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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #256,481
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:09am Sep 28, 2010 4:09am
Quoting iqyu5an
still down to test 5735 ish...
Ok why do u think that? Mind sharing your view?
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #256,482
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:13am Sep 28, 2010 4:13am
for longer.. i can see 567x also...but time will tell ....


Quoting kuroro001
It's even possible to see 1,5700 once 1,5780 is cleared.
not euphoria follower
  • #256,483
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:13am Sep 28, 2010 4:13am
Quoting Bull_Bear
I pop in and out nowdays.

How been buddy?
took the day of work bro..im good bro! yes this thread has got a bit nuts lately..hope u well as well?..

this is how im seing this area bro..if this top breaks..1.60 is on and i reckon it will break out into a new range where 1.6 will form solid support
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  • #256,484
  • Edited 4:55am Sep 28, 2010 4:16am | Edited 4:55am
i see it based on daily candle bro... would you please check top of candle 17 sept and 23 sept ?

correct me if im wrong......

however i am bull bias also ... but i see a correction for a while based on yesterday candle

Quoting Bull_Bear
Ok why do u think that? Mind sharing your view?
not euphoria follower
  • #256,485
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:21am Sep 28, 2010 4:21am
Quoting cloggie
This month has been driven by risk. So far risk appetite has been full on in equities and most commodities. We can all agree that the euro and the dollar are having a race to the bottom and there is nothing good to say about either, the ECB is buying up debt like it is going out of fashion and the yields of the T-bills have been dropping like a lead balloon. So the only thing to differentiate and identify the money flow is risk aversion/appetite.

[b]So far we have seen Gold reaching 1300 and all the ETF unwinding their hedges that tells me that...
Hello cloggie,

i like reading your (and gammase1) posts about the fundamental view.
Itīs always a good lesson of macro economic cycles.
Yesterday you made an interesting post in which you refere to the goldprice in relationship with the ETF actions.
This news came over the ticker a few days back ,
i have taken advantage of it but i donīt really understand
the background of this action.
What is meant by "unwinding their hedges",
since the news came over the ticker gold is rising strong,
does it mean ETF are buying gold to hedge their investments?
How long do these transactions last (days, weeks?)?
If you find time to give me (us) 2-3 sentences of explanation,
that would be great.

Have nice trading day
  • #256,486
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:22am Sep 28, 2010 4:22am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i honestly believe technicals can forecast change..ive noticed when ever theres a major support or resistance, something always seems to happen to bring about the changes..its crazy

take this chart..price goes back to the 60ema and bounces of it..news is relased just as ema is visted..madness or genius!!
I always hesitate with the word 'predict' but to the extent that they can tell us the higher probability, then yes absolutely ...The post data run-up and pullback off 5838 created such a situation where the confluence of a 1min hidden divergence at the then 38.2% 5778-5838 suggested that more upside was more probable than downside from that 38.2% fib....'predictive' No but it was a repeating trading edge that suggested the higher probability of one thing over another...Hang on-isn't that what prediction is !? Lol !!!

G/L
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ex member
  • #256,487
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:26am Sep 28, 2010 4:26am
Quoting bbmac
I always hesitate with the word 'predict' but to the extent that they can tell us the higher probability, then yes absolutely ...The post data run-up and pullback off 5838 created such a situation where the confluence of a 1min hidden divergence at the then 38.2% 5778-5838 suggested that more upside was more probable than downside from that 38.2% fib....'predictive' No but it was a repeating trading edge that suggested the higher probability of one thing over another...Hang on-isn't that what prediction is !? Lol !!!

G/L
how the hell u spot all this on 1 minute chart is beyond me
great chart..u obviously on the ball
  • #256,488
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:28am Sep 28, 2010 4:28am
Quoting wormboy
hong kong
enjoy your trip bro.. selamat hari raya, maaf zahir batin.
  • #256,489
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:29am Sep 28, 2010 4:29am
Quoting A-speculator
enjoy your trip bro.. selamat hari raya, maaf zahir batin.

waa raya kat hong kong...sampaikan salam buat sedara islam kat sana...hehehehe
  • #256,490
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:33am Sep 28, 2010 4:33am
I would like to say, everyone has their own opinion where it will go. New traders in here should not blindly following anybody.
  • #256,491
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:35am Sep 28, 2010 4:35am
Oh Nooo000..Bulls are coming!!!..
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  • #256,492
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:37am Sep 28, 2010 4:37am
the sum b*tch! did a fakey to the downside

bull flag if u went short then technically u got it!! books say look for breakout in direction of the trend..and that aint down
macd neutralization at it best..(bull flag ladies)

Quoting Vuraziq
Oh Nooo000..Bulls are coming!!!..http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/surprise.gif
thats rite!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/surprise.gif
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  • #256,493
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:38am Sep 28, 2010 4:38am
Quoting dag777
Hello cloggie,

i like reading your (and gammase1) posts about the fundamental view.
Itīs always a good lesson of macro economic cycles.
Yesterday you made an interesting post in which you refere to the goldprice in relationship with the ETF actions.
This news came over the ticker a few days back ,
i have taken advantage of it but i donīt really understand
the background of this action.
What is meant by "unwinding their hedges",
since the news came over the ticker gold is rising strong,
does it mean ETF are buying gold to hedge...

For years the Gold producers and ETF's borrowed gold from the Central banks to sell it on the market to hedge against the falling trend, some held hedges going back to 2002. As far as I know, and one will never know for sure, all of the producers and ETF's have now unwound their hedges meaning that none of them expect to see lower prices any time soon. Of course they have been known to be wrong before, but aside from that it clearly shows an impetus back into gold as safe haven and away from the dollar.

How does this affect us as traders? Money is flowing away from the dollar and into gold, mid term expect dollar to drop. On an intra day basis it means that trading cable and fibre will be very closely related to equities and commodity prices so keeping a DOW/es chart open along a Gold chart will give you a better edge in trading the currencies.

For the first time in almost a decade the big boys are shying away from the dollar as safe haven currency, time will tell but I am expecting higher hi's in Gold and equities and dollar to drop for now.
  • #256,494
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:42am Sep 28, 2010 4:42am
Quoting cloggie
For years the Gold producers and ETF's borrowed gold from the Central banks to sell it on the market to hedge against the falling trend, some held hedges going back to 2002. As far as I know, and one will never know for sure, all of the producers and ETF's have now unwound their hedges meaning that none of them expect to see lower prices any time soon. Of course they have been known to be wrong before, but aside from that it clearly shows an impetus back into gold as safe haven and away from the dollar.

How does this affect us as traders? Money...
To follow on the first part of Cloggie's post:

http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/newsfeed...gold-investors
  • #256,495
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:44am Sep 28, 2010 4:44am
Quoting gammase1
To follow on the first part of Cloggie's post:

http://www.hedgehogs.net/pg/newsfeed...gold-investors
many thanks to you and cloggie
  • #256,496
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:45am Sep 28, 2010 4:45am
Quoting cloggie
For years the Gold producers and ETF's borrowed gold from the Central banks to sell it on the market to hedge against the falling trend, some held hedges going back to 2002. As far as I know, and one will never know for sure, all of the producers and ETF's have now unwound their hedges meaning that none of them expect to see lower prices any time soon. Of course they have been known to be wrong before, but aside from that it clearly shows an impetus back into gold as safe haven and away from the dollar.

How does this affect us as traders? Money...
yeah thats pretty much what i have been doing..oil and gold looking to go up invest in cable and euro..oil is depleting as well so its demand shall increase..cable is low as a mofo as well..so i think probability to buy cable was good.. thats how my simple mind looked at it anyway
  • #256,497
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:48am Sep 28, 2010 4:48am
Quoting AdrianHNV
many thanks to you and cloggie

Lots of times in trading it all comes down to finding the money flows, once you can see where the money is going you can see what effect it has on currency pairs. The story of this month is clearly risk appetite and dollar weakness.

For Cable I am eyeing 5980.
  • #256,498
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:51am Sep 28, 2010 4:51am
[quote=cloggie;4053935]For years the Gold producers and ETF's borrowed gold from the Central banks to sell it on the market to hedge against the falling trend, some held hedges going back to 2002... quote]


Many thanks for this detailed (and fast) answer.
Now i get it.
The learn effect by reading your post is much greater then all the webinars and high theoretical reports in the net.
From week to week you give me one more piece to complete my forexpuzzle,
thx for that
  • #256,499
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:52am Sep 28, 2010 4:52am
http://theonesilove.files.wordpress....-gemelas-1.jpg
  • #256,500
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:52am Sep 28, 2010 4:52am
Quoting cloggie
Lots of times in trading it all comes down to finding the money flows, once you can see where the money is going you can see what effect it has on currency pairs. The story of this month is clearly risk appetite and dollar weakness.

For Cable I am eyeing 5980.
tq
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