Building an equity millipede

Thank you all for the warm compliments.

I too wish everyone a safe, healthy, loving new year.

Bless you all.

Sincerely,

Graeme

P.S Im watching eurusd. Something is tickling my fancy little bit at the moment but I need more than a tickle for my 3rd probe.

Good observation.

I still have the same upside alert at 1.3125. And yes I do cover both scenarios as always preached but this demontration which started from this week is keeping it very very simple (and preferably for this time one direction). We will take it up a notch when all participants who are following (including myself) has witnessed and tasted that large slice of profit and then I will add more into going against hindsight. Not many traders are too keen on that subject yet.

Sincerely,

Graeme

New 1 hr candle.

My wish:

Ofcourse a bold candle down with less than 33% retrace that closes below 1.3080 and the further it closes away from it the better

Very low momentum. I will not probe early but will probe when retrace is established and the price starts to drop down just below the open price of this 1hr candle. That would have better probability.

Best candles are those that opens and just charges straight forward creating multiple stacking opportuntities on all lower timeframes.

http://img709.imageshack.us/img709/2074/zz33j.jpg

OK thanks. FWIW, I am dead keen on this subject and was actually the point I liked the most when first started with this thread. I feel it is the ultimate acceptance of uncertainty - no one knows what will happen. You are embracing that and using it to your advantage.

With thanks,
MK

MidKnight, from my experience the times during which the major market movements are made tends to slowly shift between the three major currency trading locales: Tokyo, London and New York. On any given day the main market move will take place during one of these sessions. The next major move will also tend to happen during the same session.

But then there's a shift, maybe due to a change in the storyline the market focuses on, or maybe for no discernible reason at all. Maybe the big moves were taking place in the European session last week, but now they're happening mid-way through the NY session.

I'm sure there is a correlation between how often the big moves occur during a certain session and the size of the trading centre involved. London is the biggest of the currency trading centres, followed by NY and then Tokyo. So big moves happen most often during the European session, following the US session with the Asian session taking up third.

Over a long time period it is going to be possible to get legs going in any session, but on a day to day basis you need to try and ascertain how much chance there is of the session you're trading having good momentum. If you sleep during the US session then you probably should just focus on the other two session instead of ruining your rest (which is valuable in making sure you're able to focus while awake). What's the current market obsession? For example, US 10 year yields and the situation in Europe are still up there. This means that the European and US sessions are probably more likely to see big moves than during the Asian session.

Just like a currency will go through periods of decent movement followed by entering a trading range, so to do the times when trading is optimal. If your main trading session time seems to be going nowhere over a few days, instead of trying to get that blood from a stone, see if you can switch to trading during the other available timeframe that suits your daily routine. It will come back.

I also thought it might be worth pointing out why placing a probe trade and watching how the market moves with that trade on is different than watching the market without a position on: it's called the anchoring effect.

Good explanation hornedgod.

That was a very nice read.

Constant frequency is key to trading.

Came back from dinner and we are still at the same place as the open.

New 4hr candle coming up

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/7347/dddbc.jpg

Please set price alerts and have a break.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Now.

Probe in and took pic few seconds after

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/6127/ee43.jpg

Based purely on assumption and the imminent breakout

Mental stop loss 1.30959.

Im ready to close this probe the moment it stops flickering near the support

+10 pip.

This could be it gentleman

New 1hr candle coming

Expect the usual retrace on all new candles

Out.

Pic took few seconds of coming out.

It was hit and run for myself.

-0.9 pips

http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/1601/zzzgj.jpg

The good thing is that the pervious 1 hour candle has made a new low. Its still ok.

Start probing.

Using SL at high of the new 1hr candle or wait for next 15min candle.

This is big or nothing.

Make it into reality.

Im in 1.3088, mental stop loss @ 1.3097

.3086 for me

Well done.

Hope all readers see the reasons that we are taking this trade. It is no use for me to shout orders. Everything is currently aligned. Reward is big and risk is minimal.

This is one stage where one needs to be bold and test their theory. Probe sticks and its paved gold from here. We are standing at a crucial point.

Not the very best signs on eurusd 5min

Still its worth the risk for the potential reward.

Hold it in and stay in the game and see what the market does

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/725/ddzz.jpg

Hi HornedGod,

Maybe 1-2 months ago I posted my results from a 2 year study of time of day when moves occur. I cannot recall the exact percentages, but Asian timeframe (my day time) was less than 20%. This study gave me a good feel for the distribution. I understand about that the time of day movements occur moves around from one day to the next.

Your point about changing to another timeframe when its outside of my waking hours is a good one and I should study that over the holidays. Thank you.

With Christmas wishes,
MK

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/8629/zzzzzzad.jpg

Is the market planning to take another probe?

http://img814.imageshack.us/img814/5314/ddd1.jpg

To be honest, I am quite enjoying this tease the market is giving us before Christmas

That said, watching price going down after that 5m pin bar I think "Do it... do it, jump down"

Kindest Regards,

Cam

The price has arrived at an crucial level whether it will break out or not.

For example, if it does break below the support 1.3080 but there is a lack of momentum I would not stack.

The reason is that fickle momentum like this will be most likely revisited the following day.

Momentum propels the position into territory that requires a large change in the main trend to have the price comeback.

A good volatile breakout paves the start of a new trend and we are not interested in anything else.

My stop loss was just hit and i am out with -10 pips. 3 probes all failed for myself today. It would now take more than assumption but a hard confirmation for me to trade again.

I would look for entry when bold candles on 5min, 15min, 30min start appearing with less than 33% retrace.

Today I have -30 pip realized loss to my tally.

Someone might wonder why I might not continue to watch and focus.

The simple reason is that there is no need to place myself to force a trade as there are plenty more movements to take advantage of. Constant frequency is the key. Besides if it does breakout with volatile movement there are plenty more opportunties the next day or even next week as a monthly candle has plenty of opportuntiy holes.

However, I am placing new price alerts but little bit further out.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Thank you Graeme, that is a very good lesson on when to slow down with the probing and not overtrade.

Kindest Regards,

Cam