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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #981
  • Dec 10, 2010 5:26am Dec 10, 2010 5:26am
Quoting alligator
Hi guys, Which fractal would you take if we see a saddle point like this??

Attachment
My personal opinion: Each and any, if it was triggered by price! Long fractals only above / sell fractals only below alligator! So:
Stop orders above (black) fractals 3 and 4 should have been placed and hit before. As price is now below the highs of those, place the stop-orders now a few ticks above their highs. And place stop-orders above highs of fractal 2 and 1.
Don`t forget reverse pyramiding, i.e. 5 lots (mini..) for the first position (fractal4), 4 lots for second entry (fractal3), 3 lots for fractal 2........

You can also already place stop orders for the corresponding sell fractals, which would be hit only, if price meets and triggers those BELOW alligator.
  • #982
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:10am Dec 10, 2010 6:10am
Quoting yousafzai
Alligator!

Well I cannot really give you an honest opinion now because its too late. But when I looked at the chart first, without pulling the chart of AUDUSD, (i dont trade this pair, because I only trade EU) I would have gone with inner most before the Alligator was opening to that side. so probably 3 Long and 3 short. Check the H4 and you'd see a long Setup so gives you a healthy bias. but the daily is still sideways so this could be an early entry if it breaks out or otherwise. take profit at the daily high fractal .9965 area etc etc.

IMHO...
thx for the response yousafzai and forex37, appreciate that

@yousafzai: so you'll take the fractal that is near to the alligator, not the outer one, ic.. correct me if i'm wrong, and also you look at a higher timeframe to look for direction.. right? I was wondering, can we trade only looking at one timeframe?

@forex37: weww reverse pyramiding, guess i'm not ready for that hehehe.. would give it a shot though next time maybe start with 2/3 not 5 hahahaha.. thx for the info
  • #983
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:23am Dec 10, 2010 8:23am
Don`t forget reverse pyramiding, i.e. 5 lots (mini..) for the first position (fractal4), 4 lots for second entry (fractal3), 3 lots for fractal 2........

Forex37,
My understanding of pyramiding or scaling according to BWCT is that the 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, sequence starts on the second buy or sell signal not the first. The first signal is a test buy/sell of 1 lot (or whatever portion of a lot that you are working with).
Swamper
  • #984
  • Dec 10, 2010 9:15am Dec 10, 2010 9:15am
Quoting swamper
Don`t forget reverse pyramiding, i.e. 5 lots (mini..) for the first position (fractal4), 4 lots for second entry (fractal3), 3 lots for fractal 2........

Forex37,
My understanding of pyramiding or scaling according to BWCT is that the 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, sequence starts on the second buy or sell signal not the first. The first signal is a test buy/sell of 1 lot (or whatever portion of a lot that you are working with).
Swamper
The first signal (Wiseman 1) is a DB (Divergent Bar), but this is not always the start! But good remark: the often discussed DB should only be entered with 1/5 th of the regular entry size. I think, that`s what most of those who expressed bad experience with DB, missed. The Wiseman 1 is only a small risk (due to 1/5 size and close stoploss). But if not stopped out, it will collect enough pips during its travel to Wiseman2 to make the Wiseman2 entry small risk as well.

As DB requires a final extreme acceleration (steep angulation) before that trend stalls, it is rare! Most trends just fade and with a sleeping alligator change direction to new rise of a new trend. There you got to watch out: A candle that is mainly BELOW alligator can form a buy fractal which can be met, if its high can be met within the alligator!

Regards

Forex37
  • #985
  • Dec 10, 2010 9:52pm Dec 10, 2010 9:52pm
Hi Imran,

Good to see that you are active on this forum! I miss your daily updates to the BD Aimigos thread - As do a number of the members... Oh well, onwards and upwards and all that!
I missed the end of the Aimigos thread debate as I was offline for a few days, but if you still want some of your notes and charts, I have saved them in a Word document. PM me.
Your simple approach has been of immense benefit to my trading psychology, so thank you very much indeed!

I see that you no longer use St. McD in favour of the AIMS AO.
Comparing the two, the signals are similar but the AO is definitely smoother.
Can you please elaborate on how you altered the AO code to present a similar colour scheme to St. McD? I have been fiddling with the code, but to no avail.

Cheers,
Fxday
  • #986
  • Dec 12, 2010 9:27am Dec 12, 2010 9:27am
Quoting alligator
thx for the response yousafzai and forex37, appreciate that

@yousafzai: so you'll take the fractal that is near to the alligator, not the outer one, ic.. correct me if i'm wrong, and also you look at a higher timeframe to look for direction.. right? I was wondering, can we trade only looking at one timeframe? Imran:

@forex37: weww reverse pyramiding, guess i'm not ready for that hehehe.. would give it a shot though next time maybe start with 2/3 not 5 hahahaha.. thx for the info
Yes 100%.
It is abosolutely possible and is the best way of trading it. Dont confuse your belief system with my belief system. I trade 2 TF simultaneously. But if I were to trade only one of it I will still do good and so will anyone else. Remember that BW never speaks of the way I trade. Its just my own way of seeing things. In fact it would be best to trade only 1 TF. Whichever TF is your choice. but my Fav is M1, M5 and H4.
  • #987
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:25am Dec 12, 2010 10:25am
Quoting yousafzai
Yes 100%.
It is abosolutely possible and is the best way of trading it. Dont confuse your belief system with my belief system. I trade 2 TF simultaneously. But if I were to trade only one of it I will still do good and so will anyone else. Remember that BW never speaks of the way I trade. Its just my own way of seeing things. In fact it would be best to trade only 1 TF. Whichever TF is your choice. but my Fav is M1, M5 and H4.

i have been reading you post keep it up.......1M to fast and 4hrs way to long, i use 15tf only for entry and close of daily candle before i go to bed, Trade 2 pairs now GU and EU. wait for WM1 or WM2 in-respectful of divergence and Alligator.
cheers and happy holiday everyone..
Don.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #988
  • Dec 13, 2010 10:49am Dec 13, 2010 10:49am
Today is one of good day on eu in a month like this.....
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #989
  • Dec 13, 2010 2:10pm Dec 13, 2010 2:10pm
nice to meet you ,i find it EU in M15 ,its great
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  • #990
  • Dec 15, 2010 1:22am Dec 15, 2010 1:22am
Quoting yousafzai
Yes 100%.
It is abosolutely possible and is the best way of trading it. Dont confuse your belief system with my belief system. I trade 2 TF simultaneously. But if I were to trade only one of it I will still do good and so will anyone else. Remember that BW never speaks of the way I trade. Its just my own way of seeing things. In fact it would be best to trade only 1 TF. Whichever TF is your choice. but my Fav is M1, M5 and H4.
I try to use only 1 tf, but i guess it's a lil bit hard for me, still need 3 tf at least.. hehe

thx yousafzai
  • #991
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:20am Dec 15, 2010 11:20am
This is off topic I just created an account here so I could get in touch with old Imran whos been posting on your thread a lot. I'd have not posted on your thread but "Junior Accounts" aren't allowed to send a private message.

Imran! I've been missing your posts since about the 3rd week of November on a certain other forum named after a certain color of dog! What happened? Why were all your posts and journals deleted? I had saved them all to my hard drive, fortunately, but there is some censorship going on and I'm really wondering why!

I have been using and loving your AIMS system for some time, are you now sharing it publicly with anyone? Is this where you're going to be doing your postings from now on?

Feel free to send me a private message instead of putting this info out there for all to see. I'm really curious what happened between you and Dave. You were my favorite poster over there.

Thanks again Imran we miss you over at that other forum!

GatorTrader
  • #992
  • Dec 21, 2010 9:43am Dec 21, 2010 9:43am
Hey, here's a question for all of you BW followers. Let's say we think we're in a wave 4. I understand that one of the minimum requirements of a wave 4 is that the AO drops below the zero line (for a long). My question is, does the dip below the zero line have to occur on the time frame you are trading? In other words, if I am trading the daily chart and the AO does not go below zero on the daily, but does on the 4 hour, does that qualify?

I can't post a chart right now, but the EU daily is a good example I think. Assuming the point zero, the beginning of wave one down, is November 4. You can see two pretty clear waves down, with the apparent wave 3 having a more pronounced AO, thus qualifying it as a wave 3. Since then, there has been some retracement/sideways movement, but the AO has remained below zero. Dropping down to the 4 hour chart, the AO did cross back above the zero line.

What does anyone/everyone think?


Thanks,

Richard
  • #993
  • Dec 21, 2010 12:37pm Dec 21, 2010 12:37pm
Hi folks,

I trade similar to the BW method. I scale heavily in intraday trends with the use of visual tools but focusing on price as an indicator.

With regards to entries ive noticed the theme here is to enter on fractal breaks in direction of trend.

My question is:

Is there certain "requirements/rules" to validate and classify a good potential fractal from a bad fractal to enter with?

Many times price spikes and forms fractals which in themselves if used to enter can get you in considerably later than a smaller fractal or even a pullback entry.

And also with regards to stop placement. Is the stop place arbitrarily on a moving average or in a specific area away from price?

Thanks guys and merry christmas hehe

Seems like a nice bunch of people learning here.

Pip
  • #994
  • Edited 1:50pm Dec 21, 2010 1:39pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting Richard7
My question is, does the dip below the zero line have to occur on the time frame you are trading? In other words, if I am trading the daily chart and the AO does not go below zero on the daily, but does on the 4 hour, does that qualify?

Thanks,

Richard
Hi Richard,
Remember from Trading Chaos 1st Ed on page 125, the number of bars you need for an Elliott Wave Pattern, so too soon for the daily. You are looking at either a completed 5 waves with a wave 2 retrace (Big wave 3 now starting) or a 4th wave retrace (5th wave starting now) in the 240 min chart. Its hard to tell because there is no divergence in the AO peaks within the 240 min chart. Euro is a tough nut to crack right now because the Daily and Weekly patterns are blown some what. In the Daily though, notice the AO came back almost to zero? Thats typical of wave 2's although the pattern looks a little short for a wave 2. Looking at the weekly..... could it be a 1-2 1-2 starting to the downside with a monster wave 3 coming????
Who knows!
Regards
  • #995
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:43am Dec 22, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Richard7
Hey, here's a question for all of you BW followers. Let's say we think we're in a wave 4. I understand that one of the minimum requirements of a wave 4 is that the AO drops below the zero line (for a long). My question is, does the dip below the zero line have to occur on the time frame you are trading? In other words, if I am trading the daily chart and the AO does not go below zero on the daily, but does on the 4 hour, does that qualify?

I can't post a chart right now, but the EU daily is a good example I think. Assuming the point zero, the...
if we are in wave 4, we should (choose one):
1. avoid trading on wave 4 (there are whipsaw)
2. going to smaller timeframe. forexample, we did trade on wave 4 with TF H4, we going to TF M15 (so play short).

if you play on TF H1, you should watch on that timeframe only, don't worry about the D1 (just use D1 as major trend so you will follow the trend).
cmiiw ....
  • #996
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:44am Dec 22, 2010 9:44am
Quoting GreenRiver
Hi Richard,
Remember from Trading Chaos 1st Ed on page 125, the number of bars you need for an Elliott Wave Pattern, so too soon for the daily. You are looking at either a completed 5 waves with a wave 2 retrace (Big wave 3 now starting) or a 4th wave retrace (5th wave starting now) in the 240 min chart. Its hard to tell because there is no divergence in the AO peaks within the 240 min chart. Euro is a tough nut to crack right now because the Daily and Weekly patterns are blown some what. In the Daily though, notice the AO came back almost to zero?...
Thanks GR. This brings up another question I have regarding the number of bars needed for an EW pattern. What exactly do you mean when you say Elliott Wave Pattern? Is it a full 5 wave sequence, one wave of the sequence, or one impulsive and one corrective wave? Or something else? Which one of these is supposed to fit into the 100 to 140 bars?

BTW, whenever I see your posts I always think of the old CCR song "Green River" http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Thanks again for the help,

Richard
  • #997
  • Dec 22, 2010 1:01pm Dec 22, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi folks,

I trade similar to the BW method. I scale heavily in intraday trends with the use of visual tools but focusing on price as an indicator.

With regards to entries ive noticed the theme here is to enter on fractal breaks in direction of trend.

My question is:

Is there certain "requirements/rules" to validate and classify a good potential fractal from a bad fractal to enter with?

Many times price spikes and forms fractals which in themselves if used to enter can get you in considerably later than a smaller fractal or even a pullback...

will be much easy if you use according to the 2nd edition..i trade according to divergence, and alligator bull or bear flag with AO on 15tf,
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #998
  • Dec 22, 2010 3:06pm Dec 22, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Richard7
Thanks GR. This brings up another question I have regarding the number of bars needed for an EW pattern. What exactly do you mean when you say Elliott Wave Pattern? Is it a full 5 wave sequence, one wave of the sequence, or one impulsive and one corrective wave? Or something else? Which one of these is supposed to fit into the 100 to 140 bars?

BTW, whenever I see your posts I always think of the old CCR song "Green River" http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Thanks again for the help,

Richard
Richard,
The Green River is where I used to go fly fishing every year in Utah with my Dad and brothers. Sadly, he is too old to make the trip anymore, but he fished and hunted from 5 yrs old to 81 yrs old! Hope I make it that long.

I always took it to mean all waves or you should view charts with that many bars, look for the peak and work back from there. If the setup ie AO to zero, is in the 4H chart, just trade from there. Or, there was a sell fractal the other day in the daily to take, but know that you are working a 5 in the 4H and be nimble ie, get out on a BRB.
  • #999
  • Dec 22, 2010 9:38pm Dec 22, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting nightingale
if we are in wave 4, we should (choose one):
1. avoid trading on wave 4 (there are whipsaw)
2. going to smaller timeframe. forexample, we did trade on wave 4 with TF H4, we going to TF M15 (so play short).

if you play on TF H1, you should watch on that timeframe only, don't worry about the D1 (just use D1 as major trend so you will follow the trend).
cmiiw ....
Thanks. These days I rarely look at a chart smaller than a 60 minute. Even at that I'm just looking for wave clarity if I can't see it higher up. Still trying to put it together regarding EW. Sometimes I get it, sometimes......not so much.

Richard
  • #1,000
  • Dec 26, 2010 3:32am Dec 26, 2010 3:32am
I wonder where's isto, dlftrader, slight and the other profitunity expert from earlier post, do they still use chaos?
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