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Circular Trend-Waves 414 replies

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Circular Trendlines

  • #481
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:25am Jun 28, 2011 10:25am
For those interested in some Elliot Wave Analysis, this is what I posted on the EUR/USD thread, but I couldnt get the hyperlink reference to that post proper, so I am posting it here as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #482
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:37am Jun 28, 2011 10:37am
At the moment I am short myself from 4356 and 4380 region. Part of my short biase is based on the fact that when trendlines,

be it straight or circular,

create support or resistance spot, they somehow have to also make proper patterns. Now I dont do pattern analysis much but I keep that in mind when doing my trendline analysis.


But major trends such as a 1000 pip move dont start in june/july. However I know we are close to a impulse scenario going upwards to 4500, but this up that hit 4397 seems to loosing some momentum at the moment. The triangle on my post earlier is not complete yet, and I was suspecting a triangle region from when this rangebound motion started earlier in June 14th.

I am still trying to look for resistance spots that would somehow make sense, and why I missed the up move.

But I am with you on shorting this pair.

Quoting TraderFitz
So, now that it hit 1.44 it dropped back down but appears to be building again
  • #483
  • Jun 28, 2011 10:49am Jun 28, 2011 10:49am
The only thing I can add at the moment in regards to what I have labelled as "b wave" in red in my Elliot Wave analsysis, is that these motions have a tendency to finish at 61.8 or 88.6 of the "a wave" (red).

We will have to see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #484
  • Jun 28, 2011 11:12am Jun 28, 2011 11:12am
I am pretty sure that this is what I missed.
A expansion zone, and as always these zones create a lot of wipsaw.

But a break of the eye and a landing on 4260 should eventually happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #485
  • Edited 3:43pm Jun 28, 2011 3:32pm | Edited 3:43pm
Since the EUR did not drop to 4330, there is a probability on the M5 time frame that it could hit 4407 by the openning of the Asian session. It is pushing itself upward towards 4400 territory and if it goes above 4410 it can go higher to 4480 as well. I am not posting charts yet till the Asian session opens later tonight. But just trying to do my best to give everybody some info.
  • #486
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:40pm Jun 28, 2011 3:40pm
Lowest it could come right now is 4350.


Quoting Kambooj
Since the EUR did not drop to 4340, there is a probability on the M5 time frame that it could hit 4407 by the openning of the Asian session. It is pushing itself upward towards 4400 territory and if it goes above 4410 it can go higher to 4480 as well. I am not posting charts yet till the Asian session opens later tonight. But just trying to do my best to give everybody some info.
  • #487
  • Jun 28, 2011 3:49pm Jun 28, 2011 3:49pm
If the movement goes up then according to a previous post, its limited by 4480-4520 region:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4728564

And a good size sell awaits in that region
  • #488
  • Jun 28, 2011 4:17pm Jun 28, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting Kambooj
If the movement goes up then according to a previous post, its limited by 4480-4520 region:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4728564

And a good size sell awaits in that region
I am not actively trading this week (got some long term swing trades on). But as per my quick analysis, I completely agree with you.
  • #489
  • Jun 28, 2011 11:53pm Jun 28, 2011 11:53pm
I have to refer to this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post4733298

To try to integrate it with the circle scenario on the H1 time frame, because thats the best way to describe the wild swings that we are having since June 16:

Right now for this pair to go to 4480 region, which is roughly where the green curve is located, it had to be at 4405 by now, and created a support level at around 4380. It hasnt done that, which means we have to consider another leg dropping to 4200 region before a final thrust resumes.

And this thrust is going to be UPWARDS not down, and its going to be AT LEAST 75% of the size of the drop from 4690 to 4070, which is roughly 465 pips.

Also at 4397, there is not enough strong points on a curve that could be used to create a circle of resistance or support, which means its a new point on a path that is still to be determined. For this reason the dotted black curve is drawn, but the dotted black curve is not a very strong circle, but it could be the resistance level of some up move that is yet to come.

Because of the nature of contracting triangles, which is what seems to be happening here, I have drawn the 2 red straight trendlines to show the boundaries of this triangular region. Usually in a contracting triangle the last leg finishes at a median line that goes through the apex of the triangle. Based on this I have drawn the most probable curve, the solid blue curve, which I suspect the downward motion will use as a support level to push itself up. Both are showing that roughly around the lows of 4200 / Highs of 4100 we will have a thrust startting that will be at least 465 pips upwards.

The solid red circle is another curve that is used to show the boundaries of another support level, if the blue curve has false breaks.

Overall the message is this:

If you are long and we switch around and go to 4200, then you just have to wait a bit longer to be profitable if you give yourself lots of stoploss

If you are long and we go above 4400, then prepare to exit at 4480

If you are short from 4350-4390 region expect a rough ride downwards. This last leg is not going to be a smooth ride, its movement will be very jagged.

AND

Try to exit your trade at 4260, and then prepare for a good buy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 147 KB
  • #490
  • Jun 29, 2011 6:29am Jun 29, 2011 6:29am
Quoting Kambooj
I have to refer to this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post4733298

To try to integrate it with the circle scenario on the H1 time frame, because thats the best way to describe the wild swings that we are having since June 16:

Right now for this pair to go to 4480 region, which is roughly where the green curve is located, it had to be at 4405 by now, and created a support level at around 4380. It hasnt done that, which means we have to consider another leg dropping to 4200 region before a final thrust...


Well, my 1HR and 15M chart was telling me it was heading down last night. I wake up this morning and it had headed up. My 15M chart looked like the PA exited two different circles (one out the exited the east region and the other existed the south east region) went out into empty space for an hour or two and then just turned up.
  • #491
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:19am Jun 29, 2011 7:19am
Staying aside for today to see what happens.
Everything is getting too much twisted, I think we might have a odd spike of some sort or the other but no trading for me today.

Quoting TraderFitz
Well, my 1HR and 15M chart was telling me it was heading down last night. I wake up this morning and it had headed up. My 15M chart looked like the PA exited two different circles (one out the exited the east region and the other existed the south east region) went out into empty space for an hour or two and then just turned up.
  • #492
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:17am Jun 29, 2011 8:17am
The upper curve on a previous post by Traderfitz is the subject of my attention right now. The turnaround that I was expecting might have started:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4730417
  • #493
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:19am Jun 29, 2011 8:19am
Quoting Kambooj
The upper curve on a previous post by Traderfitz is the subject of my attention right now. The turnaround that I was expecting might have started:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post4730417


So, I got something right?????
  • #494
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:23am Jun 29, 2011 8:23am
Yes, you did.

Some time has passed, but I guess the curve should be the same. I am trying to redraw it on M15/M30 to see what happens.

But it got hit right on the money, and the lower circle is getting a severe beat.

We will have to see whether the spike will be the needle that will burst the bubble.

If that is the case my scenario of a dip to 4200, was gonna happen a bit higher up and not at 4397.

AND back to the same belief that trends dont start in June / July.

But still I am on the side line.

Quoting TraderFitz
So, I got something right?????
  • #495
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:27am Jun 29, 2011 8:27am
Quoting Kambooj
Yes, you did.

Some time has passed, but I guess the curve should be the same. I am trying to redraw it on M15/M30 to see what happens.

But it got hit right on the money, and the lower circle is getting a severe beat.

We will have to see whether the spike will be the needle that will burst the bubble.

If that is the case my scenario of a dip to 4200, was gonna happen a bit higher up and not at 4397.

AND back to the same belief that trends dont start in June / July.

But still I am on the side line.


SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #496
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:28am Jun 29, 2011 8:28am
The M30 one right now draws better, since I cant get some of the points on the M15.

2 Thumbs up to you TraderFitz

But still speculative...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #497
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:39am Jun 29, 2011 8:39am
Quoting Kambooj
The M30 one right now draws better, since I cant get some of the points on the M15.

2 Thumbs up to you TraderFitz

But still speculative...


I would be very wary if I was you. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what I think it should do. I call it the "TraderFitz trap". You have heard of bull traps and bear traps but there is a "TraderFitz trap" as well. This may be one.
  • #498
  • Jun 29, 2011 8:47am Jun 29, 2011 8:47am
I am not in the market right now, but just trying to show all possibilities. But here is something to consider where there might be a symmetry.

I will probably wait to go for a buy if the scenario for a dip to 4200 happens.


Quoting TraderFitz
I would be very wary if I was you. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what I think it should do. I call it the "TraderFitz trap". You have heard of bull traps and bear traps but there is a "TraderFitz trap" as well. This may be one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #499
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:05am Jun 29, 2011 9:05am
Another view to show symmetry in the current situation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #500
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:47am Jun 29, 2011 10:47am
I will take this trade [email protected]

sorry must go will b back later
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