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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #1,061
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:54am Mar 30, 2011 9:54am
hmm still not right. i changed the settings on my chart and in yours the smoothing part is missing. So you are only running a simple average instead of a smoothed simple average. look if you can apply "Wilder's smoothing" or "smoothing" on the indicator settings. problem with the incorrect display is that fractal signals might occur different around the alligator and more importantly your exit will be incorrect.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,062
  • Mar 30, 2011 10:50am Mar 30, 2011 10:50am
This is the reason why (however, I don't know how to fix it):

ef JOffset = 8;
def Javg13 = ((high[12 + JOffset] + low[12 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg12 = ((high[11 + JOffset] + low[11 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg11 = ((high[10 + JOffset] + low[10 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg10 = ((high[9 + JOffset] + low[9 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg9 = ((high[8 + JOffset] + low[8 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg8 = ((high[7 + JOffset] + low[7 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg7 = ((high[6 + JOffset] + low[6 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg6 = ((high[5 + JOffset] + low[5 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg5 = ((high[4 + JOffset] + low[4 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg4 = ((high[3 + JOffset] + low[3 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg3 = ((high[2 + JOffset] + low[2 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg2 = ((high[1 + JOffset] + low[1 + JOffset]) / 2);
def Javg1 = ((high[0 + JOffset] + low[0 + JOffset]) / 2);

def SSMAJaws = ( Javg1 + Javg2 + Javg3 + Javg4 + Javg5 + Javg6 + Javg7 + Javg8 + Javg9 + Javg10 + Javg11 + Javg12 + Javg13) / 13;
  • #1,063
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:07am Mar 30, 2011 11:07am
Just placed a Buy STOP order F @ 14.89.

However, it is very bad that I have a bad aligator moving averages. I see it is a very serious problem which I have to solve.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-30-TOS_CHARTS5.png Size: 62 KB
  • #1,064
  • Mar 30, 2011 11:13am Mar 30, 2011 11:13am
Quoting ealas
Just placed a Buy STOP order F @ 14.89.

However, it is very bad that I have a bad aligator moving averages. I see it is a very serious problem which I have to solve.
unfortunately thats true. since i dont have a clue about programming either i cant really help you out. maybe contact the person who runs the blog you got it from. other than that there is the option of charting with a different software and only place your trades through thinkorswim. thats not ideal, but for daily trades good enough for the time being..
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,065
  • Mar 30, 2011 12:22pm Mar 30, 2011 12:22pm
I have to fix this problem. For example, F (5min) trade was ruined, because a had a false signal. Well.. Are here anybody who can help me with aligator indicator for thinkorswim?

Here is the chart..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-30-TOS_CHARTS6.png Size: 69 KB
  • #1,066
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:09pm Mar 30, 2011 2:09pm
this can happen though. dont know what it looks like if the alligator is displayed correctly, if you would still be in this trade, but this can happen of course.

i just noticed another thing. with your alligator the red line is where the green line should be and vice versa in the above chart (its correct on other charts that you posted). did you notice that?! there seems to be something inheretly wrong with the code you use. it's always the green line closest to the price in a trend. except you've set the colors another way, this is wrong too ..

i am afraid you cant expect much help here and go on search somewhere else, most people here use MT4 for charting and trading since it's a currency forum and MT4 seems to be the most popular platform.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,067
  • Mar 31, 2011 10:09am Mar 31, 2011 10:09am
Slight, I know that this forum is full of forex lovers, however, i didn't found anywhere where to discuss trading with this system. Do you know any better places?

FDX price today is consolidating, however, there is no sell signal, so I will stick with it for some time.

Opened a new small position at GE. Uploading my chart.

Have a small day trade at FAS. Opened my position at 30.28. Stop loss ~30
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,068
  • Mar 31, 2011 12:01pm Mar 31, 2011 12:01pm
no i havent found a place where this system is discussed more intensively. actually i have found that most people drop trading it at some point so most of my connection to these people is no more. i am daily in various irc chatrooms on a financial network where many daytraders and longer term traders hang around. they trade all different systems though.
if you like we can get in touch more .. i pretty much run every messenger so we could hook up that way.

all you trades will make new highs give it quite a bit of time and you're gonna see good profits. especially on the larger timeframes (daily) it'll be a lot of fun

good trading man..
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,069
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:42pm Mar 31, 2011 1:42pm
One more very small trade. A bit late though..

Right now I will give some time for me and for the markets...

This is my portfolio for the moment:
AVL
HAS
FDX
GE
FAS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-31-TOS_CHARTS4.png Size: 57 KB
  • #1,070
  • Apr 1, 2011 9:16am Apr 1, 2011 9:16am
For the moment:

AVL +5%
FAS +3.1%
GE +0.85%
HAS +0.87%
FDX +6.11%

nice..
  • #1,071
  • Apr 1, 2011 12:43pm Apr 1, 2011 12:43pm
Closed my yesterdays AVL trade with 10.4% profit.

Slight, I know, I know.. However 10% per day is enough for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,072
  • Apr 1, 2011 12:56pm Apr 1, 2011 12:56pm
hehe but great piece of advice for you: never go against the rules. your trading here implies a certain degree of greed that was involved in this trade. it's really not about the money long term, it's about following the plan.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #1,073
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:02pm Apr 1, 2011 1:02pm
You are totally right, HOWEVER, I think that 10% is good enough for a fast one day trade. On Monday this stock can be 20% down so I will be greedy.

I agree that we have to stick with the rules in FAZ, HAS, FDX, GE. Those stocks are huge. They are good for longer term investment.
  • #1,074
  • Apr 1, 2011 1:32pm Apr 1, 2011 1:32pm
One more small trade with penny stock: bought BLDP at 2.39$. I love the weekly chart of it!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,075
  • Apr 1, 2011 11:49pm Apr 1, 2011 11:49pm
I think there's no better place to discuss this system other than this forum

hi ealas, which platform/broker do you use?
  • #1,076
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:10am Apr 3, 2011 4:10am
Dear BW traders,

Would you please help me to find out the reasonable exit strategy that does not put back as much the accumulated profit to the market as possible?

According to the BW tenet, all of the existing positions are exited when the counter signal (bullish -> bearish divergent bar and vice versa) emerges. This would be okay when the market is sustainably trending (Awesome Oscillator is consecutively generating histograms in the identical color), but no one can tolerate too many whipsaws during the mediocre trends (the color of AO histograms is frequently alternating with each other).

Any comments would be greatly appreciated.
  • #1,077
  • Apr 3, 2011 4:32am Apr 3, 2011 4:32am
Hi! Glad that more people are joining our discussion.

I am using thinkorswim as a platform for my charts. My broker is MB Trading.
  • #1,078
  • Apr 3, 2011 6:57am Apr 3, 2011 6:57am
Quoting poyais
Dear BW traders,

Would you please help me to find out the reasonable exit strategy that does not put back as much the accumulated profit to the market as possible?

According to the BW tenet, all of the existing positions are exited when the counter signal (bullish -> bearish divergent bar and vice versa) emerges. This would be okay when the market is sustainably trending (Awesome Oscillator is consecutively generating histograms in the identical color), but no one can tolerate too many whipsaws during the mediocre trends (the color of AO histograms...
hi poyais,

i use the bdb and green/red line as my exit, both has pros and cons. It's impossible to identify and exit at the top or the bottom..

if you use bdb/5 bar trailing stop u wont give back ur profit tat much, but you could miss the trend.

with the green/red line, u can stay with the market a bit longer and catch the big move, but on the other side, u could give away some of the profit. it's more like "win small or hit the jackpot"

what i do is whenever there's a divergence on the ao i tend to tighten my stop (using a bdb/5 bar trailing stop), if i see a strong trend, i use the red/green line.
  • #1,079
  • Edited 8:00am Apr 3, 2011 7:27am | Edited 8:00am
Thank you for your valuable comments, Alligator.

May I ask if the green/red line means SAO (Wiseman 2)? Actually, I'm using the Wiseman 2 as the confirmation to enter all of the BW setups, Wiseman 1, Wiseman Fractals and Breakout Fractals. Believe me or not, this idea has successfully eradicated so many false signals.

I'd like to adopt your profit taking technique and keep my eyes on the imminent reversals being predicted by the AO divergences.
  • #1,080
  • Apr 3, 2011 9:51pm Apr 3, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting poyais
Thank you for your valuable comments, Alligator.

May I ask if the green/red line means SAO (Wiseman 2)? Actually, I'm using the Wiseman 2 as the confirmation to enter all of the BW setups, Wiseman 1, Wiseman Fractals and Breakout Fractals. Believe me or not, this idea has successfully eradicated so many false signals.

I'd like to adopt your profit taking technique and keep my eyes on the imminent reversals being predicted by the AO divergences.
no, i mean is when price close above/below the red/green alligator line.

i have a problem with wm 1 and 2, until now i haven't found the right setup, i rarely use it now, maybe you could post some chart so i can learn something

yeahh, AO divergence is when you need to watch the market carefully. it really help me a lot..
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