Dislikedyea my overshoot numbers are bn 3710-3751......but most notably numbers pointing to 3737,3747.Ignored
Pretty nice channel here. I entered orders ranging 3710-47. 50 fib might be a good short scalp at 3509.
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COT: The precious data ignored
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- Sep 22, 2010 9:19pm Sep 22, 2010 9:19pm
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well as you know, i always struggle at entries and exits of my trades, wastings gazillions of pips and sacrificing my nerves, i started looking into ew. where to start, that was a huge problem and it took me a few hours to find a posting here on ff that i could use as a springboard. i have a target projection from A to B of 161.8% and i come out at 38076, right above the "rounded bottom" we saw in february to march... never been retested. your target and entry is right below that mofu-zone... what do you think? (apart from you're right and...
Hi Hatch, not to interfere, but I agree on your A B C pattern theory.
however I have a little different view...
A few trendlines + 50% fib of the 1.5144 high could be a reversal zone for eu.
A-B-C correction pattern:
3490 is the minimum requirement for wave C (which is 61.8% of wave A). and 3510 is the 50% fib retrace.
A big question is wether bulls have enough power left to penetrate much of the 1.35 - 1.3650 area after a straight 800-900 pips rally? 1.35> had significant support on the way down.
Anyways, a fairly heavy correction is due. On that basis I'll bet (trade) that 3500 - 3550 is the top for now.
Another thing I read today is that trader sentiment was at an extreme high of 93% bulls yesterday. This is a typical extreme before trends tend to change.
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Hmmm... 
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- Sep 22, 2010 9:59pm Sep 22, 2010 9:59pm
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Wow, I didn't know sentiment was that high for bulls. That's a little more than what it was at 1.51.
I'm not sure how much more bad news EZ can take without a move down after this leg up w/o any down candles on daily for quite some time. Germanys manufacturing was twice as bad as projected. Also risk aversion may be coming back a nudge with things like the Kiwis huge reaction down and the dollar starting to be seen as a value by some Asian nations compared to the commodity currencies. A small uptick in US employment numbers could bring things back...
Yes, 93% bulls is interesting. Maybe we'll get a final push tomorrow to complete the C wave during news release. I'll be ready
Some interesting reading about sentiments:
Daily Sentiment Index at Extremes: Typical Behavior
In gathering over 18 years of daily sentiment a number of clear patterns have emerged.
They are as follows:
* When the DSI rises to the 85% area or higher the odds of a top are significant
* When the DSI falls to the 15% area or lower, the odds of a bottom are significant
* The longer the DSI remains at a high level, the larger and longer the coming decline is likely to be
* The longer the DSI remains at a low level, the larger and longer the coming rally is likely to be
* The small trader is NOT always wrong at turning points they are USUALLY wrong at EXTREMES
www.Trade-Futures.com
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