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Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #961
  • Dec 5, 2010 9:38am Dec 5, 2010 9:38am
GreenRiver,
Would you post a current trade or two? I've found that Chaos for spot Forex can't be applied successfully (on a daily basis) without some modification. As far as creating a program, there may be too many variables, especially after the tweaks that are needed.
Swamper
  • #962
  • Dec 5, 2010 10:26am Dec 5, 2010 10:26am
Quoting GreenRiver
Bill and Justine were negative on forex but I am not sure where they stand now. People post here who are making money. I am here because this is the only place on the net where people talk chaos.
yup i agree that his method can't be programmed..

so r u saying that bill and justine dont trade forex???
  • #963
  • Dec 5, 2010 10:35am Dec 5, 2010 10:35am
My understanding is that they trade currency futures but not spot Forex, but I've only spoken with Justine once about this. Someone else may have more insight.
Swamper
  • #964
  • Dec 5, 2010 1:12pm Dec 5, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting GreenRiver
[color=black][font=Verdana]Trading Chaos cannot be programmed, and that is its most appealing quality in my mind. I would say chaos needs a little fib and ewave. I was breakeven the first year trading by "the book", then just started tweaking it a bit. I had more than my share of 10k + profits evaporate in one day early on. But by taking profits at fib targets, not trading choppy markets, being very patient things turned around. The difference between breakeven and making money is very small. Just a few tweaks, maybe a little intuition. How can...
GreenRiver

I tried to send you a PM but couldn't. Could you send me one? I'd like to ask you a question off forum.

Thanks!
  • #965
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:18pm Dec 5, 2010 7:18pm
Here is a trade example of the GBP futures. Look how much I left on the table, but I don't care, I was able to grab some $'s and get out quick. This is not the chaos way. Thats why I mentioned earlier I was working on letting things run more, but to tell the truth, trading like this evens out your P&L. You wont catch the big moves but you keep the $'s coming in and you don't get the "up 5-10k only to get out break even" trade. There really is no secrect to this. The 1.27 reverse fib ext is from a book by Carlyn Boroden called Fibbonaci Trading. Also read anything by Robert Miner. Combine this with Bill and Justines stuff and there are 50 different ways to put together a winning system.
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  • #966
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:50pm Dec 5, 2010 7:50pm
GR

I sent you a pm. My computer kinda hiccuped when I sent it so let me know if you don't get it.

Thanks!
  • #967
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:52pm Dec 5, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting swamper
My understanding is that they trade currency futures but not spot Forex, but I've only spoken with Justine once about this. Someone else may have more insight.
Swamper
ooo spot forex, i see.. thx for the insight..

Quote
Here is a trade example of the GBP futures. Look how much I left on the...

i have no doubt with his trend following approach, all his stuff in his new trading dimension is totally amazing...
but i'm having trouble following trading chaos 2nd edition, wiseman 1, 2, well maybe im too lazy to study the elliot wave hehehehe... but i totally agree elliot wave and bill williams method combined, superb...
thx gr
  • #968
  • Edited 1:28pm Dec 6, 2010 5:03am | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting alligator
ooo spot forex, i see.. thx for the insight..



i have no doubt with his trend following approach, all his stuff in his new trading dimension is totally amazing...
but i'm having trouble following trading chaos 2nd edition, wiseman 1, 2, well maybe im too lazy to study the elliot wave hehehehe... but i totally agree elliot wave and bill williams method combined, superb...
thx gr
Special thanks to GreenRiver for discussing his method.

I'd like to add one thing.

I use only 3 indicators and use only 1 Entry method. Answer to an earlier question on entries: I make entries on m1. I try to get in early on a possible m5 trend. and then add on on m1 fractal breakouts. This roughly covers all of the entry methods of New Trading Dimensions. Well not all but near. I've learned one thin in life, and its paying off big time, t hats keep things simple. Because M1 and M5 is too fast a place to do all 7 kind of entries this method is taking care of my a/c. I'm just satisfied with what i get. e.g. the following chart would show this kind of pips can turn you into someone else!

My most important point to anyone here would be this. Understanding Chaos requires getting rid of Linear thinking. pip targets, %age targets, objective system approach, technical analysis all of it limits your understanding of Chaos. Chaos = Freedom. Chaos = New Incoming Information. You must learn to let information organize itself. I've found out through personal experience and observation that human mind has 2 basic problems with accepting chaos. 1. We check every new information with what we already know. That measn we have to look in to the past. 2. We always want to predict what would be the effect and possible outcomes due to this new incoming information. Chaos is half predictable and half non predictable. We must stop predicting the future and forget the past. "The past is not beneficial and Future is mildly beneficial ". IMHO as long as you dont know the power of Saddle point it will be difficult to trade chaos.

Wiseman! The technique of the latest book, which itself is about 6 years old now, is a trend reversal technique. Bill Williams does touch this entry even in the earlier version of the Home Study Course. I remember he mentions something about a stage of knowing when to break your rules. I assume he mean the advanced level to understanding of trading where you develop a feel for the market, perhaps developed intuition. But It does not mean you should not employ the trending technique of the previous books. It simply means that if you are in a choppy period or at the end of a fast moving trend, u could employ this strategy to get in early. otherwise if you can find saddle points here and there, then trend trading is far better then reversals. as long as we "Want what the market wants" we will enjoy trading and make money at the same.

cheers

ps: i'm in on another m1 trade as I write this. looking good so far. entry from 1.3302.
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  • #969
  • Dec 6, 2010 7:08am Dec 6, 2010 7:08am
Quoting yousafzai
Special thanks to GreenRiver for discussing his method.

I'd like to add one thing.

I use only 3 indicators and use only 1 Entry method. Answer to an earlier question on entries: I make entries on m1. I try to get in early on a possible m5 trend. and then add on on m1 fractal breakouts. This roughly covers all of the entry methods of New Trading Dimensions. Well not all but near....
hi yousafzai i tried to trade the 5 min chart, but i got whipsaw 3 times total of minus 97 pips.. still wondering how did you trade smaller timeframe?

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  • #970
  • Dec 6, 2010 10:42am Dec 6, 2010 10:42am
Quoting alligator
hi Yousafzai i tried to trade the 5 min chart, but i got whipsaw 3 times total of minus 97 pips.. still wondering how did you trade smaller timeframe?

Attachment
Here is what I think

Most Important point to consider: Time your trades with break of Fractal and first few bars on AO. Trust me you're winners will increase.
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  • #971
  • Dec 6, 2010 1:34pm Dec 6, 2010 1:34pm
[quote=yousafzai;4223601]Special thanks to GreenRiver for discussing his method.quote]
No, the thanks should all go to you and your sharing. Seeing you post your charts inspired me to chime in. I have copied and saved your charts for future reference and study. Like you said, those fractals that are nice and tight to the gator are the one's to go after! When you talk about the first few bars on the AO, do you mean after crossing the zero line or the first few after changing from red to green or vice versa?
  • #972
  • Dec 6, 2010 9:46pm Dec 6, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting yousafzai
Here is what I think

Most Important point to consider: Time your trades with break of Fractal and first few bars on AO. Trust me you're winners will increase.
i entered the 1st fractal then i stop and reverse on the 2nd fractal, then i stop and reverse again with the 3rd fractal, but i didn't stop and reverse with the 4th fractal and missed the move that's why i get -97 pips hehe..

hmm maybe if i took the outer fractal, i wouldn't have missed the 4th fractal

thx for the explanation yousafzai

oo one more thing, where did you put ur stop? red line on the 1m chart or 5m chart or u just let it run until u meet a divergence?
  • #973
  • Dec 7, 2010 4:31am Dec 7, 2010 4:31am
[quote=GreenRiver;4224740]
Quoting yousafzai
Special thanks to GreenRiver for discussing his method.quote]
No, the thanks should all go to you and your sharing. Seeing you post your charts inspired me to chime in. I have copied and saved your charts for future reference and study. Like you said, those fractals that are nice and tight to the gator are the one's to go after! When you talk about the first few bars on the AO, do you mean after crossing the zero line or the first few after changing from red to green or vice versa?
Its so good to see others doing the same or similar stuff. Makes it more interesting and I look forward to what others have been upto etc. But I've learned that public forums are a dangerous place to be. you get all sorts of criticism for nothing. if you do bad people would say, oh what a loser, if you do good others would say oh what a big head, lier, scammer etc. But as we all know humans come in all sorts of shapes, sizes, colours etc

I'd like to see more of your charts but I also understand that while you post one chart I might have posted 50 within your single trade. just kidding

I have a question for you before I answer yours, please tell me you were long EU from Sep to Oct?

I'll post a picture here to show what I mean by "first few bar of AO with break of AIMS/Fractal". yes its when it crosses ZL.

Alligator: I do bracket the M5 but only when ,as we call it depth of AIMS is not more then 20 pips, i.e. distance between outermost fractals is not too wide (but its not a mathematical constant, just a guess work) on M5. if it is I have M1 to guide me, I count wave on m1, so lets say if by the time price comes near my entry on M5 bracket and its already showing peak on AO I'll be careful and use M1 setup, that is First bar of AO and break of AIMS as my entry. Like yesterday by the time it came near my M5 bracket i was already 30pip in profit. I hope it makes sense. Its hard to talk about and explain this multi dimensional reality using uni-dimensional medium.

cheers to all.
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  • #974
  • Dec 7, 2010 5:01am Dec 7, 2010 5:01am
"if it is I have M1 to guide me, I count wave on m1, so lets say if by the time price comes near my entry on M5 bracket and its already showing peak on AO I'll be careful and use M1 setup, that is First bar of AO and break of AIMS as my entry"

Yousafzai - in your post you seem to suggest the best way is to treat BW indicators as a way to see inflection points in the market and waves to see the bigger picture and wanting what the market wants. Is this correct, if it is and you're therefore trading in multi timeframe space do you think it would be possible to automate execution and minimise reaction time? I see the merit of what you're doing but I'm too new to BW methods (awaiting delivery of home study material) to see whether it can be automated.

Thanks
  • #975
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:30am Dec 7, 2010 7:30am
I say the above because what BW teaches actually fits an EA in your brain. Well, it actually activates the EA of your right brain. Which is there but the left brain wont let it work. Once you know how to deal with left brain your right brain EA is activated and you trade automatically.

Automation could be possible but I wont enjoy trading it. Chaos and Linear Geometry dont work. Straight lines, Boxes, Rectangles, Triangles, are equivalent to pip targets, %age of a/c targets etc. thats wanting what you want. Automation would require your brain behind it. Since no EA can be as powerful as a human brain we learn to automate our own right brain and then trading becomes automated. IMHO>

cheers
  • #976
  • Dec 7, 2010 8:13am Dec 7, 2010 8:13am
Quoting yousafzai

I have a question for you before I answer yours, please tell me you were long EU from Sep to Oct?

I'll post a picture here to show what I mean by "first few bar of AO with break of AIMS/Fractal". yes its when it crosses ZL.
Yes I was! Here is the chart and thanks for your answer. You are so right about forums. I normally don't post, but lurk! I would never post realtime because Murphy's Law would see to it to make me wrong everytime!
Thanks again
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  • #977
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:26am Dec 8, 2010 6:26am
GreenRiver, Do you have a spot Forex trade that you can post?
  • #978
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:07pm Dec 8, 2010 1:07pm
This system has been arounf for a long time, has anyone had any long success with it?
  • #979
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:49pm Dec 9, 2010 11:49pm
Hi guys, Which fractal would you take if we see a saddle point like this??

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  • #980
  • Dec 10, 2010 4:51am Dec 10, 2010 4:51am
Alligator!

Well I cannot really give you an honest opinion now because its too late. But when I looked at the chart first, without pulling the chart of AUDUSD, (i dont trade this pair, because I only trade EU) I would have gone with inner most before the Alligator was opening to that side. so probably 3 Long and 3 short. Check the H4 and you'd see a long Setup so gives you a healthy bias. but the daily is still sideways so this could be an early entry if it breaks out or otherwise. take profit at the daily high fractal .9965 area etc etc.

IMHO
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