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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #256,501
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:53am Sep 28, 2010 4:53am
Quoting Bull_Bear
Position closed 1.5820, reverse buy

1.5820.. SL 1.5720.. TP 1.5990
Let the good times roll ..... BEER MONEY TM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #256,502
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:54am Sep 28, 2010 4:54am
Quoting gammase1
To follow on the first part of Cloggie's post:

http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/newsfeed...gold-investors
thank you gammase1, very friendly

will read it after finish my dayjob
  • #256,503
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:55am Sep 28, 2010 4:55am
atlast it breaks....
row row row your boat
  • #256,504
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:55am Sep 28, 2010 4:55am
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...l_nad_bear.gif
  • #256,505
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:55am Sep 28, 2010 4:55am
every time i scroll to higher TF they give me a very valid signal..
  • #256,506
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:57am Sep 28, 2010 4:57am
Daily t/f descending trend line around current price...has probably just breeched it to the upside....4hr shows the reamianing known potential resistance factors leading up to that 5997 Hi.

G/L

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/dc12967489.gif
ex member
  • #256,507
  • Edited 5:10am Sep 28, 2010 4:57am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting dag777


Many thanks for this detailed (and fast) answer.
Now i get it.
The learn effect by reading your post is much greater then all the webinars and high theoretical reports in the net.
From week to week you give me one more piece to complete my forexpuzzle,
thx for that

You welcome. A basic understanding of the Fundamentals is not always necessary to trade, however it does give you an edge. It becomes really nice when the technicals and fundamentals agree with each other, that gives you the big swings. Look at this morning, we have dollar weakness in the market and we get a good CA report from the UK. The CA deficit narrowed due to the income side, yes there was a larger trade deficit however that was more then offset by the increase in income surplus. That gave Cable a nice little boost.

Will the CA have a longer term effect in the days to come, I think so and expect a further rally in Cable. News is thin this week on the Sterling half of the pair, nothing really till Friday, so Cable will continue to be driven by the dollar half of the pair in the days to come. There is not a lot of reason out there right now to short Sterling.

As I posted earlier, my mid term target for the pair is still 5980, barring any unforeseen news coming out of the US that could strengthen the dollar (not likely)

The big factor coming out of the CA report is the effect it is having on the Balance of Payment and ultimately on QE, as long as the books balance in the UK and the CA keeps improving by either the income side or the trade side then there is less of a case for further QE and the market likes that. This is a very simplified way of looking at the chance of QE, but it does measure the chance of recovery. The biggest worry in the recovery for the UK was always the income side and now that slowly seems to take care of itself. OF course this is a double edged sword as the increase in Sterling would hurt the trade side of the CA. But lets be honest the whole problem in world wide currencies right now is the race to the bottom and as long as the dollar is winning that race Sterling has nothing to worry about. As long as the dollar continues to weaken and equities continue to climb together with the commodities I can see a good recovery of Sterling value over the medium to longer term.
  • #256,508
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:10am Sep 28, 2010 5:10am
How much supply in this previous 4hr swing hi zone leading up to 5909? Price is also in the fib extension zone of the last 4hr swing down from that previous 5866 Hi, ie move a-b.

G/L
Attached Image
ex member
  • #256,509
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:18am Sep 28, 2010 5:18am
Quoting cloggie
You welcome. A basic understanding of the Fundamentals is not always necessary to trade, however it does give you an edge. It becomes really nice when the technicals and fundamentals agree with each other, that gives you the big swings. Look at this morning, we have dollar weakness in the market and we get a good CA report from the UK. The CA deficit narrowed due to the income side, yes there was a larger trade deficit however that was more then offset by the increase in income surplus. That gave Cable a nice little boost.

Will the CA have a...
Since the ETF news came out i was strongly
upside oriented for cable and fibre and was buying dips all week long.
The CA news was an additional reason to long the pairs.
Unfortunately i closed 2 min. before the news because of uncertainty,
but hopped immediatly on the long side after data was out,
closed too early (at R1),
now waiting for a good pullback to get another ticket,
maybe around 1.5835


And thx, for explaining relationship between CA and QE, i donīt know it
  • #256,510
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:28am Sep 28, 2010 5:28am
Quoting dag777
Do you think DOW will break years high?

And thx, for explaining relationship between CA and QE, i donīt know it

The DOW is an entire different story on its own, the MF's and pension funds need 15,000 just to break even, I do see a higher hi on the DOW in the near future.

QE is based on money supply (M2) and it is used to artificially increase the availability of money and thereby increasing the churn rate of that money within the economy. Having a better CA means that there is a "natural" flow of money to do that and it will take the reason away for further QE. The BOE will only use QE as a last resort and would prefer to see the CA and BOP adjust itself due to a recovery.
  • #256,511
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:29am Sep 28, 2010 5:29am

$EURUSD: Comments from an ex-Chinese central banker that Dollar on the verge of major devaluation are weighing on the buck.

  • #256,512
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:38am Sep 28, 2010 5:38am
Quoting winsome

$EURUSD: Comments from an ex-Chinese central banker that Dollar on the verge of major devaluation are weighing on the buck.



im not very good about fundies..can you explain more ?
  • #256,513
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:40am Sep 28, 2010 5:40am
looking to buy at the pullback to EMA100 (1M TF).
  • #256,514
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:41am Sep 28, 2010 5:41am
Quoting winsome

$EURUSD: Comments from an ex-Chinese central banker that Dollar on the verge of major devaluation are weighing on the buck.


Not quite. Yu was only an advisor, not a banker and he said that he is worried about the yields, as China would be as they are becoming the US's banker right now. Just a war of words with the US having a go at Chinese currency the obvious answer was always China having a go at US's yields.

China will do something about the Renminbi when the US does something about its yields.
  • #256,515
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:47am Sep 28, 2010 5:47am
GU possibilities:
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  • #256,516
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:52am Sep 28, 2010 5:52am
hope this is not developing into a broading triangle if it is then then the upmove may be huge..assuming this mofo will go up
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  • #256,517
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:53am Sep 28, 2010 5:53am
Quoting PipChick
GU possibilities:
Surely you mean wait for bullish hidden divergence to go long?
  • #256,518
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:54am Sep 28, 2010 5:54am
Quoting PipChick
GU possibilities:

I think your chart should say bullish hidden divergence not bearish ? Bullish into an uptrend, bearish into a downtrend...Price has found some demand just shy of the 38.2% of the current intraday lo-hi/last 1hr fractal swing up...@ the botom of the previous 1hr swing hi (=prev res=potential rbs zone) @ Dly R1...5min hidden divergence play there but didn't trade it for various reasons...

G/L
Attached Image
ex member
  • #256,519
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:55am Sep 28, 2010 5:55am
Quoting Sutts
Surely you mean wait for bullish hidden divergence to go long?
Sorry, yes meant bullish. Will edit it..
  • #256,520
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:55am Sep 28, 2010 5:55am
Quoting cloggie
The DOW is an entire different story on its own, the MF's and pension funds need 15,000 just to break even, I do see a higher hi on the DOW in the near future.

QE is based on money supply (M2) and it is used to artificially increase the availability of money and thereby increasing the churn rate of that money within the economy. Having a better CA means that there is a "natural" flow of money to do that and it will take the reason away for further QE. The BOE will only use QE as a last resort and would prefer to see the CA and BOP adjust itself...
just wanted to hear your evaluation on the DOW,
cause i have some investmentfunds from before Lehmann crash,
at 11000 i have the value as before the crisis and have to make a decision.
I think the better solution for fueling economy is doing it the "natural" way, not by printing masses of artificially money, wonder how long FED can continue doing this, i think they already have panic about deflationairy tendences?
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