, but better late than never.
No my brain dint work at all that after this Verbal intervention will get over CHF will rise again. I was kinda busy with others. Though the intervention itself helped me indirectly with a EU long trade.
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- #527
- Aug 4, 2011 2:11am Aug 4, 2011 2:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
it seems a very bad week to me, guys
- #530
- Aug 4, 2011 3:30am Aug 4, 2011 3:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
this is one of them, ashamed of sharing others, I think I was making a setup for unknown reason ......
Apologies for the spelling mistakes had one eye on my yen longs at the same time.
Let me know if any of the comments don't make sense.
- #531
- Aug 4, 2011 4:22am Aug 4, 2011 4:22am
thanks, LJ, for the detailed illustration. the trade was moved down as it is supposed to react in response to the resistance, minor one though, that was the doji like bar happened yestoday my time, I could not have monitored the trade, coz I left it open overnight without even a stoploss and without coming back to my screen for about 10 hours. everything is gone, when I opened my acc this morning my time. I think I am losing control emotionally, . the reason is I had similar trade as I shew you last time ( can not remember exactly when, but, should be last week), and that trade moved into my direction overnight while I set an arbitrary stoploss and killed that trade. that seems painful in my experience, looking at the price coming back made me let this trade open. to be honest, I feel some sort losing risk management idea for a while, though I understand what a rationale behavor is supposed to be......
krue
. the reason is I had similar trade as I shew you last time ( can not remember exactly when, but, should be last week), and that trade moved into my direction overnight while I set an arbitrary stoploss and killed that trade. that seems painful in my experience, looking at the price coming back made me let this trade open. to be honest, I feel some sort losing risk management idea for a while, though I understand what a rationale behavor is supposed to be......krue
One thing I didn't add in the comments below was that I see you are still in this trade...
Apologies for the spelling mistakes had one eye on my yen longs at the same time.
Let me know if any of the comments don't make sense.
- #532
- Aug 4, 2011 4:26am Aug 4, 2011 4:26am
forgot to mention, the price is approaching a major resistance as shown in your chart drawing, so, I am not closing this short position to see if could bet some recovery by tomorrow morning ( my time, again 
)
krue
)krue
One thing I didn't add in the comments below was that I see you are still in this trade...
Apologies for the spelling mistakes had one eye on my yen longs at the same time.
Let me know if any of the comments don't make sense.
- #533
- Aug 4, 2011 4:47am Aug 4, 2011 4:47am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
forgot to mention, the price is approaching a major resistance as shown in your chart drawing, so, I am not closing this short position to see if could bet some recovery by tomorrow morning ( my time, again
krue
I thought we'd been over this before, not using SL's or defined risk management?
I can never recommend taking a trade with no SL and with no plan as to where you will take a loss. I feel strongly that if you are in a trade where the reasoning for your entry has now gone then this is madness and a sure fire way to a blown account (there are very few people can trade without using SL's and defined risk as it requires a huge amount of skill and emotional control and I've never seen anyone do it successfully for a material length of time). Trading like this suggests you struggle to take losses in your stride?
I've also seen some comments that suggest you get frustrated when you've either moved to BE or taken profit and price has then moved further in your favour - this happens, it happens to me and it happens to everyone, it's part of trading, but does it bother me, hell no, cos I know that in order to make the big account gains that I do, I don't need to be in a whole market move.
The secret of my success is taking high probability trade setups and managing them in a way where I bank some regular profit but give part or all of a trade the chance to catch a runner....the rest is all psychological and for me the former was the easy part. How you manage your exits and risk management are the most important things for any trader to focus on IMO.
Greed and Fear are the biggest emotions that affect our trading, Greed causes people to get frustrated when they see a trade they were in shoot off in their original direction, fear causes people not to accept a loss and 'hope' that at the next s/r area price will turn around. Overcoming these emotions when trading isn't easy but controlling them is essential to become a consistent trader because otherwise they cause irrationale decision making.
I have more frustration seeing that you are in that UCAD trade still than I have had with any of my own trades for a very long time!
I really want to help you because I see you have the desire to succeed, but unless you get your head round the basics of risk management and concentrate on evaluating where price is likely to go and making a trade plan around this accoringly then there is not much I can to assist.
All the best
Mark
- #534
- Aug 4, 2011 8:40am Aug 4, 2011 8:40am
speechless, LJ, I understood you have helped me and others too at your best...... 
Krue,
I thought we'd been over this before, not using SL's or defined risk management?
I can never recommend taking a trade with no SL and with no plan as to where you will take a loss. I feel strongly that if you are in a trade where the reasoning for your entry has now gone then this is madness and a sure fire way to a blown account[size=1] (there are very few people can trade without using SL's and defined risk as it requires a huge amount of skill and emotional control and I've never seen anyone do it successfully for a material length...
- #535
- Aug 4, 2011 7:19pm Aug 4, 2011 7:19pm
UCAD turns out to be a disaster to me, any reason not to trade the two major resistance? how come none of the two survived short positions? I can not judge market directional bias correctly, what could be the mean to asure a sound directional judgement? some may refer to PA, but, it doesn't work to me, probably fundie, but, fundie is really very subject to interpretation. my mind was in short mode coz the overall trend of this pair has been bearish so far, even at the moment, and trend is your best friend, geeee. LJ, you went long on this pair, really impressed , there must be something on to your decision base, no ???
, there must be something on to your decision base, no ???
- #539
- Aug 5, 2011 5:11am Aug 5, 2011 5:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
The return to the .95 round number was also around the 50 fib and offered a chance to enter long. I don't think LJ ever expected this trade to run anything like it has run. He probably was looking for 1:1 and then got to break even, and was just surprised by the explosion of this pair.
I actually took full profit on my trade because I wasn't actively watching the market because I'm busy with other projects this week, but it just caught my eye suddenly so I decided to take it and take full profit at the obvious resistance area. Normally, I would take 50% profit and leave the other 50% to run and I've been outlining on the Forum how I would be managing this trade each day...being able to catch runners from time to time is essential for material account growth.
With regards the 1:1 comment, this is a pet hate of mine...people taking profit according to the risk/reward ratio rather that what their charts are telling them. So many people do this, some without realising it and it is a big hurdle that if you can over come and free your mind you will notice a huge difference in your results.
I mean if you take a trade because of a technical chart setup, why on earth would you then be deciding on your exit by anything apart from what your charts are telling you...taking profit by %R rules is trading your P&L and is a psychological issue that limits your account growth over time.
As for your trade, it was fine. I didn't see it coming, I was kind of mad at myself for not at least seeing it. But not all trades work, that is what we use stop losses for. I think LJ said he gets 80% winners. That is REMARKABLE. But that means he has 20% losers. 20%. So he has a lot more than just one trade not go as expected.
Trading is about finding an edge and exploiting it as often as possible. If you don't want to lose here and there, you are in the wrong business. Everyone loses.
Perfectly said.
