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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #252,441
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:10am Sep 12, 2010 9:10am
push price from 5296 to 5532 in one daily candle and bear needs 2 days effort to push back price to 5356 to close the week >>> what does it mean ?

rgds,iqyu

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
not euphoria follower
  • #252,442
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:33am Sep 12, 2010 9:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
trading requires patience and no emotion..longer term develops u so u feel nothing..stress free..its the folks that have no clue that will get caught here..and that the nature of the best..to any1 who knows this is text book movements..thats why i love it when magix open his mouth..the market will put a boot in it for me

however i have much respect for him..he know we just playing
Here is an article that will tickle your fancy -

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...ing-03507.aspx

Read into it what you will!

Here is my h4 chart -

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100912_gu_h4.jpg Size: 150 KB


I have marked off my supply and demand zones.

Black zones are confirmation zones only
Green zone will be my long swing opportunity
Red zone will be my short swing opportunity
Orange zones are also swing opportunities
Black dotted line is 50% of 2009 hi/lo
Blue lines are fibs of 2010 lo and recent hi

My last swing short hit my trailing stop on the 8th... oh well... it was my 3rd runner and I did make some nice pips out of the trade. So I have no swing trades open on cable right now. I do have one on EU, last runner which is currently +176.

I have not created an order for the green zone as I want to see how price moves to this area. 50% fib gives the green zone a nice confluence. A slow meander down and I might not pull the trigger. A fast move down to this area and I will be in there like a shot!

Who knows how this lady will play out... anything can happen!

I wish you success with your trading!
  • #252,443
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:35am Sep 12, 2010 9:35am
Quoting iqyu5an
push price from 5296 to 5532 in one daily candle and bear needs 2 days effort to push back price to 5356 to close the week >>> what does it mean ?

rgds,iqyu

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
Perhaps significant that cable had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move.... smart money selling maybe and I would say a lot of stop losses were taken out, but as we all know cable is not the most predictable pair, good luck with your trades..
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  • #252,444
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:42am Sep 12, 2010 9:42am
Quoting Temps
I'm with you got it at 15140 ish.....
Looks like we're singing of the same hymn sheet now
  • #252,445
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:50am Sep 12, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Temps
Perhaps significant that cable had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move.... smart money selling maybe and I would say a lot of stop losses were taken out, but as we all know cable is not the most predictable pair, good luck with your trades..

...."had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move" ...... indicating something in 5296 ?

rgds,iqyu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
not euphoria follower
  • #252,446
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:58am Sep 12, 2010 9:58am
Quoting iqyu5an
...."had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move" ...... indicating something in 5296 ?

rgds,iqyu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
I'm sorry i dont quite get what your question is? your bias is obviously long, I am only going on what my charts say and the volume was almost double on the up move than what it was on the low of 5296.... best of luck with your trades.
  • #252,447
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:00am Sep 12, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Temps
I'm sorry i dont quite get what your question is? your bias is obviously long, I am only going on what my charts say and the volume was almost double on the up move than what it was on the low of 5296.... best of luck with your trades.
here is detail of my bias : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670

Rgds,iqyu
not euphoria follower
  • #252,448
  • Edited 10:34am Sep 12, 2010 10:07am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting iqyu5an
...."had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move" ...... indicating something in 5296 ?

rgds,iqyu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
You should read Shamus' thread @ http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 with regards to VSA.

Hopefully the following will give you a clue as to why the high volume... the professionals are positioning themselves as Temps had already pointed out!

To extract a quote from his 1st post -

Let’s review what just happened on the price chart here. The professional money has sold their holdings to the mass public called the “herd” or “weak holders.” The professionals sold short and the new buyers are locked into a poor position. How can price continue higher when the professional money won’t support higher prices and there are no other buyers left to buy? With no buyers left to support the price, the price falls as the chart continues on into the mark down process (see Figure 3). To explain why prices fall in any market, let’s refer to a previous statement: “For a true downtrend to occur, there must be a lack of substantial buying (demand) to support the price. The only traders that can provide this level of buying are the professional operators, but they have sold at higher price levels earlier on the chart, during the distribution phase of the market.”

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When the price falls far enough, the professional operator will now enter the market and buy (at wholesale levels) from the “weak holders,” who are forced to sell at a substantial loss, and the cycle will repeat itself over and over again. This is the way all markets work! Because professional operators specialize in many different markets and many different time frames, this same sequence of events unfold on price charts of all durations. We reviewed a 30-minute chart in this article, but it could just as easily have been a weekly chart. The market we looked at was forex, but volume spread analysis works just as well in stocks, futures and commodities. VSA is a market analysis methodology that alerts the trader to the two most important questions that they must know the answers to in order to trade successfully — why and when. Why markets move is based on the supply and demand from professional operators, and when they move can be expanded upon once the trader has a more thorough understanding of volume spread analysis.

Excellent read and well worth it. Unfortunately the Spot market does not give a true representation of volume... only the Futures market does.
  • #252,449
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:10am Sep 12, 2010 10:10am
u guys keep looking for bear but how about i am looking to buy dip from ~ 1.53 area till 1.55-1.57?

..by then only i will take my swing bear setting...
  • #252,450
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:18am Sep 12, 2010 10:18am
Best post I've seen from a newbie, it happened in Cable 101:

Quoting austraderk
There is no real holy grail, only the chance to prepare for an opportunity if it ever eventuates.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=479

Finally, I see that a lot of guy are troubled by Nene's existence. He's a very "nice" guy

Peace to all!
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #252,451
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:22am Sep 12, 2010 10:22am
Quoting geniusztc
hello,everyone .it is my analysis about gu's s&r.i am not sure ,is there anything wrong with my lines.thank you
Your support and resistance are in order, but do you believe they are? That's what matters most.

Peace
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #252,452
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:33am Sep 12, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Temps
Perhaps significant that cable had the highest volume in six weeks on that up move.... smart money selling maybe and I would say a lot of stop losses were taken out, but as we all know cable is not the most predictable pair, good luck with your trades..
Is that chart from the Futures market Temps as it differs from your other charts? I have no access to Futures... yet! One step at a time!
  • #252,453
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:34am Sep 12, 2010 10:34am
Looks like we have a deal, now let's see the detail and how the extra buffer of 2.5% will translate in currency prices. Germany already alluded late on Friday that their banks would need an extra 105Bn in tier I capital. Some say that the loan to capital ratio EU wide would need to come down by about 1Trn to meet Basel III.

This is going to be an interesting week to say the least.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...atestheadlines
  • #252,454
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:39am Sep 12, 2010 10:39am
Quoting cloggie
Looks like we have a deal, now let's see the detail and how the extra buffer of 2.5% will translate in currency prices. Germany already alluded late on Friday that their banks would need an extra 105Bn in tier I capital. Some say that the loan to capital ratio EU wide would need to come down by about 1Trn to meet Basel III.

This is going to be an interesting week to say the least.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...atestheadlines
A week in the life of a forex trader is always interesting.
  • #252,455
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:42am Sep 12, 2010 10:42am
i see you have experience in VSA

how you interpret this bbakker ?

TQ.

Rgds,iqyu



Quoting bbakker
You should read Shamus' thread @ http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 with regards to VSA.

Hopefully the following will give you a clue as to why the high volume... the professionals are positioning themselves as Temps had already pointed out!

To extract a quote from his 1st post -

Let’s review what just happened on the price chart here. The professional money has sold their holdings to the mass public called the “herd” or “weak holders.” The professionals sold short and the new buyers are locked into a poor...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sept12a.gif Size: 32 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #252,456
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:43am Sep 12, 2010 10:43am
Quoting bbakker
Is that chart from the Futures market Temps as it differs from your other charts? I have no access to Futures... yet!
It is just a standard Metatrader 4 chart, the volume seems to give a fair idea of stop reverse areas .........
  • #252,457
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:56am Sep 12, 2010 10:56am
Quoting cloggie
Looks like we have a deal, now let's see the detail and how the extra buffer of 2.5% will translate in currency prices. Germany already alluded late on Friday that their banks would need an extra 105Bn in tier I capital. Some say that the loan to capital ratio EU wide would need to come down by about 1Trn to meet Basel III.

This is going to be an interesting week to say the least.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...atestheadlines
More tightening of the bank's belts. To quote Laurel and Hardy... "Well, here's another nice mess you've gotten me into."

I like Jim Rogers, also for the fact that the Tharp Trader Test that I took showed that I had the same psychological trading profile as him, who says it, as it is -

Inserted Video


Numerous videos on YouTube giving his views on the markets! Forget trading... I'm going to turn to farming
  • #252,458
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:02am Sep 12, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Precap2
Best post I've seen from a newbie, it happened in Cable 101:


http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=479

Finally, I see that a lot of guy are troubled by Nene's existence. He's a very "nice" guy

Peace to all!
dun ever so confident to post a chart with ur ticket order or buy/sell position....just use other chart n post only ur figure...
  • #252,459
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:09am Sep 12, 2010 11:09am
Quoting cloggie
Looks like we have a deal, now let's see the detail and how the extra buffer of 2.5% will translate in currency prices. Germany already alluded late on Friday that their banks would need an extra 105Bn in tier I capital. Some say that the loan to capital ratio EU wide would need to come down by about 1Trn to meet Basel III.

This is going to be an interesting week to say the least.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...atestheadlines
this must be negative for risk, i.e. GBP/USD as well...eur/chf also...
  • #252,460
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:15am Sep 12, 2010 11:15am
Quoting iqyu5an
i see you have experience in VSA

how you interpret this bbakker ?

TQ.

Rgds,iqyu
I have no experience in VSA or trading using VSA. You should ask Malcolmb or Shamus. I have read up on VSA and it seems like a very useful tool. As Temps already stated and with myself quoting from Shamus' thread, we are in the accumulation phase, hence the current ranging and usually when you see high volume on an upbar with a long candle wick at the top, it indicates the professionals positioning themselves on the short side.

The professionals/market makers can't just buy or sell in one go without it affecting price adversely, so they do it by stealth in these accumulation phases. I suggest you read the thread in detail as it explains VSA very well and fits the demand/supply methodology nicely.

Therefore, I am with Temps, Cloggie and kuroro001 and my current stance on h4 is bearish until we hit the 1.514ish area, when I will be looking for a swing trade. The recent low (7th Sept) is a reaction to the speedbump from mid/end July and it is quite possible we could turn north again from the lows of the 7th. Nobody knows until it actually happens. All we can do is to plan our trades accordingly.

I wish you success with your trading.
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