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  • #1,081
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:26am Feb 22, 2011 7:26am
Hi guys,

Just a quick post as I'm really busy at work today (will try and post some charts when I get home tonight).

My AUD/USD and EUR/CAD trades both closed out at breakeven. I have since re-entered EUR/CAD and watching price action on AUD/USD to determine whether or not I get back in.

My GBP/USD and EUR/USD trades are still open.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,082
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:09am Feb 22, 2011 9:09am
HEY DAN and guys,

Thanks Dan on your thoughts and input. Check out this set up happening.

I saw this break out on the GBP/JPY and went long. It broke the resistance and started to retest so I figured it showed a sign of being bullish. Got it on the long. your thoughts about my analysis?

Thanks,

- Ilia
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP:JPY Feb 22.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #1,083
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:21am Feb 22, 2011 10:21am
I went long on the previous post of the GBP / JPY and it just dropped down to the horizontal resistance @ 134.00 making it - 70 in the red. I have a feeling i will get stopped out on this trade.


- Ilia
  • #1,084
  • Feb 22, 2011 12:54pm Feb 22, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting IliaM
I went long on the previous post of the GBP / JPY and it just dropped down to the horizontal resistance @ 134.00 making it - 70 in the red. I have a feeling i will get stopped out on this trade.


- Ilia
Hi IliaM,

The problem you have encountered here is that you are trying to go long at the top of the trend rather than waiting for a pullback and "discount" to get in. Also, I would note that 135.00 is a "key" level and as price has failed to break through this area I wouldn't be taking any longs into it as close as you did.

If you wanted to go long on this pair you should really be waiting for price to pullback to an area of interest. If you take a look at the chart I have attached you will see the sort of thing I would look for... price should pullback to a trendline, fib level, support/resistance area or a confluence of these things. When it does you should wait to observe the price action and if it is bullish at one of these levels you have a trigger to get in.

I hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_JPY_2011-02-22.png Size: 57 KB
  • #1,085
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:09pm Feb 22, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Just a quick post as I'm really busy at work today (will try and post some charts when I get home tonight).

My AUD/USD and EUR/CAD trades both closed out at breakeven. I have since re-entered EUR/CAD and watching price action on AUD/USD to determine whether or not I get back in.

My GBP/USD and EUR/USD trades are still open.

Regards,

Dan
A quick explanation of my thought process... in the event that it might be helpful (or not!)...

AUD/USD - after going long last week price slowly made it's way back up to the descending trendline (see chart). Yesterday's candle closed quite bearishly back below the trendline and I therefore decided it would be wise to move my stop to breakeven (and was subsequently stopped out).

EUR/CAD - as with the A/U trade; price had finally made it's way back up to the descending trendline before turning bearish again. Moved stop to breakeven. After being stopped out price reacted very strongly off the ascending trendline creating an H4 bullish outside bar... which I used as a trigger to get back into the trade.

I decided to hold my EUR/USD and GBP/USD positions as I felt more comfortable with the price action.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_USD_2011-02-22.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_CAD_2011-02-22.png Size: 51 KB
  • #1,086
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:13pm Feb 22, 2011 2:13pm
Hi Dan,

Thanks for response. I totally see where I went wrong. I used the break and the retest of the horizontal resistance as a trigger but I thought I already missed the move up (at that time the candle was green) so I hopped in.

But I should have used fibs as well. Do you think a move to 132.50 would be a good indication to get back in? Also once the price moves toward 132.50 what can we use to confirm that it is more probable to bounce in our direction?

- Ilia
  • #1,087
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:35pm Feb 22, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting IliaM
Hi Dan,

Thanks for response. I totally see where I went wrong. I used the break and the retest of the horizontal resistance as a trigger but I thought I already missed the move up (at that time the candle was green) so I hopped in.

But I should have used fibs as well. Do you think a move to 132.50 would be a good indication to get back in? Also once the price moves toward 132.50 what can we use to confirm that it is more probable to bounce in our direction?

- Ilia
Hi Ilia,

Yes I would be interested if price gets down to that area. Once there you should watch for a bullish signal... such as a hammer or bullish outside/engulfing bar. Ideally you should be watching for this signal on the daily time frame or H4 as a minimum (note however that a signal on the H4 chart must be an A+ looking candle).

Once you are a bit more familiar with trading this method you can use a few other setups (such as flags, trendline breaks, W and M patterns etc) but for now it's best to stick with the aforementioned "price action" setups.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,088
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:41pm Feb 22, 2011 5:41pm
Hi DanUK,
I just recently started to follow your thread, I had something similar to you strategy for a long on my mind, as the only old good staff can be that good. But I guess I'm missing something out, on EURUSD, could you explain why you went long on that one and not short ?? since on D1 charts it looks like down trend ...
  • #1,089
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:33am Feb 23, 2011 7:33am
Quoting Vitaliy
Hi DanUK,
I just recently started to follow your thread, I had something similar to you strategy for a long on my mind, as the only old good staff can be that good. But I guess I'm missing something out, on EURUSD, could you explain why you went long on that one and not short ?? since on D1 charts it looks like down trend ...
Hi Vitaliy,

I had a couple of reasons to favour longs over shorts. First, the descending trendline (see attached chart) was broken to the upside and then re-tested (which subsequently held).

Price then broke the key support/resistance level (for me this is the most important test) in the 1.3500 area.

Price came back down to re-test the 1.3500 level (which held) and I decided to place a long on the bounce back up from the level.

Incidentally I was also watching price form a "bull flag" shown in my second chart, which again suggested a possible breakout to the upside developing.

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_Bull_Flag.png Size: 57 KB
  • #1,090
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:18am Feb 23, 2011 10:18am
thanks a lot Dan, I hope you don't if I will ask some nooby questions now and then
  • #1,091
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:28am Feb 23, 2011 11:28am
Hey Dan,

What you think is happening to GBP USD? it seems Like it cant break this years feb high. And last high before that was in Jan of 2010. Yesterday was the second bounce down from that resistance.

But also there is the analogy where if it hangs around a resistance too long usually it is more probable that it will break it.

I dont know the game plan for this one Dan help

- Ilia
  • #1,092
  • Feb 23, 2011 12:24pm Feb 23, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting Vitaliy
thanks a lot Dan, I hope you don't if I will ask some nooby questions now and then
Hi Vitaliy,

No of course not, that's prefectly fine - we all had to ask the questions once.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,093
  • Feb 23, 2011 12:36pm Feb 23, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting IliaM
Hey Dan,

What you think is happening to GBP USD? it seems Like it cant break this years feb high. And last high before that was in Jan of 2010. Yesterday was the second bounce down from that resistance.

But also there is the analogy where if it hangs around a resistance too long usually it is more probable that it will break it.

I dont know the game plan for this one Dan help

- Ilia
Hi Ilia,

I am still holding my long position. Price has made it up from 1.6000 to the next key level of support/resistance in the 1.6250 area. As this is a "key" level I am not surprised to see price have a tough time trying to break through.

My game plan is to follow the trend and until that has proven to have changed the trend is up.

If I was not already in a trade then my current game plan would be to sit on the sidelines for now. To enter long I would wait for price to either (a) come back down to the 1.6000 level or (b) wait for price to break above 1.6250 and then come back down to re-test it.

In either scenario it would be advisable to also wait for a bullish price-action setup to trigger your entry.

Hope that helps - but if it doesn't please feel free to ask further questions!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,094
  • Feb 23, 2011 2:31pm Feb 23, 2011 2:31pm
Hey thanks DanUK,

That was all I needed to get focused back onto my trade plan. Sometimes I loose focus when Im in a trade.

- Ilia
  • #1,095
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:07pm Feb 23, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Ilia,

I am still holding my long position. Price has made it up from 1.6000 to the next key level of support/resistance in the 1.6250 area. As this is a "key" level I am not surprised to see price have a tough time trying to break through.

My game plan is to follow the trend and until that has proven to have changed the trend is up.

If I was not already in a trade then my current game plan would be to sit on the sidelines for now. To enter long I would wait for price to either (a) come back down to the 1.6000 level or (b) wait for price...
Thanks I was just about to ask about the same thing, and you wrote exactly my thoughts, Do you think EURUSD will brake 1.3800 line ? look like 1.3800 and 1.3850 levels will be a subject of interest for the next day or two
  • #1,096
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:45am Feb 24, 2011 2:45am
Hi guys,

Anyone thinking of buying EUR/CAD... I think we have a potential setup here.

Watch for price action in the "area of interest" shown on my chart... we have confluence of re-testing the broken trendline, 50% fib retracement and key support/resistance around 1.3500.

Trade at your own risk though people! This is not a signal service... only trade this if your own analysis confirms my thoughts!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_CAD_2011-02-24.png Size: 47 KB
  • #1,097
  • Feb 24, 2011 4:19am Feb 24, 2011 4:19am
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Anyone thinking of buying EUR/CAD... I think we have a potential setup here.
Thanks for the heads up. I've been keeping an eye on this one myself.

Best,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,098
  • Feb 24, 2011 11:38am Feb 24, 2011 11:38am
Hi DanUK

I have been forex trading for some time now and overall not been successful. Good, strict money management has been my saving grace!I recently came to the conclusion that I should perhaps start trading longer time frames. So, I have started following your Trend Trading thread. I've enjoyed reading your stuff ("stuff"?) because it seems to offer a less frenetic, more stable, reliable and relaxed approach. (Being an old gruntfuttock, the latter indeed really does appeal)!

However, I am having a hard time putting your method (system?) into a format that would be easily followed and referred to for day-to-day guidance. I know that you have mentioned a couple of times that you intend to set out your 'game plan' in the form of a PDF. Have you managed to find time to do this yet? If so, would you please point me in the right direction?

I'm sure that I speak for us all when I say how much I appreciate the time and effort you put in to help us benefit from your expertese.

Thank you.
  • #1,099
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:19pm Feb 24, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting thorset
Hi DanUK

I have been forex trading for some time now and overall not been successful. Good, strict money management has been my saving grace!I recently came to the conclusion that I should perhaps start trading longer time frames. So, I have started following your Trend Trading thread. I've enjoyed reading your stuff ("stuff"?) because it seems to offer a less frenetic, more stable, reliable and relaxed approach. (Being an old gruntfuttock, the latter indeed really does appeal)!

However, I am having a hard time putting your method (system?)...
http://www.babypips.com/school/ check this out, it may be helpful, the thing is Dan's strategy is the combination of basic stuff that everyone should know and practice, until the recent time I was practicing on demo without success, because demo doesn't involve any financial interest. But recently I started with mini account and 0.01 lots, which is way better to practice because it involves some amount of money which makes you think before entering the trades not just " meeehh looks right lets try it and see". Not a significant amount maybe 100 $ but it makes you check 4hrs charts every 4hrs
  • #1,100
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:34pm Feb 24, 2011 1:34pm


Hi Dan,

I have been looking at ec and marked the same area of S&R but also some more area's. Hope you don't mind me posting my take on this pair at the moment?
I think initially the retrace looks great but then i noticed the two other areas of S&R above this area. I have marked them on the chart attached with arrows, as i type this price is sitting on my blue S&R line if it pushes through it may get rejected by the next area i marked in red or it may push through.
I will be looking for price to be rejected at one of these levels then drop below the 1.3520 area and retest for a possible short. I may be wrong but i am basing it on the idea that price likes to follow the path of least resistance and as i dont see this pair trending the path of least resistance would be down away from the previous areas of S&R.
Again this is just my 2 cents and a different take on this pair, hope you don't mind and maybe even find it interesting.
All the best, and good trading all.

Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Anyone thinking of buying EUR/CAD... I think we have a potential setup here.

Watch for price action in the "area of interest" shown on my chart... we have confluence of re-testing the broken trendline, 50% fib retracement and key support/resistance around 1.3500.

Trade at your own risk though people! This is not a signal service... only trade this if your own analysis confirms my thoughts!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec.jpg Size: 188 KB
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