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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,461
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:15am Sep 12, 2010 11:15am
Quoting kengur
this must be negative for risk, i.e. GBP/USD as well...eur/chf also...
On the other hand, it will result in fewer loans and less growth in the business sectour and probably increased unemployment.

It really is a mixed picture.
  • #252,462
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:21am Sep 12, 2010 11:21am
Quoting moonchild
On the other hand, it will result in fewer loans and less growth in the business sectour and probably increased unemployment.

It really is a mixed picture.

Yup, you are spot on. Every percentage point increase in Tier I adds 15bps to the cost of borrowing money, which with interest rates at near zero is not that significant, however with most peripheral countries in the EU being shaky at best it will have a direct result on growth and recovery. Some studies from earlier this year, before the last euro crash on the back of bond prices of the peripheral countries, stated that the amount of borrowing available from commercial lenders in the EU would need to shrink by 1Trn to meet Basel III proposals then, the added capital requirements now talked about, the final agreement will be published at 1600GMT, would increase that by quite a bit.

We now have a trade off, banks will be better capitalised and therefore better placed to handle the next calamity, however the cost to the economy has significantly increased. Basel III will have a greater impact on the EU then the US.
  • #252,463
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:29am Sep 12, 2010 11:29am
UK problems start to mount


there is talk 'on the market' that it is quite a good probabil. to expand QE' so... sell gbp.
  • #252,464
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:35am Sep 12, 2010 11:35am
Quoting ingmarforex
UK problems start to mount


there is talk 'on the market' that it is quite a good probabil. to expand QE' so... sell gbp.
UK are not the only one with problems. The whole world is in a mess right now and by comparison at least the current government has started to address the debt problem.

The old adage comes in... buy the rumour, sell the news or in this case, sell the rumour, buy the news...

I have kids to bath and put to bed. See you all soon!
  • #252,465
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:41am Sep 12, 2010 11:41am
gbp/aud, gbp/chf, gbp/cad , gbp/nzd.. And eur/chf, eur/usd, eur/aud, eur/cad, eur/nzd... Great exposure isnt it?
  • #252,466
  • Sep 12, 2010 12:43pm Sep 12, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting IbkA
Hey guys, you're both my buddies, what on earth are you doing fighting each other!!!

This old woman's going to come and get you if you're not careful, and I will find you
Now remember everyone's strategy, account size, personality, and everything else it takes to become a successful trader is DIFFERENT!

So it's best to embrace the differences, and fight the 'market' together, rather than one another. Not really worth fighting one another when they recently said on Bloomberg that over 4 trillion dollars is traded in the market EVERY DAY,...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,467
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:22pm Sep 12, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting ingmarforex
UK problems start to mount


there is talk 'on the market' that it is quite a good probabil. to expand QE' so... sell gbp.
bro..one things ..why BOE did not increase the rate last week? n only BOC. Not yet able to printing more money? why?

Think....

p/s : I would expect this week will be bloody damm good to trade on GU ...
  • #252,468
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:33pm Sep 12, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting kengur
this must be negative for risk, i.e. GBP/USD as well...eur/chf also...
This is not going to happen overnight, Basle III first needs to be ratified in November at the G20, then the banks will be given time to adjust to the new capital requirement, now rumoured to be at 7%, up from 4%. It only really matters to the EU banks, they need to raise the most, the UK and US are both meeting the new requirements. As a matter of fact the US and UK wanted to go for 10% but got voted down.

But yes Basle III will mainly hurt the EU.
  • #252,469
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:22pm Sep 12, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting bbakker
... Forget trading... I'm going to turn to farming
Digger is already one step ahead of me
  • #252,470
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:33pm Sep 12, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting cloggie
This is not going to happen overnight, Basle III first needs to be ratified in November at the G20, then the banks will be given time to adjust to the new capital requirement, now rumoured to be at 7%, up from 4%. It only really matters to the EU banks, they need to raise the most, the UK and US are both meeting the new requirements. As a matter of fact the US and UK wanted to go for 10% but got voted down.

But yes Basle III will mainly hurt the EU.
Yeah, just read the report, will definately slow growth and create the need for more QE as the economies ground to a halt...

Like you said though, it will have a longer term impact seeing as they have been given a couple of years to implement...

With Risk on this week (My Thoughts) I would expect Euro to finally drop below 1.2600 and cable to break 1.5330 and continue down...

Not really too worried about the larger picture, I'm gonna ride her both ways. This is my 4th week live and need a positive week to give me my 1st positive month!

Then it's time to step up my capital and start really earning some bucks
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,471
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:35pm Sep 12, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting bbakker
Digger is already one step ahead of me
lol, better get a nice big chunk of trading profits put away to get a nice start ha ha , got started digging sugar beets last week so fall has begun here cheers and good pipping to all
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  • #252,472
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:58pm Sep 12, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting digger1
lol, better get a nice big chunk of trading profits put away to get a nice start ha ha , got started digging sugar beets last week so fall has begun here cheers and good pipping to all Attachment
LOL... good point! A few thousand bucks is going to get me jack sheet, maybe an acre if I'm lucky Good luck with the digging!
  • #252,473
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:14pm Sep 12, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Yeah, just read the report, will definately slow growth and create the need for more QE as the economies ground to a halt...

Like you said though, it will have a longer term impact seeing as they have been given a couple of years to implement...

With Risk on this week (My Thoughts) I would expect Euro to finally drop below 1.2600 and cable to break 1.5330 and continue down...

Not really too worried about the larger picture, I'm gonna ride her both ways. This is my 4th week live and need a positive week to give me my 1st positive month! ...

Details are coming out slowly, Basel III will go in effect Jan 2013, with 0.5% increment per year.

With this agreement in place we could actually see more risk appetite as the banks need to start looking for revenue elsewhere to make up the shortfall in their loanbook.
  • #252,474
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:21pm Sep 12, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting cloggie
Details are coming out slowly, Basel III will go in effect Jan 2013, with 0.5% increment per year.

With this agreement in place we could actually see more risk appetite as the banks need to start looking for revenue elsewhere to make up the shortfall in their loanbook.
Aah, so you reckon they will be doing more investing to try and make money? well, whatever happens it'll have to wait till 2moro morning...

I didn't sleep alot last night as we had our 1st match and obviously had to be ridiculous afterwards

See you all at LO!
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #252,475
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:20pm Sep 12, 2010 4:20pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Aah, so you reckon they will be doing more investing to try and make money? well, whatever happens it'll have to wait till 2moro morning...

I didn't sleep alot last night as we had our 1st match and obviously had to be ridiculous afterwards

See you all at LO!

It is not going to affect the price today, tomorrow, next week or even next month. It is good to keep in the back of your mind as one more piece of the hole to line up on the cheese.

Yes, the EU banks will need to find an additional source of revenue to make up for the loss of loan revenue, so their prop shops will be busy coming up with something.

The majority of the cost will just be passed on to the consumers.

Risk aversion/appetite will still come down to the lesser of 2 evils and as long as the Big funds continue to try to drive equities up, that's where the risk appetite will be.
  • #252,476
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:28pm Sep 12, 2010 4:28pm
Quoting pawpaw1000
Yeah, just read the report, will definately slow growth and create the need for more QE as the economies ground to a halt...

Like you said though, it will have a longer term impact seeing as they have been given a couple of years to implement...

With Risk on this week (My Thoughts) I would expect Euro to finally drop below 1.2600 and cable to break 1.5330 and continue down...

Not really too worried about the larger picture, I'm gonna ride her both ways. This is my 4th week live and need a positive week to give me my 1st positive month! ...
Weekly close with e/u and g/u not favorite close i was waiting it and start feel not comfortable about my long position even my long term view still Long
So i will close my position , Watching turning point for bull (In my chart if it drop down) 1.5170 how PA act there

All take care and
Catch u Later
  • #252,477
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:51pm Sep 12, 2010 4:51pm
Looking at the weekly right here. Currently at 38.2, if this doesn't reach 50% this month I'll eat my hat.
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  • #252,478
  • Sep 12, 2010 6:13pm Sep 12, 2010 6:13pm
Open to current, 4 majors plus 2 corresponding.

Directional analysis based on 2 supporting pairs, EG/UJ.

Support zones and targeted zones.

Current trends based on double hulls...purple/aqua lines.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #252,479
  • Sep 12, 2010 6:27pm Sep 12, 2010 6:27pm
I just read this post linked from FF. Just wondering if u guys have any comment on that

http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/2010/0...s/#comment-107
  • #252,480
  • Sep 12, 2010 7:18pm Sep 12, 2010 7:18pm
Good start to the day, closing over 200 on 4 pairs with 2 lots.

Looks like we got a start to a killer week ahead of us!

Good luck through the rest of Asian session, watching for support on the 5m charts and continuations through London.

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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