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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #421
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:04pm Oct 7, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi goldenFishie,

I think this is a possible area of interest but do yourself a favour and drop the pivot indicator. Learn to spot support and resistance with the very best indicator there is - your eyes.

Learning to trade is about learning to read a chart and all the while you are using something else to read the chart for you (i.e. indicators) you will be stopping yourself from truly learning and understanding how to do it yourself.

Regards,

Dan


ok,i'll draw my own S&R & quit using those pivot indicators...^ ^
  • #422
  • Oct 8, 2010 2:51pm Oct 8, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting dan89
+75

Pin Bar.
1.000 level
Previous Resistence

ps. I know its counter trend but im thinking that price is going to go down from here.

Attachment

Dan
if it breaks the previous low i'm in
  • #423
  • Oct 8, 2010 3:03pm Oct 8, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting DanUK
Hello Fx_Pipin,

Yes, I think you were right to highlight this as a possible setup and I did look to sell the bearish engulfing bar that formed on the 4th however it didn't trigger and has since been invalidated.

Regards,

Dan
Dan,

Could you please elaborate a little on how you determine if a set up has been invalidated or not?

Thanks
  • #424
  • Oct 9, 2010 4:37am Oct 9, 2010 4:37am
Quoting goldenFishie
ok,i'll draw my own S&R & quit using those pivot indicators...^ ^
Good stuff! Trust me, you will get to understand the charts much better when you do it for yourself.

Regards,

Dan
  • #425
  • Oct 9, 2010 4:44am Oct 9, 2010 4:44am
Quoting dan89
+75

Pin Bar.
1.000 level
Previous Resistence

ps. I know its counter trend but im thinking that price is going to go down from here.

Attachment

Dan
Hi Dan,

I'm afraid I am going to have to do this...

You may of course be right, we may well see a reversal here but what you are really trying to do here is catch a top and that is not what I am trying to teach here.

Trading with the trend seriously increases your chances of making it because you are following the fundamental flow of money... you are not trying to gamble on possible trend changes or lucky turns.

I do welcome your input here but please don't post any more counter trend trades - it's just not what this thread is about. I know I have mentioned counter trend positions but they are not attempts at picking tops or bottoms and they should not be attempted until you already have substantial profit on the existing trend that will cover you if it fails.

Thank you!

Regards,

Dan
  • #426
  • Oct 9, 2010 5:08am Oct 9, 2010 5:08am
nice thread

finally something that is near to my trading system and style

i`ll keep watching this thread with great interes

thanks
  • #427
  • Oct 9, 2010 6:25am Oct 9, 2010 6:25am
Quoting PipRiderFX
Dan,

Could you please elaborate a little on how you determine if a set up has been invalidated or not?

Thanks
Hi PipRiderFX,

Again, this is part of the "art" of trading as opposed to the "science" - but generally speaking once the opposite end of the trigger bar has been broken you can consider the signal invalid. There are however occasional times when this isn't the case; for instance at the moment (as mentioned recently) I have a long off of the daily hammer (5th October) on AUD/JPY and yesterday's hammer exceeded the low of my trigger by a few pips before heading back up... this is a scenario I had planned for as the blue zone on my chart is a large area of s/r that will hopefully support my trade; so my stop is at the bottom of the zone rather than at the bottom of my trigger bar and in this case I would consider the trade invalid once price moves below the blue area.

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #428
  • Edited 10:45am Oct 9, 2010 7:46am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Dan,

I'm afraid I am going to have to do this...

You may of course be right, we may well see a reversal here but what you are really trying to do here is catch a top and that is not what I am trying to teach here.

Trading with the trend seriously increases your chances of making it because you are following the fundamental flow of money... you are not trying to gamble on possible trend changes or lucky turns.

I do welcome your input here but please don't post any more counter trend trades - it's just not what this thread is about....
Hey Dan, sorry about my counter trend trade post, ive deleted the post now since its off topic. .Ill stick to trend trading from now on

Dan
  • #429
  • Oct 9, 2010 8:34pm Oct 9, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi panfried,

If I may quote from an earlier post...

"At the moment I still see this pair as being in a band of s/r in the 0.8700 - 0.8800 area and as such has the potential to go back down however we are in the situation that price has exceeded the previous swing high and broken the s/r level around 0.8500 suggesting an uptrend could develop. I bought into this as price broke out of the multi-inside bar setup that arose on the pullback to retest 0.8500 after the break and I have added to it (all be it on the H4 charts) as price broke the 0.8700...

Thanks for your patience Dan,

My thinking is slowly coming around I believe...

The problem I'm finding is that with enough analysis I can make a pretty good case for long or short on most charts.

So this is the case I'm seeing for short on EG, and why we're playing it long - if that makes sense.

Just want to run it by you to see if I'm 'getting it'.

On the weekly I'm seeing price forming a doji candle just beneath resistance and a long term downward sloping trend line. I've drawn a fibbo here on the last engulfing swing, and you can see clearly where I inserted some arrows on the daily view to mark the transition from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily I've shaded an elipse around the area you mention where price retested the higher swing high at 0.8500, by this time price is clearly in an up trending channel. I have fractals on my charts just as a quick visual cue to highs, lows, congestion areas... possibly clutter I don't need. Again a doji candle has formed just below resistance, and if I drop to H4 I can see a double top - possibly too small to be significant.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp, daily.gif Size: 26 KB


So some great setup candles right in the zone for shorting,

But...

This would be picking a top. Price is still clearly in an uptrending channel, and the market has shown us nothing substantial enough to invalidate the long bias.

The possible scenario to the short side would be a retracement followed by a retest of the downward sloping trendline and then further decline, forming a new set of lower low and lower high, confirming the change in trend.

So until some form of confirmation, we remain long.

Would appreciate your thoughts/feedback/guidance,

Thanks and regards
  • #430
  • Oct 9, 2010 11:49pm Oct 9, 2010 11:49pm
Dan, What do you think of this set-up?
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  • #431
  • Oct 10, 2010 4:57am Oct 10, 2010 4:57am
Hi Dan and others

Thanks for a great thread which is a great help for a newbie like me who wants to learn to trade properly and not resort to using a robot!

With regard to your AUD/JPY trade on the 5th October, was this trade solely taken as a result of the hammer formation at the key support level of around 80000? I assume the extremely round number reinforces the support level?

Doesn't this hammer formation need to form at a swing low in order for it to be a valid trigger?

You have mentioned previously that you like to enter at a discount but price hasn't retraced much at all from last swing high.

I note that a hammer has now formed but of the wrong colour. Does this have any significance?

Lastly, I assume that if I were looking to trade this pair now, I would be waiting for another candlestick trigger to form at this suport level.


Thanks and please excuse my noob questions

Looking forward to learning from this thread

Mark

PS I am also in the UK. Do you use a spread betting company or use Alpari directly?
  • #432
  • Oct 10, 2010 8:09am Oct 10, 2010 8:09am
Hello Dan and guys,

Can you please have a look at my weekly chart and see if I'm on the right path to drawing the SR levels ? I treat those lines as zones rather than to pip touch (so I will watch what price is doing at the current level as it is at one of the lines).

Kindest Regards,

Cam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #433
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:26pm Oct 10, 2010 3:26pm
My first attempt at identifying a possible set up.

EUR/AUD. Shooting Star formed at trend line and at 50% Fib retracement line.

What do you think?


Thanks

Mark
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  • #434
  • Oct 10, 2010 3:48pm Oct 10, 2010 3:48pm
Hi Dan,

Sorry just a quick one... what time zone are your charts? As in for your dailies what time do they close?

Thanks
  • #435
  • Oct 11, 2010 1:23pm Oct 11, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting HxMark
My first attempt at identifying a possible set up.

EUR/AUD. Shooting Star formed at trend line and at 50% Fib retracement line.

What do you think?


Thanks

Mark
I have taken that set-up myself Mark,everything looked good for a short
  • #436
  • Oct 11, 2010 3:28pm Oct 11, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting HxMark
My first attempt at identifying a possible set up.

EUR/AUD. Shooting Star formed at trend line and at 50% Fib retracement line.

What do you think?


Thanks

Mark
I am also in this trade it looked good to me
  • #437
  • Oct 11, 2010 4:08pm Oct 11, 2010 4:08pm
Quoting bez3000
I am also in this trade it looked good to me
Hey fellas, this is one i didn't take, but i hope you make some pips.
I've attached my chart so you can see why. I use a couple of ma's which i've found invaluable, although i don't think Dan uses them, so feel free to ignore.
My reasons: The R/R didn't add up,trading into major support below, the shooting star was not at a swing high, it was on a retrace. It did respect a trendline however. The ma's are right below, acting as dynamic support in this example.
Anyway, just my take!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #438
  • Oct 12, 2010 2:33am Oct 12, 2010 2:33am
Hi all – I just wanted to write that you should listen to what Dan has to say…

Following his methods has turned my trading around, to the point where I am able to say “I haven’t had a single losing trade since I started following the method.” A year ago I never thought I’d be able to write that line. It goes with the territory that I have had a few break even trades, and there are 4 trades which are currently ongoing and have been for a few weeks. Currently I am up about 15% for the past month. This is an incredible turn around for me – I’ve been studying trading for 3 years and have been consistently losing small amounts or breaking even.

The beauty of this system is its simplicity – don’t try to over complicate it by adding this or that indicator or theory – trade it just as Dan has described here and you won’t go far wrong. The difficulty of course is following it without deviation. I’ve had a couple of occasions when my ‘voices’ were trying to persuade me to “take the money NOW – it’s sure to turn around soon!” but I managed to hold out and consequently my positions have grown. One of the good things is – once you have a couple of long term trades in profit there is a feeling that ‘things are happening’ which I find helps me to be patient in waiting for the next really good setup to come along.

Finally, someone wiser than me said “look for reasons not to take a trade”. If you have doubts about whether a setup is right, it probably isn't, so just don’t take it! Wait for the next one to come along (which usually won’t be very long).

I should probably point out that I haven’t touched counter trend trading at all – I’m just trading with the trend using daily candles. How much simpler can it get?

Thanks Dan for all your help.
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #439
  • Oct 12, 2010 3:56am Oct 12, 2010 3:56am
Hi Gododdin,

It's good to hear that you are doing well.

Please can you post charts of the trades you have taken?

Thank you,


Quoting gododdin
Hi all – I just wanted to write that you should listen to what Dan has to say…

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]Following his methods has turned my trading around, to the point where I am able to say “I haven’t had a single losing trade since I started following the method.”...
  • #440
  • Oct 12, 2010 5:31am Oct 12, 2010 5:31am
Hi Gododdin, do you see some good set ups for long term trade now? Thank you,
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