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  • #461
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:40am Oct 18, 2010 7:40am
Quoting GJP
Dan, What do you think of this set-up?
Hi GJP,

This is not actually a pair I follow so I'm probably not the best person to answer but it certainly seems to be an interesting s/r level... I liked the shooting star just above (off of 65) too!

Regards,

Dan
  • #462
  • Oct 18, 2010 7:57am Oct 18, 2010 7:57am
Quoting HxMark
Hi Dan and others

Thanks for a great thread which is a great help for a newbie like me who wants to learn to trade properly and not resort to using a robot!

With regard to your AUD/JPY trade on the 5th October, was this trade solely taken as a result of the hammer formation at the key support level of around 80000? I assume the extremely round number reinforces the support level?

Doesn't this hammer formation need to form at a swing low in order for it to be a valid trigger?

You have mentioned previously that you like to enter at a discount...
Hi HxMark,

Generally speaking you want a bit more space for price to move which is why I like to enter "at a discount" but there are times when price gets above a key level and then bounces off of it... giving an entry into the trend but without much space.

The trouble with the AUD/JPY trade is that it runs directly into a lot of traffic that is currently causing problems but the thing with it is that if it succeeds there potential reward could be 500 to 1000+ pips.

If I were still looking to get in on the trade I would be waiting for another setup formation.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
  • #463
  • Oct 18, 2010 3:49pm Oct 18, 2010 3:49pm
Hi All

I can see that everyone is doing fine! I congratulate to this thread again. Nice one. People do not kick each other here, just discuss trades. Good.

Fon one, here is Gold. It is well in an uptrend and kind of overshoot at this stage. In case it comes back to 1270-ish you know what to do. It may be long though.... Silver is similar.


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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Kind Regards zol
  • #464
  • Oct 18, 2010 10:18pm Oct 18, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi GJP,

This is not actually a pair I follow so I'm probably not the best person to answer but it certainly seems to be an interesting s/r level... I liked the shooting star just above (off of 65) too!

Regards,

Dan

Cheers Dan and welcome back, I hope you've got a sick note. -)
  • #465
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:28am Oct 19, 2010 4:28am
Quoting cameron1st
Hello Dan and guys,

Can you please have a look at my weekly chart and see if I'm on the right path to drawing the SR levels ? I treat those lines as zones rather than to pip touch (so I will watch what price is doing at the current level as it is at one of the lines).

Kindest Regards,

Cam
Hi Cam,

I think I would have a level in the 0.4500 area and another in the 0.5500 area but other than that I think you have got it covered.

Regards,

Dan
  • #466
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:31am Oct 19, 2010 4:31am
Quoting HxMark
My first attempt at identifying a possible set up.

EUR/AUD. Shooting Star formed at trend line and at 50% Fib retracement line.

What do you think?


Thanks

Mark
Hi Mark,

You are definitely looking in the right area but in my opinion this setup was less than optimal. I don't necessarily look for "perfect" setup bars but a shooting star should have the wick exceeding recent highs... it's the wick that shows the failure of the level.

Regards,

Dan
  • #467
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:39am Oct 19, 2010 4:39am
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi Dan,

Sorry just a quick one... what time zone are your charts? As in for your dailies what time do they close?

Thanks
Hi PipRiderFX,

I use Alpari UK for my charting and they are set to GMT (I think lol!).

Regards,

Dan
  • #468
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:49am Oct 19, 2010 4:49am
Quoting satelit253
hello, my name is fredy
I just wanna thank you for someone like you who bless many traders with your way of teaching
i just wanna ask, i wonder how you set the price alert , do you know the web or application which can be used as price alert ? because it's very hectic when we wait the set up to get in the trade, while price haven't retrace to 50 fib yet
sorry for the newbie question :>
i am learning forex for 6 months and doing real micro account for learning in just 2 months, and i find your way of trading of minimize the risk and expand the profit...
Hi Fredy,

I don't use price alerts these days because I am waiting for candle patterns... so if I am trading dailies I only need to check at the end (close) of each day, therefore price alerts are a little superfluous.

Please note however that this strategy isn't designed for the 15 minute timeframe... the general mechanics of it should work on that timeframe but I am looking to trade long term trends (weeks... months etc) and you are unlikely to do this from 15 minute entries!

Regards,

Dan
  • #469
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:52am Oct 19, 2010 4:52am
Quoting seifo005
Hi all
I'm waiting for the EUR/USD on 1.4400 because of :
- Fibo 61.8 for the long swing
- Fibo 78.6 for the short swing
- Down trendline
- Fibo expansion 127.2
So what you think Dan ?
Peace
Hi seifo005,

It's not something I would be looking at... you may well be right but the current trend is up and therefore I am interested in buying not selling.

Regards,

Dan
  • #470
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:57am Oct 19, 2010 4:57am
Quoting Pupkin
Hi Dan and other guys,
I know that you use S/R, TL, Fibs, RN, etc for the majors as well as the crosses.
It's a common believe that those things work because they are self-fulfilling prophesy.
Now, crosses are derived from the majors, so seems like TL or Fibs shouldn't matter that much on the crosses because PA there is driven by other factors (the majors PA).
So from your experience, does the method work on the crosses with the same efficiency as on the majors?
The only logical explanation I see that maybe sometime it's the crosses driving the...
Hi Pupkin,

Trading in general is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The markets only move because people/organisations participate in it. There is always an underlying fundamental cause for a trend to be in place (causing more buyers than sellers or more sellers than buyers) and that is the important factor.

All we are doing here is trying to identify low risk opportunities to enter the market in the direction of the prevailing trend. So, to answer your question - yes; the method works on any market I have studied.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
  • #471
  • Oct 19, 2010 4:58am Oct 19, 2010 4:58am
Quoting GJP
Cheers Dan and welcome back, I hope you've got a sick note. -)
Lol! No, sorry I don't - I guess I'll have to take it unpaid!!

-------------------

I think I've answered all questions and PMs now - if I missed any please ask again as it wasn't intentional!

Regards,

Dan
  • #472
  • Oct 19, 2010 11:49am Oct 19, 2010 11:49am
Hi Dan,

Good to see you back all better. I am still looking for my first 1000 pip trade, i thought i might be there this week as i had four trades giving me about 800 pips profit but they have retraced and one stopped out. I am sure they will carry on with the trend (lets hope so).
I find that the hardest part of this strategy is not taking profit as i could have closed out last week for 800 but as you say "That’s what separated the men from the boys".
I think once i have my first 1000 pip move in profit it will help with confidence.
Can you post some current charts of trades you are in?
All the best.




Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been around to post this last week - I was quite unwell and kept away from the computer as much as possible!

I will try and catch up today now that I am back to it... I just wanted to say congratulations to gododdin - I knew that first 1000 pip profit was close, well done my friend!

I hope people take notice of gododdin's success - it really is quite possible for others to do the same.

Regards,

Dan
  • #473
  • Oct 19, 2010 6:47pm Oct 19, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi PipRiderFX,

I use Alpari UK for my charting and they are set to GMT (I think lol!).

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,

I demoed with Alpari UK and they were GMT+2 (daily candle opening at 23:00 UK time).

Also, thank you for the observations regarding the chart.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #474
  • Oct 20, 2010 8:14am Oct 20, 2010 8:14am
Spent more than an hour reading the thread...well worth it

I'd just like to ask why you weren't stopped out on the break of the trendline in the EUR below. Also, I usually wait for consolidation patterns to form on trendlines first and then go short/long on a break of those small congestions. Like for EURCHF - short on a break of 1.3260, EURAUD - short on a break of 1.4042. Initiating the trade on a break is more expensive, but I find it produces higher probability trades. Any comments?

edit: can't seem to attach the jpeg of the picture, what I meant with the EUR trendline break was what happened on March 12, 2010 with the 1st trendline point at Dec 03,2009 and the second at Jan 13, 2010. thanks
  • #475
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:15pm Oct 20, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi seifo005,

It's not something I would be looking at... you may well be right but the current trend is up and therefore I am interested in buying not selling.

Regards,

Dan
Ok Dan; but I guess that area will be the end of the up trend.
Let's see what will happen.
Thanks friend.
  • #476
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:37pm Oct 20, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan,

Good to see you back all better. I am still looking for my first 1000 pip trade, i thought i might be there this week as i had four trades giving me about 800 pips profit but they have retraced and one stopped out. I am sure they will carry on with the trend (lets hope so).
I find that the hardest part of this strategy is not taking profit as i could have closed out last week for 800 but as you say "That’s what separated the men from the boys".
I think once i have my first 1000 pip move in profit it will help with confidence.
Can you...
Hi bez3000,

Thank you! I'm glad to see you're still working on it... I'm sure that first big win will come around soon and when it does you will begin to realise that all the hard work (waiting, getting stopped out etc) will be worth it!

I can post a couple of live examples on the EUR/USD for you... the first was the daily hammer of the 12th October. Price had made it up past the s/r area that I discussed and user earlier when price was coming down (you should be able to see the shooting star that I shorted back in March to the left of the chart). Price came back and re-tested the level, failed, and formed a hammer... I bought the break of the high and moved my stop to breakeven once price hit 1.4000 - this eventually came back down and took me out at breakeven.

Then yesterday, China's interest rate announcement seemed to cause a bit of havoc and price fell back down to the s/r level mentioned above. Here you will see my second trade from the hammer that formed at the low - it was an H4 trade which I don't normally share on this thread as we are mainly discussing dailies, but as you asked...

Regards,

Dan
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  • #477
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:39pm Oct 20, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting cameron1st
Hi Dan,

I demoed with Alpari UK and they were GMT+2 (daily candle opening at 23:00 UK time).

Also, thank you for the observations regarding the chart.

Kindest Regards,

Cam
Yes sorry you are right... they are normally GMT+1 and then during British Summer Time they are GMT+2!!! My mistake!

Regards.

Dan
  • #478
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:44pm Oct 20, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting toybits
Spent more than an hour reading the thread...well worth it

I'd just like to ask why you weren't stopped out on the break of the trendline in the EUR below. Also, I usually wait for consolidation patterns to form on trendlines first and then go short/long on a break of those small congestions. Like for EURCHF - short on a break of 1.3260, EURAUD - short on a break of 1.4042. Initiating the trade on a break is more expensive, but I find it produces higher probability trades. Any comments?

edit: can't seem to attach the jpeg of the picture,...
Hi toybits,

If I am right, you are talking about this trendline on my chart...

If that is correct, then I have addressed this earlier in the thread but incase you missed it... the reason is that the key horizontal support and resistance levels hold the most weight (in my humble opinion)! On this particular occasion the level (in the 1.37/1.38 region) was never broken and actually provided me with a re-entry back into the trend (at the break of the shooting star on the 17th March).

I hope that clears it up for you.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #479
  • Oct 20, 2010 12:52pm Oct 20, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting seifo005
Ok Dan; but I guess that area will be the end of the up trend.
Let's see what will happen.
Thanks friend.
Hi seifo005,

It may be. Then again it may not. Why guess?

The truth is picking tops and bottoms is gambling. No one can pick the end of a trend without just being lucky. You might get it right once or twice but mostly you're just going to get it wrong. I don't mean that in a negative way to you - it's just a general fact. Retail traders tend to pick tops and bottoms. Professional traders trade with the trend. Guess which group is more profitable than the other?

Regards,

Dan
  • #480
  • Oct 20, 2010 2:06pm Oct 20, 2010 2:06pm
The real money in this market is made with the trend. And squeezing the trend for all its worth by having multiple positions once you have the trend correct. Buying when price is already high or selling when its low (going with the trend) is harder to do psychologically than trying to pick tops and bottoms but thats why it works and thats why theres so few succesess in this field.



Quoting DanUK
Hi seifo005,

It may be. Then again it may not. Why guess?

The truth is picking tops and bottoms is gambling. No one can pick the end of a trend without just being lucky. You might get it right once or twice but mostly you're just going to get it wrong. I don't mean that in a negative way to you - it's just a general fact. Retail traders tend to pick tops and bottoms. Professional traders trade with the trend. Guess which group is more profitable than the other?

Regards,

Dan
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