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  • #295,201
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:09pm Sep 22, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting mfoste1
umm I can't really think of any.....but its just basic global macro theory. When investors want to take on risk, they will buy equities, commodities and high yielding currencies such as aud nzd cad. When they want to avoid risk they buy usd jpy, chf and gold.
Ok that makes sense... where does the EUR and GBP fall into the mix?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #295,202
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:20pm Sep 22, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting pres78
Ok that makes sense... where does the EUR and GBP fall into the mix?

They are risk currencies as well. However holding them will not produce the interest yield returns that aud and nzd do.
  • #295,203
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:40pm Sep 22, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
undated chart..(added yellow) the green remains longer target. the yellow even longer.. you can see interaction at levels (bounces rejections). we are currently in the turn area(mofu)for 1876 and 5144...most important levels here 3317 3510 37029....
no change.. interaction between lines still good for scalps. baby bear for 3349 still valid.. if reached slip then bounce will be needed for target #2 3327 slip to 3316/17 or murrey 3306 not unexpected. ..pink box shows little bear mofu reaction..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,204
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:46pm Sep 22, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
no change.. interaction between lines still good for scalps. baby bear for 3349 still valid.. if reached slip then bounce will be needed for target #2 3327 slip to 3316/17 or murrey 3306 not unexpected. ..pink box shows little bear mofu reaction..
If it does make it down to 3306 MM line 6/8 do you think it will respect the strong reverse properties of the line?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #295,205
  • Sep 22, 2010 6:56pm Sep 22, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
no change.. interaction between lines still good for scalps. baby bear for 3349 still valid.. if reached slip then bounce will be needed for target #2 3327 slip to 3316/17 or murrey 3306 not unexpected. ..pink box shows little bear mofu reaction..
stopped out last night eu short at be+2 pips.. but lost them on 3316 short re-entry short. then made them back on eu long triggered at 2225... currently short..eu at be 3407 (green level).. also short ej aj and ea.. ea sl is wide and im gonna add if we go higher.. up to 4150/4210ish.... ea is not for nobs.

also have large pending shorts on eu. at/above levels on green/yellow chart labeled as targets. in line with the larger mofu taked about earlier
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,206
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:05pm Sep 22, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting pres78
If it does make it down to 3306 MM line 6/8 do you think it will respect the strong reverse properties of the line?
below 3316 or 3306 its hard because of whip action.. i always try to enter above an area like that.. so my scalp i have running atm may get there.. if so im in another boat then a new entry. the bad part is i lose a lot of winning trades at be.. there is no easy answer. the advantage is i walk away.. strong s/r seem to get revisits many times.. unless news changes things for now the trend is up..targets on the charts are my best top choices..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,207
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:06pm Sep 22, 2010 7:06pm
If the H4 shooting star won't broken upwards 1.3440 I hold the downs around Pivot mR1 1.3421 southwards and will wait till daily comes down, too in the next days with this absolutely worthless euro. It's time that the euro has to leave the panic room and will go one's own way till 0.85 this or next year, but in this high atmosphere dressed like a scarecrow!.
  • #295,208
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:07pm Sep 22, 2010 7:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
below 3316 or 3306 its hard because of whip action.. i always try to enter above an area like that.. so my scalp i have running atm may get there.. if so im in another boat then a new entry. the bad part is i lose a lot of winning trades at be.. there is no easy answer. the advantage is i walk away.. strong s/r seem to get revisits many times.. unless news changes things for now the trend is up..targets on the charts are my best top choices..
I have a trade targeting 1.3341 from 1.3401 trying to decide whether to hold it or cut it loose.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #295,209
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:10pm Sep 22, 2010 7:10pm
Yes the EUR and USD are fighting a war of weakness... bad new after bad news. Which one will win the war of the weakness. Eventually if the EUR does not show some good news people make just jump back onto the USD for "safety"...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #295,210
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:15pm Sep 22, 2010 7:15pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/...kening-dollar/

"What makes the dollar’s role trickier this time around is that most other nations want a cheaper currency to promote their own exports and boost growth.

Other central banks, including those in Japan and Brazil, are actively working to devalue their currencies. Their intervention–along with China’s tight grip on the yuan–suggests the dollar might not slide that much or for very long. Indeed, another global shock could send investors back to the safety of dollar holdings."

It was all decided over putas and caviar at Jackson Hole. I have a feeling the number is somewhere around $1.35, give or take a nickel. This rally might keep on truckin for another few hundred pips but I won't be surprised to see the old european sovereign debt chestnut pulled out (or something better? - that mf is getting kinda old) and passed around in the press, with a decent retracement resulting. It takes time to turn a steamboat around in a bathtub.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #295,211
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:16pm Sep 22, 2010 7:16pm
Either way, ...usd worthless, ...euro worthless,... why trading worthless currencies any longer?

EU Trading seems to be in the next months more out of order...
  • #295,212
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:26pm Sep 22, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting pres78
I have a trade targeting 1.3341 from 1.3401 trying to decide whether to hold it or cut it loose.
take half let the rest run.. at least you will feel better if it heads north.. if you dont take profit, there will be no profit.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,213
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:26pm Sep 22, 2010 7:26pm
The yuan is at 6.66 - enter the Dragon.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #295,214
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:28pm Sep 22, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting The Fool
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/...kening-dollar/

It was all decided over putas and caviar at Jackson Hole. I have a feeling the number is somewhere around $1.35, give or take a nickel. This rally might keep on truckin for another few hundred pips but I won't be surprised to see the old european sovereign debt chestnut pulled out (or something better? - that mf is getting kinda old) and passed around in the press, with a decent retracement resulting. It takes time to turn a steamboat around...
  • #295,215
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:30pm Sep 22, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting The Fool
The yuan is at 6.66 - enter the Dragon.
its a shame, i cant trade it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,216
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:32pm Sep 22, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting mfoste1
i got a sell there. but we usually overshoot.. so 3710 is second choice
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #295,217
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:33pm Sep 22, 2010 7:33pm
150 pip spread, no place for a scalper
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #295,218
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:40pm Sep 22, 2010 7:40pm
There are a few newcomers here recently so I thought I might join as well, and take the opportunity of the first post to express my appreciation for this forum and the dedication of so many members!

I have been a frequent reader for the last one and half years but never felt the need to share my thoughts. I appreciate everyone giving their opinion, no matter if I it's bull- or bearsh_t, it serves everyone to improve their skills.

I went through the 'school' at babypips.com 2 yrs ago, and am trading on a microaccount for the last half year - it is growing modestly, due to conservative risk manangement and small position sizes.

I focus on EUR USD and JPY and mainly use MACD and RSI on 1-5min and 4h-1day tf in combination with ICHIMOKU, which I find a potentially very powerful indicator.

I'd be interested about your thoughts on ICHIMOKU in general and as alternative to determine levels of support/resistance and fibonacci.

as for the EURUSD am still holding the long positions from 1.2890 (h4) and 1.30200 (d1)
  • #295,219
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:50pm Sep 22, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
i got a sell there. but we usually overshoot.. so 3710 is second choice

yea my overshoot numbers are bn 3710-3751......but most notably numbers pointing to 3737,3747.
  • #295,220
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:59pm Sep 22, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
stopped out last night eu short at be+2 pips.. but lost them on 3316 short re-entry short. then made them back on eu long triggered at 2225... currently short..eu at be 3407 (green level).. also short ej aj and ea.. ea sl is wide and im gonna add if we go higher.. up to 4150/4210ish.... ea is not for nobs.

also have large pending shorts on eu. at/above levels on green/yellow chart labeled as targets. in line with the larger mofu taked about earlier
well as you know, i always struggle at entries and exits of my trades, wastings gazillions of pips and sacrificing my nerves, i started looking into ew. where to start, that was a huge problem and it took me a few hours to find a posting here on ff that i could use as a springboard. i have a target projection from A to B of 161.8% and i come out at 38076, right above the "rounded bottom" we saw in february to march... never been retested. your target and entry is right below that mofu-zone... what do you think? (apart from you're right and i'm wrong )
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