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  • #1,101
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:43pm Feb 24, 2011 12:43pm
Just a thought...
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  • #1,102
  • Feb 24, 2011 11:56pm Feb 24, 2011 11:56pm
Quoting DanUK
Just a thought...
Dan, thanks a lot for posting the charts.
They help a lot to understand more.

Thanks
Andreas
  • #1,103
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:51am Feb 25, 2011 3:51am
Thanks Vitaliy - much obliged.

Dan's is not a system then, rather a simple philosophy, i.e. the trend is your friend?

After so many years trading forex pairs using short TFs, I think I have a reasonably good handle on the basics by now. So, all I need to do is follow this thread in order to help me decide which PA signals take priority at any given moment? I hope that this alternative philosophy, i.e. learn from your mistakes, will indeed provide more gains than losses in the long run.
OK, I'll give it a go - using strict money management principles of course!

Thanks again
  • #1,104
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:18am Feb 25, 2011 7:18am
thorset look up forex training videos on torrent, found a lot of good stuff there explaining a lot if not all and more stuff that Dan talked about.

Dan are you still long on EURUSD ??
  • #1,105
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:46pm Feb 25, 2011 12:46pm
just a quick thought .... what is your opinion ?
P.S. order was placed by EA ... don't mind that
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  • #1,106
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:34pm Feb 25, 2011 7:34pm
Hi folks,

First of all thanks a lot for sharing this simple and profitable method Dan.
secondly i would like to know if this is a good opportunity to get in if not can you please tell me why?

thanks again.
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  • #1,107
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:17pm Feb 25, 2011 8:17pm
another opportunity.. we may see triple top here by Tuesday we will have a clearer price action.
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  • #1,108
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:28am Feb 26, 2011 1:28am
Quoting 0Bid
Hi folks,

First of all thanks a lot for sharing this simple and profitable method Dan.
secondly i would like to know if this is a good opportunity to get in if not can you please tell me why?

thanks again.
Hi 0Bid,

I am not Dan but i am only looking to short this pair as its been in a strong down trend since the middle of last year making lower lows and lower highs (I never trade against an established trend).
Good luck.
  • #1,109
  • Feb 26, 2011 3:28am Feb 26, 2011 3:28am
Quoting bez3000
Hi 0Bid,

I am not Dan but i am only looking to short this pair as its been in a strong down trend since the middle of last year making lower lows and lower highs (I never trade against an established trend).
Good luck.
Agreed strong trend but it formed double bottom. thanks for the advice.
  • #1,110
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:07am Feb 26, 2011 4:07am
Quoting Vitaliy
Thanks I was just about to ask about the same thing, and you wrote exactly my thoughts, Do you think EURUSD will brake 1.3800 line ? look like 1.3800 and 1.3850 levels will be a subject of interest for the next day or two
Hi Vitaliy,

That's a difficult question to answer. I try not to predict the market as such but I tend to assume that the trend will continue rather than assuming the trend will change (the essence of trend trading basically). Therefore my assumption is that the level will break. But I have no way of knowing that for sure so all I can do is be aware that the level is a potential obstacle and adjust my trading accordingly (i.e. not trading into etc).

I have the level as 1.3700 to 1.3800 which is where price is milling around at the moment. If we break above I expect to hold as support and would be a potential level to trade off of. If we break below I will watch for price action at the lower level around 1.3500.

Hope that is of some use!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,111
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:16am Feb 26, 2011 4:16am
Quoting thorset
Hi DanUK

I have been forex trading for some time now and overall not been successful. Good, strict money management has been my saving grace!I recently came to the conclusion that I should perhaps start trading longer time frames. So, I have started following your Trend Trading thread. I've enjoyed reading your stuff ("stuff"?) because it seems to offer a less frenetic, more stable, reliable and relaxed approach. (Being an old gruntfuttock, the latter indeed really does appeal)!

However, I am having a hard time putting your method (system?)...
Hi thorset,

No I must admit I have never gotten around to writing the method into a "game plan" as such.

I would say that my trading approach is more of a strategy than a system. It is based on the assumption that there is a "fundamental" reason that underlies the trend and that gives us a basic approach to the market.

I am glad to have been some assistance and hope to continue to provide some use! If you/others are still interested in me formalizing the strategy please PM me with ideas/suggestions of what you might want to see written into the game plan.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,112
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:21am Feb 26, 2011 4:21am
Quoting bez3000


Hi Dan,

I have been looking at ec and marked the same area of S&R but also some more area's. Hope you don't mind me posting my take on this pair at the moment?
I think initially the retrace looks great but then i noticed the two other areas of S&R above this area. I have marked them on the chart attached with arrows, as i type this price is sitting on my blue S&R line if it pushes through it may get rejected by the next area i marked in red or it may push through.
I will be looking for price to be rejected at one of these levels...
Hi bez3000,

Yes that's a fair comment. There was no signal at the level I mentioned and therefore no trade.

I've closed my earlier long on E/C for 100 pips and am looking for another entry. The next place I will be looking to is the lower support area and ascending trendline around 1.3350.

The flow is not entirely clear at the moment so it's not a great one to trade. I will only get back in with a good clear setup. If not I will be sitting on the sidelines I think.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,113
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:25am Feb 26, 2011 4:25am
Quoting Vitaliy
just a quick thought .... what is your opinion ?
P.S. order was placed by EA ... don't mind that
Hi Vitaliy,

Yes I am still long on the E/U.

The double top you have highlighted (at about 1.3800) is certainly possible but not tradable (based on this method) until it is broken (under 1.3500) and re-tested. If the level holds on the re-test then a short would be acceptable - but not until then!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,114
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:27am Feb 26, 2011 4:27am
Quoting 0Bid
Hi folks,

First of all thanks a lot for sharing this simple and profitable method Dan.
secondly i would like to know if this is a good opportunity to get in if not can you please tell me why?

thanks again.
Hi 0Bid,

I'm not sure that anyone could tell you if this is a good "opportunity" or not. You would have to be able to predict the future to know that for certain!

It is however counter-trend and therefore not a trade I would advocate. My preferred course of action would be to short above.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,115
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:28am Feb 26, 2011 4:28am
Quoting 0Bid
another opportunity.. we may see triple top here by Tuesday we will have a clearer price action.
Again, this would be counter-trend and therefore not applicable to this strategy. It may be a fair trade but doesn't belong here (no offense intended).

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,116
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:35am Feb 26, 2011 4:35am
Quoting DanUK
Again, this would be counter-trend and therefore not applicable to this strategy. It may be a fair trade but doesn't belong here (no offense intended).

Regards,

Dan
Speaking of the AUD/USD - I am a bit annoyed with myself at the moment. My first trade off of 1.0000 got stopped out at breakeven and then due to being busy with "other things" (i.e. my actual job lol!!) I missed the next entry which so far appears to be the entry that pays!

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  • #1,117
  • Feb 26, 2011 5:07am Feb 26, 2011 5:07am
Quoting DanUK
Hi bez3000,

Yes that's a fair comment. There was no signal at the level I mentioned and therefore no trade.

I've closed my earlier long on E/C for 100 pips and am looking for another entry. The next place I will be looking to is the lower support area and ascending trendline around 1.3350.

The flow is not entirely clear at the moment so it's not a great one to trade. I will only get back in with a good clear setup. If not I will be sitting on the sidelines I think.

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,
I am curious why you closed your position for 100 pips. Mine ended on BE and it was already 200+ pips positive. Yes, there were signs of weak, especialy the candle on the 23.2. - it finished at half of this candle. But also there was a new high, so I thought the move will continue. I also took a look on the related charts - EURUSD was on the resistance of descending trendline and USDCAD looked like it will breach the support. So there was a probability of short move. But you are a trend trader, so I presume you take all or nothing. Or was it any advanced technique you havent mentioned yet?
  • #1,118
  • Feb 26, 2011 5:32am Feb 26, 2011 5:32am
Quoting Milan
Hi Dan,
I am curious why you closed your position for 100 pips. Mine ended on BE and it was already 200+ pips positive. Yes, there were signs of weak, especialy the candle on the 23.2. - it finished at half of this candle. But also there was a new high, so I thought the move will continue. I also took a look on the related charts - EURUSD was on the resistance of descending trendline and USDCAD looked like it will breach the support. So there was a...
Hi Milan,

I manage my trade as appropriate to market conditions as I can. I am also more concerned with where price ended up than where it spiked... and in this particular instance it was the third spike up (the candle you mentioned) that concerned me.

If you look at the close of price this made it the third consecutively lower peak - a sign of weakness. As a trend trader this is not a signal for me to sell but it is a signal to be cautious.

So basically it comes down to experience. Given the choppiness of the market lately I decided to tighten my stop and take some profit (100 pips or 2% in this case) out of the market rather than nothing and if I get another signal to buy I will consider it.

The thing to remember is that different market conditions require different approaches. In a situation where I feel the trend is strong I give my trades more room and time to breathe (especially where I have multiple in-profit positions). If the trend is weak (or almost non-existent in this case) and/or you do not have positions already in profit (to cover) you have to be a bit more cautious in your management.

I hope that helps to explain my approach to these situations but if you want any further clarification feel free to ask.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,119
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:28am Feb 28, 2011 5:28am
Hi guys,

I don't really like posting my trades here because I am unable to do so in real time (due to being at work!) so I have posted it on my blog here: link

Basically I managed to get back in on the EUR/CAD long.

I am watching PA carefully at the moment for signs of price turning around as I am still cautious on the trend.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,120
  • Feb 28, 2011 5:35am Feb 28, 2011 5:35am
I almost added to my EUR/USD position too but the price action didn't feel quite right to me... wrong on that one!
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