Dislikedyea my overshoot numbers are bn 3710-3751......but most notably numbers pointing to 3737,3747.Ignored
Pretty nice channel here. I entered orders ranging 3710-47. 50 fib might be a good short scalp at 3509.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #295,221
- Sep 22, 2010 8:20pm Sep 22, 2010 8:20pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts
- #295,223
- Sep 22, 2010 8:38pm Sep 22, 2010 8:38pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #295,226
- Sep 22, 2010 9:19pm Sep 22, 2010 9:19pm
- | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: The Trend is Your Friend | 1,123 Posts
well as you know, i always struggle at entries and exits of my trades, wastings gazillions of pips and sacrificing my nerves, i started looking into ew. where to start, that was a huge problem and it took me a few hours to find a posting here on ff that i could use as a springboard. i have a target projection from A to B of 161.8% and i come out at 38076, right above the "rounded bottom" we saw in february to march... never been retested. your target and entry is right below that mofu-zone... what do you think? (apart from you're right and...
Hi Hatch, not to interfere, but I agree on your A B C pattern theory.
however I have a little different view...
A few trendlines + 50% fib of the 1.5144 high could be a reversal zone for eu.
A-B-C correction pattern:
3490 is the minimum requirement for wave C (which is 61.8% of wave A). and 3510 is the 50% fib retrace.
A big question is wether bulls have enough power left to penetrate much of the 1.35 - 1.3650 area after a straight 800-900 pips rally? 1.35> had significant support on the way down.
Anyways, a fairly heavy correction is due. On that basis I'll bet (trade) that 3500 - 3550 is the top for now.
Another thing I read today is that trader sentiment was at an extreme high of 93% bulls yesterday. This is a typical extreme before trends tend to change.
- #295,227
- Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm Sep 22, 2010 9:30pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
Hmmm... 
- #295,233
- Sep 22, 2010 9:59pm Sep 22, 2010 9:59pm
- | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: The Trend is Your Friend | 1,123 Posts
Wow, I didn't know sentiment was that high for bulls. That's a little more than what it was at 1.51.
I'm not sure how much more bad news EZ can take without a move down after this leg up w/o any down candles on daily for quite some time. Germanys manufacturing was twice as bad as projected. Also risk aversion may be coming back a nudge with things like the Kiwis huge reaction down and the dollar starting to be seen as a value by some Asian nations compared to the commodity currencies. A small uptick in US employment numbers could bring things back...
Yes, 93% bulls is interesting. Maybe we'll get a final push tomorrow to complete the C wave during news release. I'll be ready
Some interesting reading about sentiments:
Daily Sentiment Index at Extremes: Typical Behavior
In gathering over 18 years of daily sentiment a number of clear patterns have emerged.
They are as follows:
* When the DSI rises to the 85% area or higher the odds of a top are significant
* When the DSI falls to the 15% area or lower, the odds of a bottom are significant
* The longer the DSI remains at a high level, the larger and longer the coming decline is likely to be
* The longer the DSI remains at a low level, the larger and longer the coming rally is likely to be
* The small trader is NOT always wrong at turning points they are USUALLY wrong at EXTREMES
www.Trade-Futures.com
- #295,236
- Sep 22, 2010 10:06pm Sep 22, 2010 10:06pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts
- #295,238
- Sep 22, 2010 10:34pm Sep 22, 2010 10:34pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
- #295,240
- Sep 22, 2010 10:45pm Sep 22, 2010 10:45pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,125 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can